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Hidden Forces
What’s Driving the Fall in Oil Prices? | Rory Johnston
Dec 18, 2023
Oil analyst and researcher Rory Johnston discusses the fall in oil prices, investor positioning, US oil production growth, recent M&A activity, OPEC production cuts, geopolitical risk in Guyana and the Strait of Hormuz, and more.
58:41
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Quick takeaways
- Speculation and speculative positions have influenced the rise and fall of oil prices, amplifying market movements.
- Despite strong global demand and OPEC production cuts, the growth in US oil production has offset the impact on oil prices.
Deep dives
Speculation and Market Deterioration
Speculation played a role in the rise and fall of oil prices. While the market has deteriorated, the extent of the fall is overstated, and factors like speculative positions influenced the pricing. The market saw an overextension in speculative positions in late September, leading to a surge in prices. However, speculators have since reduced their positions, causing prices to drop. The overall price reduction is around $10, not the full $20. Speculative trading can amplify and accelerate market movements.
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