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MacroVoices #436 Tian Yang: Left & Right Tails
Macro Voices
Anticipate Inflation Shifts Over Time
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Inflation predictions require careful consideration of time horizons, as insights can vary significantly depending on the duration examined. Structurally, looking two to three years ahead indicates a clear risk of rising inflation. Meanwhile, cyclical factors suggest a six to twelve-month view influenced by the business cycle, and tactical perspectives focus on immediate one to three-month outcomes driven by recent data. Understanding these time frames is essential to navigating inflation expectations effectively.
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