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Flirting with Models cover image

Bill Gebhardt - Replicating Discretionary Commodity Trading Systematically (S7E9)

Flirting with Models

NOTE

Doubt the Stability of Relationships

Belief in stable statistical relationships is crucial for effective optimization, yet history shows this can be misleading. The collapse of Long-Term Capital Management exemplifies the risks of over-relying on seemingly stable correlations that can quickly become unstable. In energy and commodity markets, small changes in price can drastically alter correlations, leading to significant uncertainty. As evidenced by the failures of correlation-driven models during the 2008 financial crisis, assumptions based on stable relationships can reinforce dangerous reliance on flawed optimization strategies. A more prudent approach involves recognizing uncertainty, weight various possibilities, and maintaining skepticism about the stability of market relationships to avoid catastrophic miscalculations.

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