On today's episode of On the Margin, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research joins the show to answer the question: "Have we hit the bear market low?".
We start with David's view that the market is still overpriced and the overwhelming odds of a recession in 2023. He explains why the yield curve is the most important variable, what to watch in the bond market and how a consumer default cycle will play out. We then finish the discussion on supply-side inflation, why David expects deflation is on the horizon and what to expect next!
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Referenced In The Show:
Rosenberg Research
https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/
Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises
https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/1137525754
Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation
https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/91360.Devil_Take_the_Hindmost
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:16) Have We Hit The Bear Market Low?
(11:30) Will The Fed Break The Market?
(21:10) What Does A Default Cycle Look Like?
(29:26) When Will Reality Set In For Consumers?
(37:26) Circle Ad
(38:46) Has J Powell Over-Tightened?
(44:54) Supply-Driven Inflation
(52:54) Which Assets Get Bid First In A Recovery?
(1:02:28) The US Outlook
(1:05:39) People Don’t Learn From History
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
