"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis cover image

Surveying 2,700+ AI Researchers on the Industry's Future with Katja Grace of AI Impacts

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

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Analyzing Methodology of AI Researcher Data Collection

The process involves obtaining various year-probability pairs from participants to create a probability distribution, with different results obtained based on how the question is framed. By averaging the results from different methodologies, a more unbiased and accurate final aggregate representation can be achieved. To simplify data collection, a gamma distribution formula is fitted to the pairs provided by users. Different framing of questions, like asking for a year with a specific probability or a probability at a certain year, results in varied responses and influences the final aggregated curve representing the likelihood of technology phenomena over time.

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