Sharp China with Bill Bishop

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the PRC readout from this weekend's meeting between XI Jinping and President Joe Biden, including the four red lines communicated by the PRC to the US, PRC language surrounding enhanced security ties between the US and pacific allies, and a farewell to the San Francisco vision. From there: Xi Jinping's message to APEC and the charm offensive planned for a Trump administration, China's calculus amid global climate initiatives, and extended thoughts on the recent mass casualties events around China and likely party responses. At the end: An update on the Trump transition, Howard Lutnick is picked to run the Commerce Department, and Apple and Google's calculus with respect to the TikTok law. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Xi-Biden meeting; Xi at APEC and the G-20; PRC armed drones to Russia?; COP29; Another mass killing; Xi on population trends — Sinocism Xi in Peru; Xinhua reporters find shoddy HSR construction; FT on Goldman's expensive China adventure — Sinocism President Xi Jinping Meets with U.S. President Joe Biden in Lima — MoFA Full Text of Chinese president's written speech at APEC CEO Summit — Xinhua US-China relations will depend on which Trump shows up — Financial Times China’s Overcapacity Can Help the World — Project Syndicate Chinese imports damage ‘dignity’ of Italian tomato, says Mutti chief — Wall Street Journal Mass Attacks in China Prompt Censorship, Clampdown on Mourning — Wall Street Journal The Sentinel State — Minxin Pei China rushes to connect with potential Trump officials — Financial Times Video SUV plowed into people outside Yong’an Primary School — X: @Byron_Wan Doctor Strangelove - Doomsday Machine — YouTube

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Friday's announcement from the NPC standing committee and more incremental stabilization measures from PRC leadership. Topics include: Foreign investors (again) hoping for more, "deepening reforms" and domestic consumption, the trade surplus with the US exceeds the trillion dollar threshold, and why attempts to build an alliance with the EU are unlikely to succeed. From there: Taiwan considers a big arms purchase as Trump prepares to take office, the Philippines aims to buy intermediate range missile launchers, and TSMC halts the sale of advanced chips to China. At the end: Trump's early cabinet picks, another report on Trump's plans for TikTok, the "reverse Nixon" dream, and Elon Musk's mother is a brand ambassador in the PRC. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Fiscal stabilization package; Trade surplus; Philippines-PRC tensions; TSMC; Waltz to be National Security Advisor — Sinocism China’s Stimulus Policies Now Put Emphasis on Consumption, Expert Says — Caixin Exclusive - China presses Europe for anti-U.S. alliance on trade — Reuters (2018) Ukraine war: EU’s next top envoy says China must pay ‘higher cost’ for backing Russia — SCMP Taiwan considers big US defence purchases as overture to Donald Trump — Financial Times Philippines aims to buy US missile launcher in move likely to anger China — Financial Times TSMC to close door on producing advanced AI chips for China from Monday — Financial Times Exclusive: US ordered TSMC to halt shipments to China of chips used in AI applications — Reuters Donald Trump’s cabinet picks signal tougher stance on China — Financial Times A Trump adviser on how the international economic system should change — The Economist Beijing’s Worst Nightmare After Trump’s Win: a ‘Reverse Nixon’ — Wall Street Journal Trump expected to try to halt TikTok ban, allies say — Washington Post Maye Musk, the mother of Elon Musk, is now the global brand ambassador of AISE baobao — X: @Byron_Wan Reverse ferret — Wikipedia

