Economy Watch

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the global economic expansion is losing pace, led by the US.But first up today, the overnight full dairy auction pulled back, and expected, but perhaps not be as much as the derivatives markets suggested. In the end prices were down -1.6% in USD terms and -3.0% in NZD terms on a rising Kiwi dollar. It was a mixed picture across the commodities offered.In the US, the weekly Redbook retail monitor pulled back last week to be 'only' +4.9% higher than the same week a year ago. That is a sharpish dip from the prior week's +6.1% and mid-April's +7.4%. Much of this may be attributable to tariff-tax increases, with sales volumes easing faster now.Meanwhile, April job openings were little-changed but they did come in slightly higher than expected at 7.4 mln. We get the May non-farm payrolls report this Saturday (NZT) and that is expected to show a modest +130,000 rise.Meanwhile April factory orders came in weak, down a sharp -3.7% following the boosted March gain of +3.4%. Between the two months, a slight easing that was setting in since November. From April 2024 these order levels are up +0.6% and that is before accounting for inflation.The US Logistics Managers Index rose, but because inventory costs, warehousing utilisation, and transportation prices all rose at a faster rate, probably not the indicators that help their economy.But the latest RCM/TIPP optimism survey did rise for 'positive' reasons, but only back to levels it was in November after retreating rather sharply from a February high. The tariff-tax staggers may be easing among investors and the surveyors say this indicates US "consumers are closer to optimism".In Canada, Canadians have so heavily altered their travel plans to the US that the duty-free stores at the border seem to be on their knees in what is being called a 'collapse'.In South Korea, the candidate of the more liberal Democratic Party seems to be the winner of Tuesday's snap presidential election. It is a clear break, with voters turning away from the conservative party, who’s previous President triggered their constitutional crisis. It’s a win for the rule of law. The other main candidate has conceded.In China, they have delivered something of a surprise. The May Caixin China factory PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48.3, down from April’s expanding 50.4 and missing market forecasts of a faster expansion (50.6). This was the first contraction in the sector in eight months and the steepest since September 2022. Output shrank alongside a renewed drop in new orders, with foreign sales declining at a faster pace. The official factory PMI came in at 49.5, a small improvement (lesser decline).Eurozone consumer price inflation eased to 1.9% in May, down from 2.2% in April and below market expectations of 2.0%. With inflation under control, that gives the ECB some room to trim interest rates further at their Friday (NZT) review.Globally, the OECD has lowered its economic expansion forecasts as the Trump tariff-taxes bite, and the US an economy they see suffering as much as others from the impact.That is spurring free trade talks among other nations, especially between Australia and the EU.In Australia, their Fair Work Commission’s Expert Panel announced the National Minimum Wage and award wages will increase by +3.5% from 1 July 2025, following the 2024-25 Annual Wage Review. That means their National Minimum Wage will increase by +AU$0.85 to AU$24.95 per hour. (NZ$26.90/hr) The New Zealand adult minimum wage is currently $23.50/hr.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.46%, and unchanged from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,353/oz, and down -US$22 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +50 USc in the US at just over US$63.50/bbl and the international Brent price is up +US$1 at US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.1 USc, a -10 bps dip from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at just on 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 52.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.1 and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$105,965 and up +1.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the Americans seem to be making a concerted effort to adopt a stagflation policy. The USD is falling toward a three year low, gold is rising again, as are US benchmark interest rates.But first, the week ahead will feature central bank rate decisions from Canada (expect a hold at 2.75%), the ECB (-25 bps to 2.15%) and India (-25 bps to 5.75%). And the week will end with the US non-farm payrolls report (+130,000 and extending the ho-hum trend).But the week will be dominated by factory and service sector PMIs, closely watched for the consequences of trade war activity. More damage came from the US over the weekend with the doubling of steel tariffs, from 25% to 50%. These are certain to make the US steel industry even less competitive globally, embedding higher producer costs for American factories and higher prices for its customers.We can see that from the latest ISM factory PMI for May, where a small contraction is now taking place, and the cost pressures are still very high. The final S&P/Markit May factory PMI recorded the most cost pressure since 2022, but a tiny expansion in this one.China released its official PMIs over the weekend, with the factory version contracting much less, and their services little-changed in a tiny expansion. Inflation pressures aren't