Understanding the Planning Fallacy: How we Underestimate Time to Complete Projects

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The planning fallacy is a tendency to underestimate the time it will take to complete a project despite prior knowledge that similar projects have taken longer. Diagnosing and treating the planning fallacy can improve future planning endeavors. Roger Bueller and colleagues measured the planning fallacy using honors students working on thesis projects. The average prediction for thesis completion time was 33.9 days.

Whether it’s a giant infrastructure plan or a humble kitchen renovation, it’ll inevitably take way too long and cost way too much. That’s because you suffer from “the planning fallacy.” (You also have an “optimism bias” and a bad case of overconfidence.) But don’t worry: we’ve got the solution.