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through a second Donald Trump presidency and what it might mean for US-China relations. Topics include: a note of congratulations from Xi Jinping Thursday morning, memories of the first Trump presidency, the calculus from both sides as tariffs loom, a larger toolkit of responses to trade policy for the PRC, potential intermediaries between Trump's administration and PRC leadership, and the strategic challenges and opportunities that China sees in a Trump administration. At the end: TikTok’s fate and whether Trump will save the app’s future in the United States, additional details on the Salt Typhoon telecommunications hack, and thoughts on the Biden administration's approach to the PRC, and the challenges facing any U.S. administration. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Trump 2.0 and the PRC — Sinocism Xi congratulates Trump; Social work and stability; "Stimulus" rumors; October exports surge; TikTok; Hack of US telecoms — Sinocism China congratulates Trump, says it respects America's choice — Reuters China Learns How to Get Trump’s Ear: Through Jared Kushner — New York Times (2017) Donald Trump’s trade remedies reflect America’s troubled reality — Financial Times Markets Are Underpricing the Possibility of a U.S.-China Economic War — Foreign Policy Chinese officials struggle to build ties with Donald Trump’s campaign — Financial Times Americans Who Want to Do Business in China Need to Meet This Man — Wall Street Journal What Trump's win means for Ukraine, Middle East and China — BBC Americans, your calls and texts can be monitored by Chinese spies — Washington Post Chinese hackers gained access to huge trove of Americans’ cell records — Politico China Hack Enabled Vast Spying on U.S. Officials, Likely Ensnaring Thousands of Contacts — Wall Street Journal Trudeau government bans TikTok from operating in Canada — but Canadians can still use it — CBC TikTok Sees Trump Victory As App’s Best Hope — The Information Spotlight: Xi-Trump meeting helps achieve much friendlier tone in China-U.S. ties: experts — Xinhua

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an excellent report from Semi Analysis, and the state of the U.S. export controls on semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. Topics include: New reports of TSMC sales to Huawei-linked firms, the Commerce Department's oversight of chip controls, the various loopholes being routinely exploited by SMIC, Huawei and related entities, and enforcement questions for future administrations. From there: The NPC Standing Committee meeting is set for next week, the latest reports on what might be announced, and questions concerning the timing of the meeting, which will coincide with the US election. At the end: The PRC's crackdown on the private tutoring industry might be lifting, and reports that Chinese hackers targeted data from both Presidential campaigns. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Xi schools cadres; More stimulus talk; EU tariffs on PRC EVs go into effect; TSMC cuts of two customers over Huawei concerns — Sinocism NPCSC meeting; Politburo meeting on discipline; Politburo studies "building strong cultural nation; Huawei sanctions evasion; Pro-natal measures; Phone hacking — Sinocism Fab Whack-A-Mole: Chinese Companies are Evading U.S. Sanctions — SemiAnalysis TSMC suspended shipments to China firm after chip found on Huawei processor, sources say — Reuters TSMC cuts off at least two chip clients over potential Huawei links — Nikkei TSMC Chips Ended Up in Devices Made by China’s Huawei Despite U.S. Controls — New York Times Exclusive: China considers over $1.4 trillion in extra debt over next few years — Reuters China's private tutoring firms emerge from the shadows after crackdown — Reuters Chinese Hackers Are Said to Have Targeted Phones Used by Trump and Vance — New York Times

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping's visit to the16th BRICS Summit and Russia's rumored effort to build a platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions. From there: The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline that may or may not materialize, waiting for news on the next meeting of the NPC standing committee, and one theory on how the US election could impact the timing of the next fiscal announcement. Then: Xi's visit to a PLA Rocket Force brigade in Anhui, the rhetoric Xi uses surrounding the PLA and its readiness, and thoughts on the continued buildout of the PRC nuclear arsenal. At the end: A note on Taiwan's energy security, clarity on the names of the National Zoo’s new pandas, and a flurry of reports and questions surrounding Huawei, TSMC and the Commerce Department's oversight of export controls on chipmaking equipment. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Xi meets Putin; No announcement of NPC SC meeting; Rui Chenggang; Huawei and TSMC; Huawei's updated OS; VW exec deported — Sinocism Xi in Anhui, inspects nuclear missile brigade; Q3 GDP and rate cuts; BRICS; Export controls — Sinocism Xi Jinping to Attend the 16th BRICS Summit in Russia — MoFA At BRICS summit, Russia to push to end dollar dominance — Reuters Plan D — Doomberg China Moves to Support Markets After Data Showing Economy Slowed — Bloomberg Covering China’s National People’s Congress and its Standing Committee — NPC Observer Xi calls on Anhui to write its own chapter of Chinese modernization — Xinhua Adapting US strategy to account for China’s transformation into a peer nuclear power — The Atlantic Council Huawei Technologies’ Latest AI Chips Were Produced by TSMC — Bloomberg TSMC says it alerted US to potential violation of China AI chip controls — Financial Times U.S. Probes TSMC’s Dealings With Huawei — The Information Secretive Chip Startup May Help Huawei Circumvent US Sanctions — Bloomberg (2022) D.C.’s new pandas are named what, now? — Washington Post TSMC Cuts Off Client After Discovering Chips Diverted to Huawei — Bloomberg

