Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an excellent report from Semi Analysis, and the state of the U.S. export controls on semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. Topics include: New reports of TSMC sales to Huawei-linked firms, the Commerce Department's oversight of chip controls, the various loopholes being routinely exploited by SMIC, Huawei and related entities, and enforcement questions for future administrations. From there: The NPC Standing Committee meeting is set for next week, the latest reports on what might be announced, and questions concerning the timing of the meeting, which will coincide with the US election. At the end: The PRC's crackdown on the private tutoring industry might be lifting, and reports that Chinese hackers targeted data from both Presidential campaigns. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Xi schools cadres; More stimulus talk; EU tariffs on PRC EVs go into effect; TSMC cuts of two customers over Huawei concerns — Sinocism NPCSC meeting; Politburo meeting on discipline; Politburo studies "building strong cultural nation; Huawei sanctions evasion; Pro-natal measures; Phone hacking — Sinocism Fab Whack-A-Mole: Chinese Companies are Evading U.S. Sanctions — SemiAnalysis TSMC suspended shipments to China firm after chip found on Huawei processor, sources say — Reuters TSMC cuts off at least two chip clients over potential Huawei links — Nikkei TSMC Chips Ended Up in Devices Made by China’s Huawei Despite U.S. Controls — New York Times Exclusive: China considers over $1.4 trillion in extra debt over next few years — Reuters China's private tutoring firms emerge from the shadows after crackdown — Reuters Chinese Hackers Are Said to Have Targeted Phones Used by Trump and Vance — New York Times

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping's visit to the16th BRICS Summit and Russia's rumored effort to build a platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions. From there: The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline that may or may not materialize, waiting for news on the next meeting of the NPC standing committee, and one theory on how the US election could impact the timing of the next fiscal announcement. Then: Xi's visit to a PLA Rocket Force brigade in Anhui, the rhetoric Xi uses surrounding the PLA and its readiness, and thoughts on the continued buildout of the PRC nuclear arsenal. At the end: A note on Taiwan's energy security, clarity on the names of the National Zoo’s new pandas, and a flurry of reports and questions surrounding Huawei, TSMC and the Commerce Department's oversight of export controls on chipmaking equipment. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Xi meets Putin; No announcement of NPC SC meeting; Rui Chenggang; Huawei and TSMC; Huawei's updated OS; VW exec deported — Sinocism Xi in Anhui, inspects nuclear missile brigade; Q3 GDP and rate cuts; BRICS; Export controls — Sinocism Xi Jinping to Attend the 16th BRICS Summit in Russia — MoFA At BRICS summit, Russia to push to end dollar dominance — Reuters Plan D — Doomberg China Moves to Support Markets After Data Showing Economy Slowed — Bloomberg Covering China’s National People’s Congress and its Standing Committee — NPC Observer Xi calls on Anhui to write its own chapter of Chinese modernization — Xinhua Adapting US strategy to account for China’s transformation into a peer nuclear power — The Atlantic Council Huawei Technologies’ Latest AI Chips Were Produced by TSMC — Bloomberg TSMC says it alerted US to potential violation of China AI chip controls — Financial Times U.S. Probes TSMC’s Dealings With Huawei — The Information Secretive Chip Startup May Help Huawei Circumvent US Sanctions — Bloomberg (2022) D.C.’s new pandas are named what, now? — Washington Post TSMC Cuts Off Client After Discovering Chips Diverted to Huawei — Bloomberg

