2min snip

INSIGHT

Inflation Outlook for 2025

Core PCE inflation is currently around 2%, and drivers like rebalancing in the labor market and slower wage growth suggest it will continue to decrease.
Lagging components, such as housing, should also help lower inflation.
Tariffs will counteract this trend, adding 0.4% to inflation under the baseline scenario (China plus auto tariffs).
This results in a revised core PCE inflation forecast of 2.4% by the end of next year.
Across-the-board tariffs could push inflation to around 3% or higher by the end of next year.

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