Hidden Forces

"What the Bond Sell-off Means for Investors" features Andy Constan, a bond market expert, and Mike Green, an analyst. They analyze the recent turmoil in the bond market, discussing the rise in long-term government debt and its implications for the economy. Topics include the risk-reward for investors considering bonds in their portfolio and the challenges of forecasting economic activity, interest rates, and inflation. They also explore the impact of long-term interest rates on the housing market and the divergence between stock and bond returns.

Demetri Kofinas speaks with Henry Olsen, author of 'Working Class Republican,' discussing the rise of populism, political realignment, and disconnect between citizens and parties. They explore American electoral politics, including the potential scenarios for the 2024 elections and the importance of adapting to the new right.

Demetri Kofinas interviews Dylan Patel, a semiconductor and A.I. analyst, about the failure of U.S. semiconductor export controls on China. They discuss Huawei's Kirin 9000s chipset, China's progress in the chip industry, military and commercial implications, strengthening export controls, and rebuilding America's semiconductor industry.

Brad Setser, Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses the new geopolitics of global finance and China's economy. They explore economic policy transformations, China's high savings rate, German economy, dollar assets, and efforts to de-risk supply chains. Also, they delve into stimulating the semiconductor industry and China's dominance in electric vehicles.

Diana Choyleva, an expert in US-China relations, discusses Huawei's 5G phone, China's naval exercises, and the state of its economy. The podcast explores China's technological advancements, the US response, the CCP's strategy, and China's long-term perspective. It also highlights the need for internal reform in Western societies and China's desire to regain global dominance.

Alex Velez-Green, fmr. National Security Advisor to U.S. Senator Josh Hawley, discusses the risks faced by the US military in a conflict with China over Taiwan, including Chinese advancements, consequences of losing, and containing China. They also explore the state of America's defense industrial base and the need to invest in capabilities to deter China.

Demetri Kofinas interviews Michael Nicoletos, founder and CEO of DeFi Advisors, about his biography, Dollar Doomerism, the Euro, BRICS currency, interest rates, inflation, geopolitics, national security challenges in Europe, US preparations for a war over Taiwan, China's economy, and reasons for hope in the future.

Mauro Guillen, Professor of Multinational Management and Vice Dean of the Executive MBA Program at Wharton University, discusses his book 'The Perennials' about the Megatrends creating a 'Postgenerational Society.' We explore the demographic and technology-driven changes that are shaping this new workforce model and impacting society, including the need for flexibility in response to economic and technological changes, embracing continuous learning and career flexibility, challenging ageism, and recognizing the capabilities of older individuals in the workforce.

In Episode 323 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the former Chief Economist at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Director of the Center for Politics, Economics, and History at the University of Texas at Austin, Charles Calomiris about his recently published paper “Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements.” In the paper, Dr. Calomiris considers the possibility that the United States government will enact new and more onerous forms of financial repression, including commandeering the US banking system to fund unsustainably high debt and deficit payments that would otherwise lead to a sovereign debt crisis. In the first hour, Calomiris and Kofinas discuss the history of US bank policy and the unique characteristics of the American political economy that inform how the nation responds to political crises and the populist temptation to resolve them through the US banking system. The second hour is devoted to a discussion about when and how such measures will be taken to resolve an impending fiscal debt crisis that professor Calomiris believes is inevitable. They discuss what the signposts for such an impending crisis could be, the tradeoffs that an economy operating under the conditions of fiscal dominance would have to make, how such a period of fiscal dominance could end (i.e., either through a prolonged period of double-digit inflation or a full-blown debt crisis), and what role fintech, crypto, and other forms of decentralized finance will play in such an economy given the government’s need to fund itself without losing complete control over inflation. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 08/09/2023

In Episode 322 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with someone he has gotten to know mainly by following his anonymous account on Twitter where he goes by the name Shrubbery Capital or Le Shrub, for short. Le Shrub consistently provides some of the most entertaining and clever market commentary you will find anywhere and Demetri could not resist the opportunity to have him on the podcast, especially given the fact that this conversation was conducted in person. The two spend most of the first hour discussing Le Shrub’s background, his investment philosophy, and his process for coming up with new trade ideas, as well as his experience shorting the housing market in 2008 as part of a famous team known for doing “The Big Short.” What he learned from that experience and how it applies to today’s markets is also part of that conversation. The rest of the episode including the second hour is a deep dive into many of the topics that are top of mind right now for investors and policymakers alike. Demetri and his guest discuss the divergence between bonds and equities, the bull and bear cases for commodities, the fate of emerging markets, the bull and bear cases for different European economies, China, gold, the US Dollar, and of course, no conversation is complete today without a discussion about the investment implications of A.I., and yes, Aliens. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today’s episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/27/2023