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the PRC has sent two pandas to the National Zoo in Washington D.C., as Qing Bao, a 3-year-old year-old female, and Bao Li, a 3-year-old male, begin a 30-day quarantine in the Panda House. Then: Takeaways from Monday's Operation Joint Sword 2024B around Taiwan, including the strategic value of these military exercises for the PRC, and the implications of normalizing this pattern of behavior. From there: Parsing the "stimulus" news over the last several days, including the strain on local governments, why reports suggest that Xi and the central government are taking action to help them, and heightened scrutiny on overseas investments. At the end: Following up on Bill's conversation about the 2024 US Election, a Financial Times report on PRC educators ordered to surrender their passport, and an emailer provides a look at the new quality productive forces in dentistry. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Guessing about new bond issuance; Panda stimulus for US-China relations; Space plans; Tax collectors — Sinocism More special bonds for fiscal stimulus?; Stock market surge; Water-filled submarine; MSS mad at New Zealand; Raising money by detaining private entrepreneurs — Sinocism Giant pandas have returned to D.C. Meet Bao Li and Qing Bao. — Washington Post China Counts Wild Pandas. Nobody Believes Its Tally — New York Times The Panda Factories — New York Times PRC Military Drills Near Taiwan — US Department of State China ends war games around Taiwan, but leaves door open to more — Reuters China throwing a ‘temper tantrum’ with Taiwan drills, key Democrat says — Semafor (May 2024) China flags more fiscal stimulus for economy, leaves out key details on size — Reuters Exclusive: China May Add 6 Trillion Yuan in Treasury Bonds to Buttress Economy — Caixin Chinese Banks Set to Cut Deposit Rates as Soon as This Week — Bloomberg Behind Xi Jinping’s Pivot on Broad China Stimulus — Wall Street Journal China’s real intent behind its stimulus inflection — Financial Times Wealth China Moves to Tax the Ultra-Rich for Overseas Investment Gains — Bloomberg Substack Election Dialogues: China and the US election — Sinocism China tells schoolteachers to hand in their passports — Financial Times

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the market's reactions to the NDRC press briefing on Tuesday, as Hong Kong saw all of last week's gains erased, while the PRC markets continued to see gains. Topics include: Misplaced expectations on the NDRC press conference, a National People's Congress meeting later in October that may articulate more concrete measures, and more thoughts on the continued volatility in the market themselves as well as commentary around the world. From there: An emailer has a question about a potential ByteDance IPO, a note on the broader concerns that persist in the PRC, and the EU passes tariffs on PRC EVs. At the end: A note on Taiwan National Day and the potential for an Operation Joint Sword 2024B, and a listener notes that Xi Jinping is leaving China far less frequently than he once did. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Stock market volatility; Premier Li meetings on the economy; PRC goes after EU brandy; Wu Bangguo; Wang-Raimondo call; MSS on the "China Initiative" — Sinocism Stock market expectations; EU EV tariffs; Taiwan; Pakistan terror attack; Vietnam fishing boat attack — Sinocism China Markets Warn Xi That More Stimulus Is Needed to Fuel Rally — Bloomberg China targets brandy in EU trade tit-for-tat after EV tariff move — Reuters EU votes for tariffs on Chinese-made EVs in blockbuster trade row — SCMP ‘A very serious situation’: Volkswagen could close plants in Germany for the first time in history — CNN Communist China not the motherland, says Taiwan’s president, because our republic is older — The Guardian US concerned about Taiwan candidate — Financial Times (2011) China is using an “anaconda strategy” to squeeze Taiwan — The Economist

The podcast dives into the revived 'animal spirits' driving China's stock market surge, marking its biggest rally since 2008. A recent Politburo meeting hints at the government's commitment to economic stimulation. They explore challenges in the real estate sector, such as oversupply and declining consumer confidence. Diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and China are highlighted following a meeting between officials. The sinking of a nuclear submarine raises concerns about military capabilities, while uncertainties loom over Xi Jinping's potential succession.

