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Morgan Housel on Economic Forecasts, Resolutions, and Writing
Motley Fool Money
The allure of predictions and the wisdom of reviewing past predictions
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People are drawn to predictions because they reduce uncertainty and provide a sense of comfort. However, Nassim Taleb advises reviewing past predictions before making new ones. He suggests that financial commentators should be required to staple their previous year's predictions to their new ones, but acknowledges that people are reluctant to do so.
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