evident here. The US trade pressure may be preventing China's economy from growing much but it isn't pushing it into a contraction. And so far, Beijing has resisted Trump's request for a phone call with Xi.And there were May PMIs out for Japan (contracting less), Canada,(holding a sharp contraction) Taiwan (contracting less), Korea (small contraction, but stable) Singapore (stable small contraction) and Australia (stable but expanding a bit less) on Monday. So this set isn't yet showing much change, but the trade war does seem to be embedding stagnation. Inflation doesn't seem to be much of a problem here, it is only the US that is getting them both.Stagnation without inflation does allow central banks to try a rate cut remedy - a remedy not available to the Americans.In China they are applying both monetary (lower rates) and fiscal policies (more spending) to stabilise their situation. Beijing is spending big to counter the downward pressure on its economy. As a result, the country’s broad fiscal deficit expanded at its quickest clip since 2023 in the first four months of 2025, reaching a -¥2.7 tln (-NZ$630 bln) deficit in the period, almost 60% more than in the same period in 2024.They need all of that because it is pretty clear their real estate sector slump isn't anywhere near over yet, despite all the official help for it.We should also note that it is a holiday in China today, for Dragon Boat Festival.India reported Q1-2025 GDP outcomes, claiming a heady expansion of +7.4% from a year earlier, far better than the +6.7% expected and the +6.4% expansion in Q4-2024. This expansion was led by both the construction sector, and consumer spending.And Canada also reported an expanding economy in Q1-2025, gaining +0.5% in the quarter to be +2.2% higher for the year. Both these indicators of economic activity are better than analysts had expected. Of course these are only of historical interest because they pre-date the tariff-war actions of the US that started in April.Back in the US, the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey recovered its early month drop in the second half of the month, ending similar to the April level. The pause in the tariff war and the hope this would ease inflation pressures during the survey period was said to be behind the mood change. Still, this level is very pessimistic, -24% lower than year-ago levels.In Australia, job ad growth has turned into a decline, with the number of job ads dropping -1.2% in May from April, when they fell a downwardly revised -0.3%. Year on year they are down -5.7% although they remained +14% higher than pre-pandemic levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.46%, and up +6 bps from Friday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,375/oz, and up +US$86 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$2 in the US at just under US$63/bbl and the international Brent price is just under US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.2 USc, a +50 bps rise from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at just on 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 52.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.2 and up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$104,272 and down -0.9% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the legality of the US tariff taxes is now under court scrutiny.But first, US initial jobless claims rose +10,000 last week from the prior week to 212,000 when seasonal factors suggested it should have fallen -7,000. (The headline number was +240,000.) There are now 1.78 mln people on these benefits, +120,000 more than this time last year or a +7% rise.There was an update to the Q1-2025 US GDP growth rate out overnight, and it was little-changed, still showing a stall. Now they say it contracted at an annualised rate of -0.2% in the quarter, a slight improvement from the initial estimate of a -0.3% decline. However, it is still the first quarterly GDP contraction in three years. The slight improvement was driven by stronger-than-expected investment, which partially offset weaker consumer spending and a larger-than-anticipated drag from trade.The same data showed corporate profits fell sharply in the period and could continue to be squeezed this year by higher costs from tariffs.Pending home sales retreated an outsized -6.3% in April from March, far more than the -0.9% drop anticipated by analysts and fully erasing the revised +5.5% increase in March. The industry blames "high interest rates".The US Treasury 7yr bond auction today was supported a bit better than the prior event, resulting in a median yield of 4.14% compared to the 4.07% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In a US Federal Court, the Trump Administration lost a key case challenging the imposition of his "Liberation Day" tariffs, where it was claimed the President didn't have the authority to impose them without Congressional approval. The issue will end up in the US Supreme Court soon for 'final' resolution. If it doesn't go Trump's way in his stacked court, things could get 'interesting'.In Japan, consumer sentiment is still trending down after peaking in March 2024. But the May survey recorded a bounce back from the unusual drop in April.In Australia, capex investment is not growing, especially for plant and equipment. And that is a hesitation in the rising trend that started in 2014 and continued until September 2024. The recent Q1-2025 data softness seems to be embedding.Globally, passenger air travel demand was up +8.0% with international travel demand rising almost +11%. In the Asia/Pacific region it was up more than +14%. Wanderlust is back fully after the pandemic period.Air cargo demand was up +5.8% in April, up +10% in the Asia/Pacific region, no doubt boosted by the rush to beat US tariffs.Meanwhile, container freight rates rose +10% last week from the week before to be -41% lower than year-ago levels. Trade uncertainty surrounding 'new' tariff-taxes is causing the current scramble to get goods moved. Bulk cargo rates dipped -2.5% in the past week however.