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a raft of measures announced this week to stimulate the economy. Topics include: A pop to the stock market just in time for the PRC's 75th anniversary, stimulating mergers and acquisitions, whether this week's measures indicate more relief in the months to come, and more. Then: The disappearance of prominent economist Zhu Hengpeng, and a reminder of structural problems under Xi that have continued to intensify, regardless of monetary policy. At the end: The Ministry of Commerce announces that the owner of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger is under investigation, the US Commerce Department moves forward with a proposed rule that would effectively ban Chinese vehicles from the US, and a Substack post offers a taxonomy of Democrat China policies and questions about who might set the agenda for a Kamala Harris administration. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Addressing employment concerns; Stimulus!?; Connected vehicles and EU EV tariffs; CASS purge; Xinjiang cotton; ICBM test — Sinocism September Politburo Meeting to Analyze and Study Current Economic Situation and Economic Work; Investors Pumped — Sinocism China's central bank unveils most aggressive stimulus since pandemic — Reuters Five Key Takeaways as China Unveils Stimulus to Boost Economy — Bloomberg Xi’s Economic Adrenaline Shot Is Only Buying China a Little Time — Bloomberg Top Economist in China Vanishes After Private WeChat Comments — Wall Street Journal Beijing Threatens to Block Calvin Klein Owner’s Access to China — Wall Street Journal US proposes banning Chinese software and components in vehicles — Financial Times Relitigating China Policy — Matt Turpin Washington’s Playbook for China Must Change — Foreign Policy The Case Against the China Consensus — Foreign Affairs

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin by wishing a happy Mid-Autumn Festival to all. Then: The PRC government implements the Decision on Gradually Raising the Statutory Retirement Ages. Why was this necessary, why were the changes made now, and what might this signal about the rest of goals and reforms announced at the Third Plenum? From there: The PRC blockade at Xianbin Jiao/Sabina Shoal appears to have succeeded as the Philippines returns the BRP Theresa Magbanua to port, and questions persist as to when, and how, the US might deter PRC tactics in the South China Sea. At the end: The latest lobbying effort surrounding updated export controls, Japan's negotiations with the US over export controls, the Biden administration takes on the de minimis loophole, and TikTok’s trial begins in DC. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Economic data; Retirement ages; A win for the PRC at Xianbin Jiao/Sabina Shoal?; US pastor released; US chip export controls — Sinocism Overcapacity; National security; Japan and chip controls; Moutai; Big food concept — Sinocism China Raises Retirement Age for the First Time Since the 1950s — New York Times Commentary & Translation: China’s Plan to Raise Statutory Retirement Ages — NPC Observer China’s working age population is shrinking — CNBC U.S. 'ready' to assist Philippines with South China Sea resupplies — Nikkei Video by Joseph Morong — X: @Joseph_Morong Philippines Withdraws Ship From South China Sea Flashpoint — Bloomberg Philippines Vows to Return to Disputed Shoal After Ship Pullout — Bloomberg US strategists face dilemma over Beijing claim in South China Sea — Financial Times (2014) China rams Philippine ship while 60 Minutes on board; South China Sea tensions could draw U.S. in — 60 Minutes Thread from the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party — X: @committeeonccp US and Japan near deal to curb chip technology exports to China — Financial Times Analysis: China moves to play 'Okinawa card' over Japan's Taiwan stance — Nikkei FACT SHEET: Biden-⁠Harris Administration Announces New Actions to Protect American Consumers, Workers, and Businesses by Cracking Down on De Minimis Shipments with Unsafe, Unfairly Traded Products — The White House Court Appears Skeptical of TikTok’s Challenge to U.S. Ban — Wall Street Journal How a Tariff Rule Aimed at China Could Affect U.S. Ad Spending — Wall Street Journal

