The Naked Pravda

Медуза / Meduza
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Oct 19, 2024 • 29min

North Korea's role in the Ukraine War

In the past few days, both the Zelensky administration in Kyiv and South Korea’s national spy agency have said that they believe North Korea has decided to send more than ten thousand troops to support Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. On October 18, following an emergency security meeting called by South Korea’s president, the country’s National Intelligence Service released an assessment claiming that the North is sending four brigades of 12,000 soldiers, including special forces, to Ukraine, which would be an unprecedented move, if true. Diplomats in Russia and North Korea say these reports are false. Meanwhile, American officials have warned repeatedly of the growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, saying that Washington has observed signs of increased material support to Moscow, including both artillery shells and missiles, such as KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles that have been recovered from wreckage in Ukraine. According to British journalists, North Korea supplies Russia with about half of the approximately three million artillery shells that Russian forces use annually in the war against Ukraine. However, Western officials have expressed skepticism about the claims that North Korea is sending large numbers of soldiers, apart from smaller groups of engineers and observers. For example, just the other day, NATO’s general secretary spoke at a press conference right alongside Zelensky and directly contradicted him, saying there is no evidence that North Korean soldiers are involved in the fight. For a crash course in Russian-North Korean relations and a hard look at recent claims from the Ukrainian and South Korean governments of thousands of North Korean soldiers flooding the battlefield in Ukraine, The Naked Pravda welcomed Dr. Fyodor Tertitskiy, a lecturer at Korea University and a leading researcher on North Korean politics. Timestamps for this episode: (3:15) The historical context of North Korea’s military strategy(5:41) South Korean diplomacy(7:45) Potential military aid and consequences(9:38) North Korean diplomatic tactics(12:06) China’s role in the Russian-North Korean alliance(14:46) Russia’s weapon purchases from North Korea(19:12) The historical context of Soviet/Russian-North Korean relations(25:04) Symbolic gestures for Vladimir PutinКак поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно
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Oct 5, 2024 • 28min

Breaking down Russia's 2025 war budget

The Russian government’s new draft budget for 2025 through 2027 was introduced to the State Duma this week in its first reading. The state’s proposed spending exceeds earlier predictions, with 41.5 trillion rubles (more than $435 billion) allocated for next year alone — and that may not be the final amount. A record share of the budget is classified as “secret” or “top secret” — nearly a third of all proposed expenditures.  To discuss the draft budget, focusing on allocations to the military, The Naked Pravda welcomed back Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, a former columnist for the business newspaper Vedomosti, and a former senior advisor at Russia’s Central Bank. Timestamps for this episode: (2:26) Breaking down Russia’s next round of federal spending on the military and national security(4:08) Economic implications and rising taxes(7:18) Russia’s National Wealth Fund and budget deficit(10:14) Patriotism and public-sector funding(11:54) Domestic (in)security(15:12) Lobbying and budget allocations(21:45) Western Sanctions and Russia’s economic resilienceКак поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно
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Sep 29, 2024 • 26min

The North Caucasian clan warfare behind a deadly dispute at Wildberries, ‘Russia’s Amazon’

Wildberries founder and CEO Tatyana Kim (who recently restored her maiden name) has been having a hell of a time shaking loose her husband, Vladislav Bakalchuk, but their very public divorce is just the tip of the iceberg in what’s become a battle between some of the most powerful political groups in Russia’s North Caucasus. On September 18: Vladislav Bakalchuk tried to storm the company’s office in the Romanov Dvor business center — just a few hundred yards from the Kremlin itself. Bakalchuk has very publicly opposed the Wildberries-RussGroup merger and recently met with Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov to plead his case, winning the dictator’s support. At the Moscow office, Bakalchuk’s entourage had two former senior executives, but — more importantly — he was accompanied by former and current Chechen police officers and National Guardsmen, as well as trained martial artists from Chechnya, including former world and European taekwondo champion Umar Chichaev. According to Novaya Gazeta Europe, Chichaev fired his service weapon, though his status in the National Guard is a bit fuzzy. On the other side of the conflict, defending the Wildberries office was another team of police and police-adjacent men with ties to Ingushetia. According to the newspaper Novaya Gazeta, Wildberries had recently hired a private security company with ties to Ingush State Duma deputy Bekkhan Barakhoev, who, until three years ago, worked as a vice president of a subsidiary of Russ Outdoor — the smaller company now merging with Wildberries. The most important shadow figure at Russ Outdoor, meanwhile, is Suleiman Kerimov, a billionaire senator from Dagestan. The office shootout left two Ingush men dead and more than two dozen suspects in police custody, though Vladislav Bakalchuk miraculously escaped charges as a mere witness. He claims he merely showed up for a planned business meeting, but Tatyana Kim calls the incident a failed attempt at a hostile takeover. To learn more about this story and its broader political context, The Naked Pravda spoke to Ilya Shumanov, the general director of Transparency International-Russia in exile. Timestamps for this episode: (3:08) The power struggle between Kim and Bakalchuk(4:55) Suleiman Kerimov: Dagestan’s “shadow governor”(7:20) The Wildberries-RussGroup merger and its implications(9:47) Clan battles and regional tensions(21:44) The future of corporate raiding in RussiaКак поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно
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Sep 18, 2024 • 45min

