Podcast covers America's divided electorate with an interactive model predicting voter behavior. Discusses allegations of extortion at Gaza crossing and pays tribute to an IRA bombmaker. Explores demographics and voting patterns, as well as the extraordinary life of a debutante-turned-militant activist.
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Quick takeaways
Trump's shifting abortion stance sparks controversy in Arizona, influencing swing state dynamics.
New backers boosting Trump's support include swing voters prioritizing economic issues, impacting Biden's reelection prospects.
Deep dives
Donald Trump's Shifting Abortion Stance and its Political Implications
Donald Trump's maneuvering on abortion issues during the presidential campaign has stirred controversy, with Republican lawmakers in Arizona proposing strict abortion bans while Trump himself softened his stance. The election race remains tight, with Trump inching ahead in swing states, causing concern for Joe Biden's reelection prospects.
Factors Influencing Trump's Electoral Support
Trump's support stems largely from his base of white voters without college degrees and white evangelical Christians, consistent with his 2020 backing. However, new backers, crucial for Trump's rise in the polls, include those who wandered from major party candidates, first-time voters, and swing voters, particularly impacting voters shifting from Biden to Trump.
Key Issues Influencing Swing Voters and Strategies for Biden
Swing voters prioritize issues like inflation, jobs, and healthcare, differing from committed partisans who focus on culture war topics. To win back these swing voters, Biden may need to emphasize defending Obamacare and issues concerning parents, as swing voters exhibit looser party affiliations and less political engagement compared to staunch partisans.
We have combined polling data to make a detailed portrait of the American electorate. Have a tinker with our interactive model: plug in their age, sex, religion, and more, and let us estimate how your hypothetical voter will vote in the presidential election. Allegations of extortion at the Rafah crossing out of Gaza (09:57). And, a tribute to an heiress-turned-IRA bombmaker (20:17).