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.43%, and down -5 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,322/oz, and up +US$26 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$1 at just under US$61/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now at US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.9 USc, a +30 bps rise from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at just under 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 52.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 68 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,229 and down -1.1% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Tuesday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the trade chaos and tariff-war skirmishes have markets worldwide watching for inflation signals as much as growth signals.First, in the US their Redbook retail index was up +6.1% last week from the same week a year ago, driven increasingly by tariff-tax price increases, which is why this metric is diverging so much from the formal retail sales volume data.American mortgage applications fell last week from the prior week. That is consistent with the benchmark 30 year mortgage rate rising, now almost touching 7% again.The Richmond Fed's regional factory survey came in negative again in May with activity slowing and new order levels still quite weak. The service sector report for the same mid-Atlantic region was weaker too. In both cases they recorded price pressures over +6%.The Dallas Fed services survey was just as negative, in fact even more so. Input prices are a real issue here too, over 5%..The well-supported US Treasury 5 year bond auction continued the trend of bidders wanting and getting higher risk premiums. This one delivered a median yield of 4.01%, up from 3.93% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.The minutes of the May 8 (NZT) Fed meeting released overnight revealed policymakers are uncertain on how to assess the future risks of inflation and their labour market, and how they can meet their dual mandate when forces are pushing in different directions. They seem to see the inflation risks are the key priority. They are also watching the USD depreciation because that too brings inflation risks. For them, it is a waiting game.India's April industrial production expansion slowed from March, but not by as much as was expected. It seems to be settling in at an under +3% rate which is far more modest than the overall economic expansion there. India's economic rise isn't really being built on manufacturing prowess. Of course the trade and tariff-war backdrop won't be helping.Euro area inflation expectations are rising again, and came in at 3.1% in the latest survey (in April) for the ECB, results they won't have liked. These expectations are back to early 2024 levels, unwinding the progress the ECB policymakers had thought they had won.In Australia, their monthly inflation indicator, also for April, shows it stuck at 2.4%. A small easing was expected but didn't eventuate. But 2.4% isn't a killer level and probably doesn't change expectations that the RBA will keep reducing its cash rate target, currently at 3.85%, by another -25 bps at their next meeting on July 8, 2025. A lot could change in between however, and analysts will be watching for upside risks.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.48%, and up +4 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,296/oz, and down -US$6 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$1.50 at just on US$62/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now at US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down at 59.6 USc, a small +10 bps rise from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +50 bps at just under 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 52.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just under 67.9 and back up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,462 and down -2.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news a relief rally is underway on Wall Street, responding to the delays in tariffs by the US on EU goods.But first, an update of the overnight dairy Pulse auction where prices for both SMP and WMP slipped although less than the futures market had suggested. The WMP was down -2.7% in USD from the prior week's full event, and a bit more in NZD. To be fair both prices had risen sharply since April but this pullback still leaves it in a rising trend despite today's adjustment.Data releases resumed in the US after their weekend holiday with durable goods orders pulling back in April after the unusually strong March gains. The pullback was largely in line with what was expected however, -6.3% lower than the prior month but up +2.7% from a year ago. Perhaps worryingly, excluding aircraft orders, nomn-defence capital goods barely budged in April, a sign that boardrooms remain skittish about future investment.