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to last week's arrest of Linda Sun, a former deputy chief of staff to governor Kathy Hochul. Topics include: The allegations contained in the Department of Justice indictment of Sun and her husband, the PRC efforts to influence local government officials around the world, the status of New York Consul General Huang Ping, and a report on the suppression of dissidents during Xi's APEC visit in November. From there: Updates on the overcapacity concerns around the world, a Bloomberg story on a $6.5 trillion stock rout, and reactions to a thoughtful Substack post on deleveraging efforts and deflation concerns in the midst of recent turmoil. At the end: An update on Qin Gang that may or may not resolve lingering questions, and a new rock bottom for the PRC men's soccer team. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Xi at Education conference; US accuses PRC of more help for Russia's "war machine"; Deflation; Raising retirement age — Sinocism Qin Gang's new job?; US business advisory for Hong Kong; Yi Gang on deflation; Xi on education — Sinocism The Secrets of an Unassuming N.Y. Official Accused of Working for China — New York Times A top Chinese official in NY is on the outs over the Linda Sun case. Or is he? — Gothamist Linda Sun Indictment — United States District Court Find the Cost of Interference — China Articles Key takeaways from AP’s report on China’s influence in Utah — AP How China extended its repression into an American city — Washington Post Why China Is Starting a New Trade War — Wall Street Journal There’s a China-Shaped Hole in the Global Economy — Wall Street Journal China trade war ‘maybe unavoidable’, EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell warns — SCMP The Downdraft — A Letter from Paul China’s $6.5 Trillion Stock Rout Worsens Economic Peril for Xi — Bloomberg China’s Deflationary Spiral Is Now Entering Dangerous New Stage — Bloomberg The real problem with China’s economy — The Economist China Should Fight Deflationary Pressure Now, Ex-PBOC Chief Says — Bloomberg Chinese Localities Adopt ‘Sell Everything to Save the Day’ Policy to Ease Debt — Caixin China’s ‘disappeared’ foreign minister demoted to low-level publishing job, say former U.S. officials — Washington Post What China’s Property Gloom and Soccer Fiasco Have in Common — Wall Street Journal China Football Association bans 43 after corruption probe — ESPN

Bill Bishop, the author of Sinocism, hosts Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, and Wang Yi, the Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission. They dive into the essential dialogues between U.S. and Chinese leaders, shedding light on the impacts of recent meetings amidst escalating South China Sea tensions. The discussion also covers geopolitical ramifications of semiconductor controls and China's threats to Japan. Wrapping up, they explore the explosive success of the video game 'Black Myth: Wukong' and its cultural significance.

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill return from the Beidaihe break with an update on a raft of Xi rumors and a programming note. Then: Back to the South China Sea, where good news at Second Thomas Shoal has quickly been overshadowed by an aerial incident at Scarborough Shoal and Monday's collision between PRC coast guard vessels and the Philippine coast guard. From there: A Foreign Affairs article outlining Beijing's perspective on the 2024 Presidential election in the US, three categories of American China strategists, and questions about Kamala Harris' approach to China. At the end: The scrutiny surrounding Tim Walz and his history of engagement with China, reports of a proposed rule on Chinese connected vehicle software, and a LiDAR company is removed from the Pentagon's blacklist. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Xi meets Olympics team; Fiji PM and IPU delegation; PRC-Philippines tensions; US reacts to PRC’s evolving nuclear strategy; Real estate price cuts — Sinocism Xi meets Vietnam General Secretary; Premier Li chairs State Council plenary and executive meetings; PRC-Philippines boat collisions — Sinocism Philippines Fortifies South China Sea Outpost For a Decade — Bloomberg Collisions Tear Holes in U.S. Ally’s Ships as Tensions Flare in South China Sea — Wall Street Journal Does China Prefer Harris or Trump? — Foreign Affairs Manila's provocations in South China Sea doomed to fail — China Military Online The Case for a Clean Energy Marshall Plan — Foreign Affairs How to talk China in 2024 — Breaking Beijing Tim Walz, Harris’s VP pick, has a long history with China — Washington Post Tim Walz’s long history with China shaped by horrors of Tiananmen — Financial Times China is not an enemy — Washington Post US expected to propose barring Chinese software in autonomous vehicles — Reuters China’s Hesai to be removed from US defence department blacklist — Financial Times The right’s serious minds have a Tim-Walz-Chinese-sleeper-agent theory — Washington Post