American consumer confidence fades and retail sales growth cools

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news bond markets are ramping up their defensive posture, especially in the US, as American economic data fades further.

But first up today, there was a GlobalDairyTrade Pulse powder auction today and prices slipped again. They were down -1% from the prior full event a week ago for SMP and dived a rather sharp -4% for WMP. This will keep downward pressure on pay-out forecasts for the current season, especially the WMP result.

In the US, the ADP weekly employment report said a net -13,500 US jobs were lost last week, the largest weekly drop since ADP started releasing their weekly data. The pace of payroll shrinkage seems to be rising in the US.

American retail sales growth slowed to +4.3% in September from the + 5.0% rise in August. On a monthly basis, retail sales rose +0.2%, half the expected +0.4% increase and suggesting the weakness is concentrated recently. Observers will be watching the weak car sales component, especially.

Producer prices rose +2.7% in September from a year earlier, exactly as expected.

Pending home sales fell -0.4% in October from year-ago levels, the second consecutive monthly dip, and the eighth of 2025. However they did record a seasonal rise from September.

The latest factory survey from the Richmond Fed covering the mid-Atlantic states was quite negative.

And the Dallas Fed services survey was downbeat too, although the contraction there was at a slower pace than in October.

So it will be no surprise to learn that the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey was also quite negative, falling sharply and mirroring the similar University of Michigan survey. Perceptions of inflation rose, to 4.8%.

And traditional Thanksgiving travel plans are being scaled back. They were expecting a rise this year, but the economic situation and uncertainties about disruptions are seeing an unexpected rise in cancellations, so a decline is now anticipated.

Across the Pacific in South Korea, consumer sentiment is rising. Their central bank's survey revealed a Composite Consumer Sentiment Index at the highest reading since November 2017. Their renewed confidence follows a major trade agreement with the US and stronger-than-expected economic growth.

In Taiwan, retail sales rose +1.9% in October from the same month a year ago, a bounce-back from the -1.6% dip in September. Meanwhile their industrial production expanded sharply again, up another +14.5% on that same year-on-year basis, although the pace of expansion seems to be slowing a bit even if it is strong.

The UST 10yr yield is now under 4.00%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday to 3.99% as a defensive mood takes hold.

The price of gold will start today at US$4138/oz, and up +US$42 from yesterday.

American oil prices have fallen -US$1 from yesterday to be just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$62/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is holding at just under 56.1 USc, and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at just under 87 AUc. Against the euro we have dropped -20 bps to 48.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.8, and little-changed if soft.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,996 and down -0.3% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.

Today, the RBNZ will review the OCR and issue its final Monetary Policy Statement of the year. Join us from 2pm when we will start our full coverage.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.