\That was matched by the Dallas Fed's May factory survey where activity was reported flat with a decline in new orders.But consumers seem happier, according to the Conference Board's May survey of consumer sentiment. But it was a survey taken before the latest US threats on the EU, so there is a sense of 'relief rally' here after the China tariff pullback. However, despite the month-on-month gain, this indicator is still tracking lower on the longer term, still lower than year-ago levels.Sentiment will be challenged again soon. There were a couple of housing indicators out overnight, and both recorded falls in American house prices. The FHA one was spun as an improvement, but it wasn't. The S&P/Case-Shiller one was a gain but a tiny one and the least since mid-2023.The bond market isn't feeling any better. The latest US Treasury 2 year auction, although as well supported as usual, brought a median yield of 3.90%, up from 3.74% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.And we can note that pricing for Trump Media shares, a marketplace that basically attracts investors who are supporters, is doing terribly. TMTG is down -11% today, down -33% so far this year, down more than -50% from a year ago. To rescue itself, it says it wants to raise US$2.5 bln to shift into crypto investing. It is an idea not going down well with shareholders.Across the border, core Canadian business activity is struggling a bit too. April wholesale trade was down -0.9% from March. That is kind of a lot for a one-month impact, one that records the initial tariff-war skirmishes.Across the Pacific in China, profits at industrial firms rose +1.4% in the first four months of 2025 compared to the same four months in 2024, picking up from +0.8% growth in the January–March period. For April alone, that was a rise of +5.2% from April 2024. Having noted that, April 2024 was a weak base. Still, given the trade challenges, and that China's factories are still very export oriented and vulnerable to trade war risks, this has to be seen as a good result in the circumstances.And we should start to keep an eye on China's carmakers. It is attracting increasing scrutiny because the economic fundamentals seem to be leaking away and quite fast. It could be another 'property development' industry failure, and could have just as large consequences if it wobbles too. They have no problem making cars, and good ones. But not only are they making more than the world needs, there are serious questions as to whether they can sell them for more than they cost to make.We should probably note that South Korean consumer sentiment jumped in May, rising back to levels that were common in November 2024 and prior. The ugly confusion period when its president went full-Trump and tried a palace coup (which resulted in impeachment, one that was upheld by the courts) is now behind it and Koreans are breathing easier. The rule of law won against a power grab. South Koreans will vote in a snap presidential election on Tuesday, June 3.And still in South Korea, they should join the CPTPP and diversify its trade as part of the bloc in the face of US uncertainties, a senior trade ex-minister is saying. (New Zealand runs a huge trade deficit with Korea.)In the EU, consumer and business sentiment basically held steady in May, according to the latest update. The trade wars are not yet unnerving the Europeans.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.44%, and down -6 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,302/oz, and down -US$38 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$1 at just over US$60.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just under US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down at 59.5 USc, a -½c retreat from yesterday at this time as commodity currencies are out of favour today. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at just on 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just over 67.6 and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,309 and up another +1.2% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.2%.Check back with us at 2pm for the RBNZ's May Monetary Policy Statement and OCR review. As you will knwo by now, 'everyone' expects a -25 bps cut. But the outlook from there is reasonably clouded, so Governor Hawkesby's analysis at 3pm is keenly awaited. We will have full coverage.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are being reminded of the central role the giant Wall Street markets play in global finance.It is a US holiday weekend, Memorial Day, and without those US markets operating, data releases and other market activity is very restrained.But in the US, Fed boss Powell delivered a graduation speech that contained a spirited defense of those who run public services and the core role they play in a crisis. He clearly showed there are no libertarians in a recession or threat of one. They all want "the government" to cover their backs.And the Trump Administration also shows the power of 'active' government policy setting. The using of tax policy to help your friends (and family) and punish your perceived enemies is on full display. And the use of tariffs to screw the scrum is a lever that also shows that clearly.From his bully-pulpit, Trump has delayed a punitive tariff threat on EU goods to July 9. It was enough to depress the USD on the capricious uncertainty and the EUR as hit a one-month high.We should note that American hot-rolled steel prices are now at US$900/tonne which is +29% higher than when Trumps tariff actions