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the PRC has sent two pandas to the National Zoo in Washington D.C., as Qing Bao, a 3-year-old year-old female, and Bao Li, a 3-year-old male, begin a 30-day quarantine in the Panda House. Then: Takeaways from Monday's Operation Joint Sword 2024B around Taiwan, including the strategic value of these military exercises for the PRC, and the implications of normalizing this pattern of behavior. From there: Parsing the "stimulus" news over the last several days, including the strain on local governments, why reports suggest that Xi and the central government are taking action to help them, and heightened scrutiny on overseas investments. At the end: Following up on Bill's conversation about the 2024 US Election, a Financial Times report on PRC educators ordered to surrender their passport, and an emailer provides a look at the new quality productive forces in dentistry. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Guessing about new bond issuance; Panda stimulus for US-China relations; Space plans; Tax collectors — Sinocism More special bonds for fiscal stimulus?; Stock market surge; Water-filled submarine; MSS mad at New Zealand; Raising money by detaining private entrepreneurs — Sinocism Giant pandas have returned to D.C. Meet Bao Li and Qing Bao. — Washington Post China Counts Wild Pandas. Nobody Believes Its Tally — New York Times The Panda Factories — New York Times PRC Military Drills Near Taiwan — US Department of State China ends war games around Taiwan, but leaves door open to more — Reuters China throwing a ‘temper tantrum’ with Taiwan drills, key Democrat says — Semafor (May 2024) China flags more fiscal stimulus for economy, leaves out key details on size — Reuters Exclusive: China May Add 6 Trillion Yuan in Treasury Bonds to Buttress Economy — Caixin Chinese Banks Set to Cut Deposit Rates as Soon as This Week — Bloomberg Behind Xi Jinping’s Pivot on Broad China Stimulus — Wall Street Journal China’s real intent behind its stimulus inflection — Financial Times Wealth China Moves to Tax the Ultra-Rich for Overseas Investment Gains — Bloomberg Substack Election Dialogues: China and the US election — Sinocism China tells schoolteachers to hand in their passports — Financial Times

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the market's reactions to the NDRC press briefing on Tuesday, as Hong Kong saw all of last week's gains erased, while the PRC markets continued to see gains. Topics include: Misplaced expectations on the NDRC press conference, a National People's Congress meeting later in October that may articulate more concrete measures, and more thoughts on the continued volatility in the market themselves as well as commentary around the world. From there: An emailer has a question about a potential ByteDance IPO, a note on the broader concerns that persist in the PRC, and the EU passes tariffs on PRC EVs. At the end: A note on Taiwan National Day and the potential for an Operation Joint Sword 2024B, and a listener notes that Xi Jinping is leaving China far less frequently than he once did. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Stock market volatility; Premier Li meetings on the economy; PRC goes after EU brandy; Wu Bangguo; Wang-Raimondo call; MSS on the "China Initiative" — Sinocism Stock market expectations; EU EV tariffs; Taiwan; Pakistan terror attack; Vietnam fishing boat attack — Sinocism China Markets Warn Xi That More Stimulus Is Needed to Fuel Rally — Bloomberg China targets brandy in EU trade tit-for-tat after EV tariff move — Reuters EU votes for tariffs on Chinese-made EVs in blockbuster trade row — SCMP ‘A very serious situation’: Volkswagen could close plants in Germany for the first time in history — CNN Communist China not the motherland, says Taiwan’s president, because our republic is older — The Guardian US concerned about Taiwan candidate — Financial Times (2011) China is using an “anaconda strategy” to squeeze Taiwan — The Economist

The podcast dives into the revived 'animal spirits' driving China's stock market surge, marking its biggest rally since 2008. A recent Politburo meeting hints at the government's commitment to economic stimulation. They explore challenges in the real estate sector, such as oversupply and declining consumer confidence. Diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and China are highlighted following a meeting between officials. The sinking of a nuclear submarine raises concerns about military capabilities, while uncertainties loom over Xi Jinping's potential succession.

