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#144 David Rosenberg: Recessionary Forces Are Building And The Economy Is Weaker Than The Narrative Suggests

The Julia La Roche Show

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Scrutinizing National Accounts beyond GDP Growth

The speaker questions the reliability of GDP growth as a sole measure of national accounts, attributing the growth to non-recurring items. They emphasize the importance of distinguishing between recurring and non-recurring elements, expressing skepticism about the sustainability of GDP growth. While non-farm payrolls show a positive 1.9% year-over-year increase, the household survey indicates a flat trend, highlighting a historical disparity between the two labor market indicators. The speaker suggests that the household survey is more adept at identifying economic cycle turning points and notes a shift from full-time to part-time employment.

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