America's expanding crackdown on RT and Moscow's covert influence operations

Last month, the FBI raided the homes of Scott Ritter, a former United Nations weapons inspector and critic of American foreign policy, and Dimitri Simes, a former think tank executive and an adviser to Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. In late August, The New York Times reported that these searches were part of the U.S. Justice Department’s “broad criminal investigation into Americans who have worked with Russia’s state television networks.” In the past two weeks, U.S. officials have taken numerous measures against Russia Today and its affiliates and accelerated police actions against Russia-based individuals and entities accused of covert influence operations, including money laundering, sanctions violations, and unregistered foreign agent work. For example, the Justice Department announced the seizure of 32 Internet domains used in Russian government-directed foreign malign influence campaigns (colloquially referred to as “Doppelganger”), alleging that Russian companies used online domains to impersonate legitimate news entities and unique media brands to spread Russian government propaganda covertly, violating U.S. laws against money laundering and trademarks.  That same day, the Justice Department indicted two Russia-based employees of RT for conspiring to commit money laundering and conspiring to violate the Foreign Agents Registration Act in a $10-million scheme to fund and direct a Tennessee-based company to publish and disseminate information “with hidden Russian-government messaging.” A day later, officials charged Dmitri Simes and his wife with participating in a plot to violate U.S. sanctions and launder money obtained from Russian state television. About a week later, the U.S. State Department issued a special “alert to the world,” declaring that new information obtained over the past year reveals that Russia Today has “moved beyond being simply a media outlet” and has become “an entity with cyber capabilities” that’s “also engaged in information operations, covert influence, and military procurement.” Washington claims that the Russian government embedded within RT in Spring 2023 an entity “with cyber operational capabilities and ties to Russian intelligence.” Based on these allegations, Meta — the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp — soon announced that it had banned Russia Today and its affiliates from all its platforms.  A day before that big announcement from the State Department, a jury in Tampa, Florida, convicted four American citizens of conspiracy to act as agents of the Russian government. Case evidence first reported by RFE/RL shows that the activists on trial secretly coordinated their activities and received funding from “Anti-Globalization Movement” head Alexander Ionov, who acted on orders from Russia’s Federal Security Service. To discuss this recent explosion of American police and diplomatic activity targeting RT and Russian covert influence operations in the U.S., The Naked Pravda spoke to RFE/RL journalist Mike Eckel, who coauthored the September 6 report on how Ionov and his FSB handlers “chatted and plotted to sow discord in the United States.” Timestamps for this episode: (5:54) The U.S. government’s coordinated campaign against Russian covert influence operations(7:18) Legal strategies when prosecuting Moscow’s malign activities(8:37) Alexander Ionov and the FSB(15:11) American activists and Russian covert operations(18:52) “Foreign agency” in the U.S. vs. in Russia(32:12) Dmitri Simes and Channel One(36:18) Scott Ritter and Russia TodayКак поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно
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Sep 13, 2024 • 23min

Iranian ballistic missiles have entered the Ukraine War chat

The Pentagon says it’s confirmed that Iran has given “a number of close-range ballistic missiles to Russia.” While Washington isn’t sure exactly how many rockets are being handed over to Moscow, the U.S. Defense Department assesses that Russia could begin putting them to use within a few weeks, “leading to the deaths of even more Ukrainian civilians.” “One has to assume that if Iran is providing Russia with these types of missiles, that it’s very likely it would not be a one-time good deal, that this would be a source of capability that Russia would seek to tap in the future,” Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Major General Pat Ryder told reporters on September 10. That same day, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in London that the new supply of Iranian missiles will allow Russia to use more of its own longer-range ballistic missiles for targets that are farther from the frontline. To find out where the Russian-Iranian partnership is headed and what, if anything, changes in the Ukraine War with Tehran sending ballistic missiles to Moscow, The Naked Pravda spoke to Dr. Nicole Grajewski, a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an associate researcher with the Belfer Center’s Project on Managing the Atom at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Dr. Grajewski also has a forthcoming book, titled Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine. Timestamps for this episode: (1:54) Technical details about these ballistic missiles(5:05) The role of sanctions and the Iran nuclear deal(8:51) Iranian drones and ballistic missiles in Ukraine(10:16) Russian-Iranian military cooperation(16:07) Factional politics in Iran and RussiaКак поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно
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Aug 24, 2024 • 35min

