Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Tensions between China and the EU rise as Wang Yi discusses Ukraine, urging a mindset shift rather than trade adjustments. Domestic economic challenges loom with overcapacity and fierce competition affecting consumption. Speculation circulates around Xi Jinping’s leadership and health, raising questions about his political future. Amidst this, the unique dynamics of TikTok's U.S. strategy and recent developments in Chinese basketball provide an entertaining backdrop to serious discussions.

The discussion begins by examining China's cautious stance on the recent attacks in Iran and concerns over regional stability. President Lai's speeches on Taiwan provoke a stern response from the PRC, hinting at a tumultuous summer ahead. The faltering London agreement between the U.S. and China is scrutinized as tensions rise. Meanwhile, EU leaders are taking a hard line, especially with the upcoming summit looming. The segment wraps up by highlighting ongoing legislative issues surrounding TikTok and a revived focus on PRC controversies.

Dive into the turbulent waters of US-China trade relations as negotiations unfold, revealing rare earth leverage and pressures on both sides. Explore China's delicate stance on the Israel-Iran conflict, and how its internal strategies are influenced by these global tensions. Plus, uncover the struggles facing China's auto industry amidst political maneuvers and rumors. Get ready for a whirlwind of geopolitical insights and economic strategies in a rapidly changing landscape.

Tensions between the U.S. and China are on the table as both nations seek to de-escalate following recent meetings. The discussions reveal the U.S.'s concerns regarding China’s rare earth leverage and potential easing of tech export controls. A surprising connection emerges with espionage fears tied to a Chinese embassy in the UK. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping's efforts to curb party excesses make headlines, and a notable visit by Victor Wembanyama to a Shaolin Monastery adds an unexpected twist to the conversation.

Tensions rise as the U.S. grapples with China's rare earth export restrictions and the implications for global industries. The discussion delves into America's reliance on these critical minerals, highlighting urgent calls for alternative sources. A focus on chip controls reveals the challenges in securing semiconductor supply chains, all while U.S.-China negotiations hang in the balance. Additionally, price wars in the electric vehicle sector signal deeper automotive industry issues, with major implications for market dynamics.

The discussion kicks off with the ambitious Made in China 2025 strategy and its implications for the future. Electric vehicle competition heats up, hinting at a fierce market battle ahead. The EU's plans to collaborate with the US on China policies are unveiled, revealing the challenges of forming a unified front. Meanwhile, espionage warnings from the MSS and hacking accusations against Czechia add tension. The dynamics of factional politics within the Chinese Communist Party also come into focus, hinting at possible rivalries and challenges faced by Xi Jinping.

The discussion highlights the U.S. export controls on AI chips, particularly affecting Huawei's Ascend chips. Tensions rise as policymakers debate the Geneva Consensus on chip regulation. There's also a focus on U.S.-China dynamics, with plans for collaboration in AI investments with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Voices in China advocate for technological self-reliance, while rogue devices in solar inverters stir controversy. The overall narrative explores the strategic challenges and responses shaping the future of tech diplomacy.

A surprising 90-day tariff reduction between the U.S. and China is making waves in trade discussions. The new dialogue mechanism aims to tackle critical economic issues and foster communication. Insights reveal the perceived advantages for China amid this pause. The complexities of trade tensions are unpacked, highlighting historical contexts and strategic considerations. Key players' roles in upcoming negotiations are also examined, alongside the overarching implications for global markets.

US and China engage in trade talks in Switzerland, with experts urging caution on expectations. Concerns rise over the opacity of Chinese economic data, highlighting the challenges posed by missing statistics. Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow sparks analysis of China's strategic ties with Russia amid the Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, the CIA's unusual recruitment approach, using Mandarin-language videos, raises eyebrows on Chinese social media, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions.

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk, Asianometry and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today’s show Andrew and Bill take stock of the trade war one month after “Liberation Day.” Topics include: Domestic messaging on “struggle” and external promises to never kneel down, the risks facing the PRC as US tariffs threaten to compound overcapacity controversies and invite heightened scrutiny around the world, Week 3 of speculation on whether the US and China are negotiating on trade, and why talk of a resolution and return to the March status quo seems increasingly unrealistic. At the end: The April Politburo meeting reflects both caution and confidence, a study session on AI spells bad news for Nvidia, thoughts on Apple’s story in China as the company tries to relocate US iPhone assembly to India, and Netflix gets the last laugh 15 years after being rebuffed by PRC censors. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Xi inspects Shanghai, talks AI and Global South; "不跪/Never kneel down"; AI; Jack Ma and Huang Youlong — Sinocism April Politburo Study Session on AI is bad news for Nvidia — Sinocism Today, it is necessary to revisit On Protracted War. — Beijing Daily Never Kneel Down — Ministry of Foreign Affairs on X China exempts some goods from US tariffs — Reuters US tariffs could endanger 16 million export jobs in China: Goldman Sachs — SCMP Emerging markets set to become battlegrounds in trade war — Financial Times Trump says Xi called him, lays out trade and other deal plans in Time interview — Reuters Exclusive: Trump officials eye changes to Biden's AI chip export rule, sources say — Reuters Apple aims to source all US iPhones from India in pivot away from China — Financial Times Apple’s India Manufacturing Push Faces Spoilers, Including China — The Information Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company — Patrick McGee Netflix Co-CEO Says They’re Not in China Because ‘Not a Single Episode’ Cleared the Censorship Board — IndieWire