started to take shape at the start of 2025. These are policies that are embedding sharp producer price inflation there. And of course, they will rise from here, as tariff pressure builds on other efficient manufacturers outside the US.You can contrast that with Chinese steel prices. We don't have hot-rolled coil steel prices for China to hand, but we do have rebar steel prices there and they are now US$425/tonne, down from US$460/tonne at the start of 2025, so a -7.5% decrease. A crude matching of the US and China steel price shifts suggests the Chinese-sourced products have gained a +35% advantage in the period, largely offsetting the tariff actions. It is American consumers paying for all this infantile policy-making.Meanwhile, the world is getting on with business, but just with fewer data signals to start the week.In Canada, factory sales there were weakish in April, the weakest month of the year so far. Key to the fall were declining output in both their oil industry, and their car manufacturing.A recent review of the Canadian economy by the OECD suggests it will avoid recession, but that expansion will be hard to find in the present trade-war climate.Meanwhile, the province of Alberta is feeling very uneasy. There is a fringe movement there to cede from Canada and become a US state, built on the feeling that federal Canada doesn't appreciate the economic role they play in the Federation. But that overlooks the central role the US is playing in depressing the oil demand and prices they claim is 'theirs'. Joining the US would only accentuate the feelings of 'victimisation'.Across the Pacific, Singapore also released April factory production data and that rose faster from March, to be +5.9% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.51%, and unchanged from yesterday while the New York bond market was closed. The price of gold will start today at US$3,340/oz, and down -US$17 from yesterday.Oil prices are holding at just on US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just under US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is still at 60 USc, and up +10 bps at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at just on 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just under 67.9 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,020 and up +1.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we have ended a turbulent week where the USD fell, US Treasury benchmark rates rose, and equities retreated. Gold jumped.The turbulence will continue into this coming week with the US president lashing out because his signature tariff policies aren't producing the economic growth or reshoring he anticipated and other countries have worked out how to game him. His new lashes are at the EU, and Apple, for not reshoring. Neither seem in awe of his power any more.But first, the coming week will be dominated by Wednesday's ORC review where a -25 bps rate cut to 3.25% is widely anticipated. Earlier that day there will be a dairy Pulse auction too.In Australia, they will update their monthly consumer price indicator, also on Wednesday. Elsewhere, South Korea will be reviewing its monetary policy settings this week, and Japan will release important industrial production, retail sales, and consumer sentiment updates.In the US, after their long weekend, markets are bracing for another uncertain week, driven by those tariff threats from Trump targeting the European Union and Apple. Investors will also focus on commentary from Fed officials, as well as the FOMC meeting minutes. Key US economic indicators include personal income and spending, the PCE price indices, durable goods orders, trade balance, the second estimate of Q1 GDP growth, corporate profits, pending home sales among others.But first we should note in China, their central bank injected ¥500 bln (NZ$120 bln) of new liquidity into financial institutions through their one-year medium-term lending facility on Friday. But that was less than the ¥600 bln added in April.China's net foreign direct investment actually fell in April from March, a very unusual shift. The fall wasn't large at -US$4.8 bln for the month but a notable shift from the +US$7.2 bln rise in April 2024 which was considered unusually small. Go back to April 2023 and it was +US$14.1 bln and +US$15.4 bln the year before. In the past two years, the August levels have stalled (but not retreated) and this is the first we have ever seen where there was a net outflow of foreign investment from China in a month. And Nikkei is reporting that the protracted real estate woes are pushing down lending rates, and now 80% of Chinese banks have seen their interest margins fall below the industry threshold for profitability, raising concerns over the sector's stability. Fifty-four of 58 commercial banks listed in mainland China and Hong Kong posted reduced interest margins compared with the previous fiscal year, according to the analysis, which evaluated financial results announced for the year ended December 2024.Japanese inflation is holding high, and came in at 3.6% in April, the same as in March. But that was its lowest since December. Food prices rose the least in four months but were still up +6.5% from a year ago, down from the March +7.4%. This dip came after the government took steps to curb rice prices that have doubled over the past year. High rice prices have cost the government minister 'responsible' for that sector his job last week.In Singapore, April CPI inflation held art a very low 0.9%, but that belies the monthly