David Rosenberg: A 2023 Recession Is Unavoidable
Supply Shock
What to Expect from Assets in 2019
Assets will perform better next year as the bond market falls and the Fed becomes more hawkish./nStocks will be valued more highly than they are now, providing support to the market at low points.
On today's episode of On the Margin, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research joins the show to answer the question: "Have we hit the bear market low?".
We start with David's view that the market is still overpriced and the overwhelming odds of a recession in 2023. He explains why the yield curve is the most important variable, what to watch in the bond market and how a consumer default cycle will play out. We then finish the discussion on supply-side inflation, why David expects deflation is on the horizon and what to expect next!
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Referenced In The Show:
Rosenberg Research
https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/
Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises
https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/1137525754
Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation
https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/91360.Devil_Take_the_Hindmost
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:16) Have We Hit The Bear Market Low?
(11:30) Will The Fed Break The Market?
(21:10) What Does A Default Cycle Look Like?
(29:26) When Will Reality Set In For Consumers?
(37:26) Circle Ad
(38:46) Has J Powell Over-Tightened?
(44:54) Supply-Driven Inflation
(52:54) Which Assets Get Bid First In A Recovery?
(1:02:28) The US Outlook
(1:05:39) People Don’t Learn From History
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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