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Moody's Talks - Inside Economics cover image

Bonus Episode: Assessing the Macroeconomic Consequences of Biden vs. Trump

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

NOTE

Probability of Biden Winning the Presidency and Impact on Congress

The most likely scenario outlined in the paper is that Biden wins the presidency with a 40% probability. This scenario also involves a divided Congress, with Republicans likely to win the Senate due to Joe Manchin's retirement. The Democrats would only need to win a few more seats in the House to have a majority. This scenario suggests a policy-wise status quo with a continuation of current policies.

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