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a raft of measures announced this week to stimulate the economy. Topics include: A pop to the stock market just in time for the PRC's 75th anniversary, stimulating mergers and acquisitions, whether this week's measures indicate more relief in the months to come, and more. Then: The disappearance of prominent economist Zhu Hengpeng, and a reminder of structural problems under Xi that have continued to intensify, regardless of monetary policy. At the end: The Ministry of Commerce announces that the owner of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger is under investigation, the US Commerce Department moves forward with a proposed rule that would effectively ban Chinese vehicles from the US, and a Substack post offers a taxonomy of Democrat China policies and questions about who might set the agenda for a Kamala Harris administration. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Addressing employment concerns; Stimulus!?; Connected vehicles and EU EV tariffs; CASS purge; Xinjiang cotton; ICBM test — Sinocism September Politburo Meeting to Analyze and Study Current Economic Situation and Economic Work; Investors Pumped — Sinocism China's central bank unveils most aggressive stimulus since pandemic — Reuters Five Key Takeaways as China Unveils Stimulus to Boost Economy — Bloomberg Xi’s Economic Adrenaline Shot Is Only Buying China a Little Time — Bloomberg Top Economist in China Vanishes After Private WeChat Comments — Wall Street Journal Beijing Threatens to Block Calvin Klein Owner’s Access to China — Wall Street Journal US proposes banning Chinese software and components in vehicles — Financial Times Relitigating China Policy — Matt Turpin Washington’s Playbook for China Must Change — Foreign Policy The Case Against the China Consensus — Foreign Affairs

Get all episodes of Sharp China, Sharp Tech, Stratechery Updates and Interviews, Greatest of All Talk and the Dithering Podcast as part of Stratechery Plus for $15/month or $150/year. Bill Bishop is the author of Sinocism On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin by wishing a happy Mid-Autumn Festival to all. Then: The PRC government implements the Decision on Gradually Raising the Statutory Retirement Ages. Why was this necessary, why were the changes made now, and what might this signal about the rest of goals and reforms announced at the Third Plenum? From there: The PRC blockade at Xianbin Jiao/Sabina Shoal appears to have succeeded as the Philippines returns the BRP Theresa Magbanua to port, and questions persist as to when, and how, the US might deter PRC tactics in the South China Sea. At the end: The latest lobbying effort surrounding updated export controls, Japan's negotiations with the US over export controls, the Biden administration takes on the de minimis loophole, and TikTok’s trial begins in DC. To email the show: email@sharpchina.fm @SharpTechPodcast Channel — YouTube @Stratechery Channel — YouTube Economic data; Retirement ages; A win for the PRC at Xianbin Jiao/Sabina Shoal?; US pastor released; US chip export controls — Sinocism Overcapacity; National security; Japan and chip controls; Moutai; Big food concept — Sinocism China Raises Retirement Age for the First Time Since the 1950s — New York Times Commentary & Translation: China’s Plan to Raise Statutory Retirement Ages — NPC Observer China’s working age population is shrinking — CNBC U.S. 'ready' to assist Philippines with South China Sea resupplies — Nikkei Video by Joseph Morong — X: @Joseph_Morong Philippines Withdraws Ship From South China Sea Flashpoint — Bloomberg Philippines Vows to Return to Disputed Shoal After Ship Pullout — Bloomberg US strategists face dilemma over Beijing claim in South China Sea — Financial Times (2014) China rams Philippine ship while 60 Minutes on board; South China Sea tensions could draw U.S. in — 60 Minutes Thread from the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party — X: @committeeonccp US and Japan near deal to curb chip technology exports to China — Financial Times Analysis: China moves to play 'Okinawa card' over Japan's Taiwan stance — Nikkei FACT SHEET: Biden-⁠Harris Administration Announces New Actions to Protect American Consumers, Workers, and Businesses by Cracking Down on De Minimis Shipments with Unsafe, Unfairly Traded Products — The White House Court Appears Skeptical of TikTok’s Challenge to U.S. Ban — Wall Street Journal How a Tariff Rule Aimed at China Could Affect U.S. Ad Spending — Wall Street Journal