
The Intelligence: America’s deeply divided electorate
The Intelligence from The Economist
Understanding American Voter Preferences Based on Demographics
A statistical model was created to predict how American voters might cast their ballots based on demographic traits. Data from UGov was used to build a voter generator tool that predicts voting preferences based on demographic information. The key insight is that religion, not race, is a significant predictor of voting behavior, with a high percentage of Mormons and Evangelicals supporting Trump, while atheists are less likely to support him. These relationships have remained stable since 2020.
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