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Rely on Realized Data for Monetary Policy
Amid discussions on a potential recession and policy errors, it is crucial to focus on realized data for monetary policy decisions rather than relying on uncertain forecasts. Realizing that the unemployment rate is rising and on track to surpass expectations, along with core inflation still decreasing, indicates a need for a less restrictive policy stance. Various monetary policy rules suggest the necessity for a cut in policy relatively soon, emphasizing the importance of basing decisions on factual data rather than speculation.