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FiveThirtyEight Politics cover image

The View From New Hampshire

FiveThirtyEight Politics

NOTE

Trump's Coalition and Personal Connection with Supporters in New Hampshire

The Trump campaign is building an argument that his opponents in New Hampshire are supported by Democrats, while he is the choice for Republicans. In the 2016 election, many new and irregular voters were drawn to Trump due to his personal connection with them, which polling failed to capture. Additionally, some Republicans initially underestimated Trump, but now in New Hampshire, many are determined to vote for him again due to his policy deliverance, despite disliking the chaos. Trump's unwavering connection with a set of voters in New Hampshire is likened to a rock concert atmosphere, with supporters not necessarily staying for his whole speech, but simply wanting to be in his presence. They see themselves in him and describe themselves as fanatically devoted, emphasizing that they perceive him as a non-politician.

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