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The Insight: Conversations – Special Episode with Annie Duke and Howard Marks

The Memo by Howard Marks

NOTE

The Importance of Probability in Decision Making

In a world of probabilistic outcomes, it's difficult to make decisions when everything settles to one or zero. Whether it's a football game or the chance of rain, outcomes are binary and it's hard to remember their probabilistic nature once they're settled. We tend to think in deterministic terms of winning or losing. How do we construct probabilities when faced with this challenge?

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