fall of -0.3% from March. This is the second month in a row they have had month-on-month deflation. That is largely due to falling costs for clothing, household durables, and entertainment. Food price increases were modest.Taiwanese retail sales growth was weak again in April. It hasn't really recovered after the unexpectedly large drop in February, bumping along essentially at year-ago levels.But Taiwanese industrial production is on fire, rising another sharp +22% in April from the same month a year ago. That is the best growth rate on record for them, apart from the distorted pandemic recovery.Across the Pacific in the US, this is the long Memorial Day holiday weekend in the US, the start of their summer season which won't end until their Labor Day holiday on September 1. (Traditional investors "sold in May, and went away" because volumes lighten and become more volatile over this northern summer period.)This is also the start of the US summer 'driving season'. American petrol prices are currently averaging US$3.196/US gallon. That is NZ$1.41/L. (A year ago it was +10% higher, equivalent to NZ$1.566/L.)And it is the start of their barbeque season. But prices are likely to rise further from the already record high levels because the number of cattle on feedlots is down, and the amount of beef stored in freezers is lower too.But of course, business carries on. There was an unusually large rise in new home sales in the US in April, taking them up to an annualised rate of 743,000, a level they haven't seen since mid-2022. After a string of weak months (and downwardly revised earlier data) builders are now resorting to widespread incentives to move stock, and it seems to have worked in April. Housing starts remained weak, and new building consents are declining still.In Australia and on their eastern seaboard it has been very wet with widespread flooding. And that is having a substantial impact on rural output. In particular, milk volumes are falling and milk prices are rising fast.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.51%, and down -1 bp from this time Saturday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,357/oz, and down -US$5 from Saturday. But that makes it +US$170 higher than a week ago, a +5.5% jump.Oil prices are holding at just on US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just under US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is still at 59.9 USc, and unchanged from Saturday at this time. A week ago it was at 58.8 USc so an outsized +110 bps rise since then. Against the Aussie we are holding at just under 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 52.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just under 67.8 and unchanged but up +40 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,270 and down -2.5% from Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news risk premiums keep on rising.But first, the OECD is reporting that the global expansion is leaking away, and quite quickly now. Economic activity rose by just +0.1% in the first quarter of 2025, significantly down from an +0.5% rise in the previous quarter. The US and Japan were the main drags in their data. And they say this is a departure from the higher and relatively stable growth rates recorded in the OECD area over the past two years.US initial jobless claims eased lower marginally, all accounted for by seasonal factors. There are now 1.79 mln people on these benefits, +103,000 more than at the same time last year.Existing home sales in the US fell -0.5% in April 2025, to their lowest in seven months and notably below what was expected. High mortgage rates are getting the blame.The first of the US PMI survey is out for May, the S&P/Markit one, and that reported output growth improved in the month, but prices spiked higher from the tariff impacts. And this was true for both the factory category, and their services category. It is better than a decline but in a broader historical perspective this isn't very impressive.Supporting that was the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index which not only recorded a decline in April, but March was revised lower too.Meanwhile, the Kansas City Fed factory survey for May slipped more negative again, even if hopes for the future remain positive.We don't usually report results of the US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), but today's 10 year event reveals the rising risk premiums investors are demanding, even as background inflation rises. Today's event delivered a median yield of 2.14% plus inflation, compared to the prior equivalent event a month ago of 1.86% plus inflation. These premiums are on the move wider, and are likely to widen substantially if Trumps 2025 Budget gets through Congress.North of the border, and in a bit of a surprise, Canadian producer prices slipped in April to be just +2.0% higher than a year ago. It turns out that many components for Canadian factories are sourced from the US and the falling US dollar has made them cheaper. That is certainly true for energy products, but true for many other components as well. Cheaper input costs will help Canadian factories push back against the tariff taxes their US customers have to pay.In Japan, they booked record high machinery orders in March, up +8.4% from a year ago, and far above what was anticipated. The outlook for the next three months looks good too. But we should note these gains are built on fast-rising domestic orders. Export order contributions were weak.Meanwhile, the Japanese