Choiceology with Katy Milkman cover image

Top of Mind: With Guests John Farrell & Manasvini Singh

Choiceology with Katy Milkman

00:00

The Availability Heuristic and Common Errors in Judging the Future

Our judgment of the future can be skewed by the availability heuristic, a tendency to rely on recent, vivid, or easily recalled information when forming assessments. This heuristic leads us to overemphasize events that are memorable or have been recently discussed. Recency bias and vividness bias are related phenomena that contribute to this tendency. For instance, vividness bias explains why people fear sharks despite the low likelihood of shark-related deaths. By understanding these biases, we can become more aware of our tendency to make errors in judgment when predicting future outcomes.

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