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How to Live in an Anxious World: Uncertainty, Agency, and Resilience
Being Well with Forrest Hanson and Dr. Rick Hanson
Understanding Expert Predictions: The Role of Uncertainty and Anxiety
Expert predictions often fall short of accuracy, particularly due to the nature of low sample size events, which are difficult to assess given the scarcity of prior knowledge. A small percentage of individuals may consistently outperform others in prediction accuracy, but even those labeled as experts can fail significantly, sometimes worse than random chance. Predictions around unprecedented events, like political changes or other rare occurrences, lack the necessary data for reliable forecasting. The inherent uncertainty in such situations breeds anxiety, as the unknown can be unsettling. However, this uncertainty also offers a chance to adjust expectations about potential outcomes, encouraging individuals to reconsider their confidence in negative predictions. Embracing this uncertainty can help mitigate discomfort and foster a more nuanced understanding of the complexities involved in forecasting future events.
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