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MacroVoices #436 Tian Yang: Left & Right Tails
Macro Voices
Anticipate Inflation Shifts Over Time
Inflation predictions require careful consideration of time horizons, as insights can vary significantly depending on the duration examined. Structurally, looking two to three years ahead indicates a clear risk of rising inflation. Meanwhile, cyclical factors suggest a six to twelve-month view influenced by the business cycle, and tactical perspectives focus on immediate one to three-month outcomes driven by recent data. Understanding these time frames is essential to navigating inflation expectations effectively.
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