Top economist Neil Dutta warns of a possible Fed policy error due to delayed action on inflation concerns. Discusses risks of unemployment uptick, lack of upside inflation sources, and potential soft landing blow. Examines market performance, labor trends, and monetary policy adjustments.
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Quick takeaways
The Federal Reserve may be risking a policy error by waiting too long to confirm inflation returning to target.
Concerns about potential recession and the need for policy recalibration arise from indicators like rising unemployment and slowing growth.
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Fed's Monetary Policy and Economic Concerns
Discussions on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy revolve around potential risks in the economy, such as labor market softening and inflation trends. Analyzing data like unemployment rate increases and slowing growth, concerns arise about a possible recession and the need for a recalibration of policy. The podcast delves into the complexities of economic indicators and their implications on the Fed's decision-making process.
Neil Dutta, the top economist over at Renaissance Macro, has generally been sunny and optimistic about the economy over the last four years or so. But now he's warning of a possible mistake by the Federal Reserve. In his view, the central bank is waiting too long to get confirmation that inflation is coming back to target. Meanwhile, unemployment is starting to creep up in a meaningful way. As he sees it, if you're still worried about upside risk to inflation at this point, you need to have a theory about where that inflation is going to come from — and it's really hard to come up with an answer for that right now, given the general downward momentum in hiring and the overall economy. In this episode of Lots More, we catch up with Neil to talk about the risk that the Fed will blow the soft landing.