Economist David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, shares his macroeconomic view of the economy and explains why he’s not throwing in the towel on his recession call.

Rosenberg highlights the importance of understanding the business cycle and the impact of interest rates. While many economists have thrown in the towel on their recession calls, Rosenberg remains in the recession camp, pointing out that the economy is weaker than the narrative suggests. He also emphasizes looking at the full picture, noting the divergences in various economic indicators. 

Elsewhere, Rosenberg provides insights into the Federal Reserve's rate policy and its implications for bond and equity markets. Rosenberg is bullish on bonds and explains how you could make a 20% total return in the 30-year Treasury.

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Timestamps

00:00 Introduction, welcome, macro picture

0:54 Economists throwing in the recession towel

2:55 State of the consumer

4:15 Fiscal stimulus

6:40 Bullish on bonds, sees equity-like returns 

7:30 Recession call 

10:30 Bifurcation and divergencies in the markets and economy 

12:00 GDP and GDI 

14:00 Growth in credit card usage, epic drawdown in personal savings

15:00 Employment 

22:30 Fiscal policy likely to be a drag

24:30 Household balance sheets - auto loans and credit card delinquencies 

26:30 GDP likely close to flat this year

28:30 Outlook for Federal Reserve rate policy, need to go to 2.5%

35:45 Yield curve, why you could make more than 20% total return in 30-year Treasury bond

38:20 Implications equity markets if Fed cuts rates

44:30 Stock market has become a bidding war

48:27 Equity risk premium 

53:33 Bob Farrell's influence

57:44 Parting thoughts