May PMIs both slipped lower to be essentially flat (a marginal contraction for factories, a marginal expansion for services).In China, and in a sign of how broken their real estate development sector has become, local authorities are using bond funds to buy back unused land from struggling developers as a way to stop them completely collapsing.Singapore reported its change in economic activity for March and that came in at +3.9%, lower than the 5.0% growth in the December quarter but better than the expected +3.6%. But officials there downgraded their full 2025 expectations saying they will be lucky to get +2.0% growth this full calendar year - for all the obvious reasons.The Indian PMI for May stayed little-changed with a robust expansion. But they too are now noting rising price pressures.The flash Australia PMIs for May report a growth stall, for both their factory sector and their services sector. That was because they had their slowest growth in new orders in 2025 so far.Global container freight rates stayed low last week, up +2% from the prior week to be -28% lower than year-ago levels. And bulk freight rates rose +5.0% from a week ago but remain in the general low range they have been since early April.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.55%, and down -5 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,294/oz, and down -US$18 from yesterday.Oil prices are -50 USc softer today at just under US$61/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just under US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59 USc, and down -½c from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 52.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just under 67.4 and down a net -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,542 and up +5.0% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the bond market is speaking, passing judgement on the Trump Budget - it doesn't like it.The benchmark US Treasury 10yr, 20yr and 30yr bond yields have all jumped +12 bps so far today. That means their holders are taking sharp capital losses as the price of 'safety', and new buyers want sharply higher risk premiums. These rates are closing in on pre-GFC levels now.After a couple of weeks of rises, US mortgage applications fell last week and that too was because of rising mortgage interest rates. Their benchmark 30 year rate is very much tied to the equivalent UST rates, so next week it is very likely mortgage interest rates will jump sharply too, with a consequential fall in new mortgage applications.And those rate rises are flowing through to the primary market as well. The overnight US Treasury 20 year bond auction was still well-supported but at a price, with the median yield jumping to 4.97%, up +22 bps from 4.75% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. It has been a long time since we have seen as sharp a price signal in the primary market.It is actually starker than that. At that prior event, the high bid was 4.81% and 6.5% of the auction was allocated at that level. At this latest auction, the high bid was 5.05% and 41% was allocated at that level.Stagflation, recession fears, and a clearly irresponsible Federal Budget proposal (just designed for one family's interest) is gnawing away at sentiment and now consumer demand. Overnight, current US crude oil stocks jumped on unexpectedly low demand. These inventories rose by +1.328 million barrels in the week that ended May 16, defying market expectations of a -1.85 million barrel decrease. That is a large, unexpected turn.It is too much for the equities market, which fell sharply on all this bond and demand news.In Canada, and in a surprise, new home prices fell, and rather sharply to be back to early 2024 levels. In fact the dip was the sharpest since the pandemic.Across the Pacific, Japan is facing bond stress as well. Yields on long-term Japanese sovereign bonds are soaring as demand for such debt falters, with many market experts saying the situation is unlikely to change anytime soon. Behind the shrinking demand are mounting investor worries over the health of Asia's No. 2 economy and fallout from US trade tariffs. Yields on 20-year JGBs rose yesterday (Wednesday) to 2.575%, their highest since 2000.Meanwhile, Taiwanese export orders surged almost +20% in April from a year ago to US$56.4 bln and easily exceeding market expectations of a +10% increase. This is their best month ever, outside the distorted period of the pandemic and its aftermath when volatility reigned.The Indonesian central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps cut to 5.50%, as expected and taking it back to a level first fit in December 2022. Even though inflation is rising there it is only at just under 2% and well within its target range.In Australia, the six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.2% in April from 0.5% in March, a stalling that wasn't expected.In a new update, the ABS said Aussie employers paid a record AU$104.8 bln in salaries and wages in March. Annual growth ranged from +3.7% in the mining industry to +11.9% in Electricity, gas, water and waste services. In dollar terms, the rises were greatest in the healthcare and social assistance services industry (+$1.1 billion or +7.8%), public administration and safety (+$0.6 billion or +8.1%), and construction ($0.6 billion or +7.1%).Join us for the Budget 2025 release after 2pm this afternoon. Although much has already been signaled, some will have been saved for the theatre on the annual budget release, and this is our opportunity to assess the overall health of the Crown accounts - and when we are next likely to return to surplus.