20VC: Why the IPO Market is not Closed | Why Revenue Multiples are BS and Founders Need to Change | Advice From Jack Ma, Jamie Dimon and Evan Spiegel | Lessons from Taking Snap & Alibaba Public with Imran Khan
Aug 26, 2024
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Imran Khan, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Proem Asset Management, shares his expert insights on the IPO market, emphasizing its current stagnation and the inflated revenue expectations that hinder companies from going public. He discusses the unfortunate state of M&A and how founders must adapt their mindset towards acquisitions amidst regulatory challenges. Additionally, Imran explores the complex landscape of AI investments, reflecting on the lessons learned from taking Alibaba public, while offering valuable advice from entrepreneurs like Jack Ma and Jamie Dimon.
The current IPO market presents opportunities for companies willing to realign their valuation expectations with public market realities.
A shift from public to private markets has created challenges in operational talent, hindering the growth of innovative ideas in startups.
Founders should prioritize building solid cash flow-generating businesses over worrying about initial valuations to ensure sustainable long-term value.
Deep dives
Challenges in the IPO Market
The current IPO market is not entirely closed; rather, companies hesitate to go public due to inflated valuation expectations. Many firms raised significant capital at unsustainable valuations during the low interest rates of 2020 and 2021, leading to a mismatch with public market realities. While public markets may offer valuations based on cash flow that are more aligned with realistic earnings multiples, many private companies are still clinging to overly optimistic expectations. This disconnect results in missed opportunities for public offerings as founders fail to reset their valuation outlook based on changing market conditions.
Talent and Execution in Private Markets
A significant shift in recent years has seen capital flow from public to private markets, primarily due to the desire to reduce performance volatility. However, this trend has led to challenges, including illiquidity and a shortage of talented individuals capable of executing ideas within these private firms. While there are many promising concepts in the private space, a lack of operational talent hampers progress, limiting actual growth and success. Consequently, the potential of these companies often remains unrealized as they struggle to convert innovative ideas into profitable ventures.
The Importance of Going Public
Founders are advised to consider going public sooner rather than later, as the value creation comes from building a solid business that generates cash flow over time. While public market fluctuations can affect stock prices, overemphasis on valuation can distract leaders from their primary responsibility of operational management and growth. Employees' morale should not be solely tied to external stock prices, as a strong corporate culture fosters loyalty regardless of market fluctuations. Hence, focusing on building a successful business rather than obsessing over initial valuations will ultimately lead to sustainable value over the long term.
The Role of Public Markets in Innovation
Public markets provide vital feedback mechanisms that can invigorate companies, encouraging them to adapt and pivot according to market demands. The nature of public markets, with diverse investors constantly assessing performance, compels companies to make necessary adjustments and enhancements informed by a wider array of perspectives. Moreover, numerous successful innovations stem from publicly traded companies, which leverage their visibility and resources to create impactful technologies and services. Overall, the public arena not only aids in risk management but also propels significant advancements across industries.
Navigating Investor Expectations
Investor expectations play a crucial role in how companies approach their IPO strategies, particularly when it comes to pricing. While some investors advocate for ensuring a robust first day pop in stock prices by underpricing IPOs, others argue that this short-sighted focus neglects long-term relationship-building with new investors. Engaging public market investors should be treated as the beginning of a lasting partnership rather than a one-off transaction. Therefore, establishing new relationships with investors by offering them slightly more upside at the outset could foster goodwill and ensure ongoing support in the future.
Imran Khan is the OG of IPOs having taken some of the biggest companies public including Alibaba, Snap, Box, Weibo and more. Today, Imran is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Proem Asset Management. Prior to co-founding Proem, Imran served as Snap Inc.’s Chief Strategy Officer. Under his leadership, Snap’s annual revenue run rate increased to $1.6 billion from zero in less than four years. Previously, Imran was a Managing Director and Head of Global Internet Investment Banking at Credit Suisse where he advised on more than $45 billion-worth of Internet M&A and financing transactions.
In Today's Episode with Imran Khan We Discuss:
1. The IPO Market: When Does it Open:
How does Imran assess the state of the IPO market today?
Can companies really go out with $100-$200M in revenue?
Will we see revenue multiples reflate? Can venture continue as an asset class if they do not?
When does Imran expect the IPO market to really open?
2. Is M&A F******:
How does Imran assess the state of the M&A market today?
How do founders need to change how they think about M&A? Why are they to blame for the lack of M&A activity we have today?
To what extent can we blame Lina Khan for the lack of M&A?
Why would a company go do an M&A process today when it is unlikely to be approved by the SEC?
Why does Imran believe in the case of Wiz, it was a mistake for the company not to do the M&A?
3. AI's $600BN Question: Capex Spend:
How does Imran analyse the insane capex spend we are seeing from Meta, Google and Amazon?
How does Zuck not having his cash cow as the cloud business change how he can act?
How does this compare to Google's capex spend 20 years ago? What can we learn from that?
4. Going Public: The Process, The Players and Jack Ma & Jamie Dimon:
What is the literal process to take a company public?
Who sets the price? What do large institutions want in companies going public?
What are some of Imran's biggest lessons from taking Snap and Alibaba public?
What are some of Imran's biggest lessons from Jack Ma, Jamie Dimon and Evan Spiegel?
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