The science of Russian Internet censorship and surveillance

Explore the tightening grip of internet censorship in Russia as the authorities throttle platforms like YouTube and Telegram. Discover the hidden tech behind Deep Packet Inspection and its effects on online access. Learn about SORM, the FSB’s surveillance system, and the implications of data leaks. Unpack the struggles of VPNs in bypassing restrictions and how Google’s global cache enhances service efficiency. Dive into the dangerous intersection of digital rights and state control in a country where online privacy is under constant threat.
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Aug 17, 2024 • 37min

Russian conscripts and Ukraine's Kursk offensive

Ukrainian forces have dramatically advanced into Russia's Kursk region, forcing evacuations and raising tensions. Meanwhile, the Kremlin grapples with the controversial use of conscript soldiers unprepared for the front lines. Experts discuss the shifting military dynamics and historical parallels, revealing difficulties in troop accountability and organizational structure. Additionally, the struggle of families of soldiers highlights the challenges of military conscription, amidst a backdrop of state repression and the growing need for independent journalism.
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Jun 15, 2024 • 40min

The long-term economic effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the West has imposed over 16,000 sanctions on Russia, intending to cripple the economy driving the Kremlin’s war machine. But the much-anticipated collapse of Russia’s economy never came to pass. In fact, Russia’s wartime economy has proven to be surprisingly resilient, with the IMF estimating that Russia’s GDP grew by 3.5% in 2023 and will continue to grow by 3.2% in 2024. The Kremlin has managed to keep Russia’s economy afloat, in large part, by increased military spending and forging new partnerships with countries like China and India who don’t mind flying in the face of Western sanctions. And although the Kremlin touts all of this as evidence that the West and its sanctions have failed in their endeavors to defeat Russia, a closer look under the hood reveals a more desperate disposition. A recent Financial Times article paints a more bleak picture of Russia’s relative power in the world's geopolitical hierarchy and the economic consequences it brings. Financial Times’ Russia correspondent, Anastasiia Stognei, joined The Naked Pravda to reconcile these two vastly different images being painted of Russia’s economy and to discuss the potential long-term consequences of the war in Russia. Timestamps for this episode: (3:17) Sanctions and the Russian economy(6:22) Russia’s wartime economic strategies(15:23) Long-term effects on Russian society(24:55) Future trade relations and economic outlookКак поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно
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Jun 8, 2024 • 31min

How can Ukraine hold the line against Russia?

It’s a tense moment for Ukraine. The optimism that followed Ukraine’s early successes on the battlefield in 2022 started to fade last summer as its counteroffensive failed to achieve a breakthrough. By late 2023, Ukraine’s then-commander-in-chief said the war had reached a “stalemate” — and by the start of the spring, things were looking even worse, with high-ranking Ukrainian officers warning a collapse of the front lines could be imminent without more weapons from Washington. In mid-April, U.S. lawmakers finally passed a $60-billion aid package, buying Ukraine some time and some hope. But Ukraine’s defense still faces major headwinds, and Russian forces have continued gradually advancing along various sections of the front line in recent weeks. Amid this enormous uncertainty, a new report from the International Crisis Group titled “Ukraine: How to Hold the Line” aims to distill the lessons of the past year for Ukraine and its backers. According to Simon Schlegel, the group’s senior Ukraine analyst, if Ukraine and its partners take these lessons into account, Russia’s aggression is “likely to fail” — but applying them will be anything but easy. Schlegel joined The Naked Pravda to discuss Crisis Group’s recommendations for Kyiv and its supporters and the stakes for the wider region if Ukraine fails to hold the line against Russia. Timestamps for this episode: (1:33) Stakes for Ukraine and Europe(6:41) Western military aid: Incrementalism and its impact(9:47) European allies: Preparedness and challenges(12:25) Advanced weapons systems: Training and deployment issues(16:59) Planning for contingencies: Ukraine’s efforts and limitations(20:34) Negotiation prospects(24:54) Putin’s mixed signals: Peace talks and nuclear threatsКак поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно
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May 31, 2024 • 46min

Kazakhstan's landmark murder trial

A landmark murder trial in Kazakhstan has captivated the nation, shedding light on domestic violence. The role of social media, impact of 'Saltanat's law', and broader issues of abuse are discussed. Activists share personal stories and call for systemic changes to combat violence against women.

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