Investors may believe they possess asymmetric information from a private company's historical performance, allowing them to better navigate public markets. However, the transition to public markets introduces significant variability and challenges, such as activist investors and short-sellers, which can alter the landscape dramatically. The understanding of a company's trajectory, especially from capable founders who excel at pivoting, plays a crucial role in managing investment risk. Companies often evolve from their original business models to entirely different ones, as seen with industry giants like Google, Netflix, and Amazon. Thus, while historical insight can be valuable, the ability to adapt and interpret current market dynamics is essential for achieving long-term returns.

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