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.60%, up a very sharp +12 bp from this time yesterday. Wall Street is sharply lower, with the S&P500 down -1.5% in Wednesday trade. The price of gold will start today at US$3,313/oz, and up +US$28 from yesterday. (Remember the record high is US$3520/oz set on April 22, 2025.)Oil prices are a tad softer today at just over US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is -50 USc lower at US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.5 USc, up another +30 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just over 67.6 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,238 and essentially unchanged from yesterday. At one point it briefly hit US$109,500, but fell back just as quickly. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news both superpowers are dicing with unsustainable budget deficits that are posed to explode. The Moody's downgrade was just a teaser. The bond market will make the real judgment.But first today, the overnight dairy auction brought the expected settling of prices, even though they remain high. They dipped overall by -0.85% on the low volumes offered but with the backdrop that the European season is currently at its peak. WMP and SMP both dipped minorly and as signaled in the derivatives market. The Cheese price sank -9.2% however but it had probably gotten excessively high in prior events, so an unsurprising correction. Chinese buying presence was a feature of this event.US retail salesrose +5.4% last week from the same week a year ago, but this is clouded by the unknown impact of their new tariff-taxes. It is their slowest rise since late March and the impact of the tariff taxes will be starting to show up now. So it could well be that retail sales volumes are starting to decline now as a consequence.On Wall Street, there is growing nervousness about how the Federal Government's budget is being planned. If it goes through as the Administration is proposing, the US deficit to balloon sharply. And the bond market will have something sharp to say about that.In Canada, their inflation rate fell to 1.7% in April, but there was a special on-off factor that helped it. It dropped from 2.3% in March not quite hitting the expected 1.6% May level. A large part was a drop in energy prices not only because the oil price is easing but they also removed the consumer carbon tax. Food prices prices were up +3.8% however, especially the cost of fresh food.China has cut its key lending rates to record lows at yesterday's May fixing. The one-year loan prime rate, the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was lowered by 10 basis points to 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, which is the basis for mortgage rates, was cut by the same margin to 3.5%. These changes were what markets were expecting and the first reductions since October. It is another in the string of monetary easing measures announced earlier this month.That official move was immediately followed by the four largest Chinese state-owned banks who cut deposit rates by between -5 bps and -25 bps. Those four core SOE banks are Bank of China, China Construction Bank, ICBC, (all of whom have New Zealand subsidiaries) and the Agricultural Bank of China. Other banks followed. Money is flowing out of savings accounts now, back to higher earning "wealth products', a move that in the past has been fraught with risk.The US isn't the only superpower flirting with deficit spending danger. China is too, as its fiscal stimulus pushed its four-month budget deficit to a record high of -¥2.65 tln in 2025 (-NZ$620 bln). And there is no public pushback on the wisdom of that.Malaysian exports took off in April with a strong +16.4% rise from the same month a year ago. If we look past the pandemic recovery growth, it was near their best export performance since 2018. But also came as imports surged +20% to a new all-time record high.In Europe, it might have been marginal but it is worth noting all the same - consumer sentiment got less bad in May. This seems to have broken the 2025 run of declines in these survey results, a decline that really started in late 2024.In Australia, they cut their cash rate target by -25 bps as expected to 3.85% which they say is still at a restrictive level, just less so. Inflation and trade uncertainties are still on their mind - and the risks to their continuing expansion were more so that markets were anticipating. Governor Bullock's press conference comments were more dovish than the rate change statement, and more dovish that many were expecting. The RBA also trimmed its growth forecasts. Markets now expect at least two more -25 bps rate cuts to come through in 2025. Yesterday's Bullock comments opens up the possibility of more.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.48%, up a mere +1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3285/oz, and up +US$58 from yesterday.Oil prices are a tad softer today at just over US$62/bbl in the US but the international Brent price is +50 USc firmer at US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.2 USc, up +30 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just over 67.5 and essentially unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,320 and up +0.9% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just under +/-1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.