Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

John is a commodity guru amongst other things. He has 25 years of experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks on both sides of the Atlantic in research, strategy, asset allocation, and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world’s largest institutional and private investors in matters ranging from wealth preservation to enhancing returns through a wide variety of innovative strategies, and he has been ranked the #1 Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and The Golden Revolution (John Wiley and Sons, 2012), and The Golden Revolution, Revisited In this podcast we discuss why the inflation pressures will remain, why the dollar is vulnerable, risks of escalating global conflicts, and much more.

Dan Zwirn is the Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Arena Investors LP. Arena is a $3.4 billion global investment firm focusing on special situations asset and credit investments in corporates, real estate, structured finance, and corporate securities.  Before founding Arena in 2015, between 2009 and 2015, Dan founded and/or led several specialty finance enterprises including Applied Data Finance (a consumer finance company), North Mill Capital (an asset-based lender), and Lantern Endowment Partners (an investment fund). In 2001, while a founder of the Special Opportunities Group at Highbridge Capital Management, Dan, along with Highbridge, co-founded D.B. Zwirn & Co., a global special situations firm, which grew into a $6 billion enterprise. In this podcast we discuss, the problem with niche investors, why global bottom-up investing works, the big risks for the next 12 months, and much more.

This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. Josh Young is the Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Bison Interests – an investment firm that focuses on the publicly traded oil and gas sector. He has over 15 years of experience in investment management, 10 of which were focused on publicly-traded oil and gas securities. Josh became Chairman of the Board of RMP Energy in 2017. After refreshing the board and management team and rebranding the company (Iron Bridge Resources), it was bought out at a 78% premium in 2018.  Before this, Josh was a management consultant to Fortune 500 companies and private equity firms, and then an investment analyst at a private equity fund. Josh worked as an energy investment analyst for a multi-billion-dollar, single family office. In this podcast we discuss: Understanding the energy sector, the cost of drilling, impact of ESG on the energy sector, and why oil input isn’t higher. He also discussed the structural supply issues for the energy sector, the investment needs to maintain supply, the regulatory pressures on supply, if the Middle East can step up supply, and the best to get exposure to energy. On a more personal note he also revealed the books that influenced him the most: The First Billion Is the Hardest (Pickens) and Fooling Some of the People All of the Time (Einhorn).

Denise Shull is the Founder and CEO of ReThink. In that role, she uses neuroscience and modern psychoanalysis to help clients become successful in investing, trading, and leading teams. She has consulted on the development of Showtime’s BILLIONS, coached Olympic champions, and often appears on CNBC, Bloomberg and in the Wall Street Journal. Before ReThink, Denise worked in finance. She started at one of the first electronic trading firms in Chicago, then traded at Schonfeld Securities before she ran her own desk at Sharpe Capital. Denise holds a Master of Arts from the University of Chicago. Her thesis was cited in 2013 as one of the first papers written about neuropsychoanalysis. In this podcast we discuss: Why understanding perception, judgment and decision-making matters, how your unconscious affects your decision making, the particular challenge of trading and investing in markets, the role of emotions and why we can’t ignore them, and the difference between emotions and impulse. She further discussed how to understand conviction levels, using intuition over impulse, how to incorporate emotions into your dataset, traits of successful traders, and how to set up a hedge fund. On the more personal side she revealed the books that influenced her the most: Seven and a Half Lessons About the Brain (Feldman Barret), and The Drama of the Gifted Child (Miller).

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a macro strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy and sell side. Before moving to the US, she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss: Why Powell and the Fed reacted late to inflation, comparison to Volker period, if the Fed has a framework, and how strong the Fed Board is. She further discussed why the US labour market is weaker than most think, why structural inflation is still low, why the US will enter a recession, unintended consequences of Russia-Ukraine War, and much more.

This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. Andy Constan has spent the past 33 years investing and trading global markets. He’s worked at leading hedge funds Bridgewater Associates and Brevan Howard as Chief Strategist. Andy started his career at Salomon Brothers. He is the founder of Damped Spring Advisors. In this podcast we discuss: What Andy learned from Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, setting up all-weather portfolios, the problem with bonds, and how to outperform the market. Andy further talked about using flow and position data and macro news, the impact of mortgage convexity hedging on bonds, what is next for the Fed, and whether equities are overvalued. Finally, he discussed his views on inflation, his favourite trades, and the books that influenced him the most: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefevre), The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities (Fabozzi), Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives (Hull), Principles: Life and Work (Dalio) and Liar’s Poker (Lewis). For great macro and investment insights from some of the world's most seasoned researchers, visit macrohive.com.  

Timothy is a Senior EM Sovereign Strategist at the $125bn fund, BlueBay, and is widely considered one of the leading experts on Ukraine and Russia. Prior to joining BlueBay, Tim was Head of CEEMEA Credit Strategy at Nomura International. Before this he was Head of EM Research (ex-Africa) at ICBC-Standard Bank until May 2015; Head of Emerging Markets Research at the Royal Bank of Scotland until June 2012; and Head of EMEA fixed income research at Bear Stearns International (later JPMorgan Chase) until April 2008. In this podcast we discuss: Why Timothy has been expecting a larger conflict since 2015, western exposure to Russia and ESG, Putin’s motivations, and why NATO expansion is not the core issue. He also talked about the scale of the sanctions, chances of regime change in Russia, why the conflict won’t end soon, how China fits into the picture, and why this is a globally systemic event.

Jurrien is the director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments. Fidelity is the one of the largest asset managers in the world. He is part of Fidelity’s Global Asset Allocation group, where he specialises in asset allocation and global macro strategy. He has held various other roles at Fidelity, including director of market research and technical research analyst. He also co-managed Fidelity Global Strategies Fund from 2007 to 2014. Before joining Fidelity in 1995, Jurrien was a vice president in the Fixed Income group at ABN AMRO Capital markets in New York. He has been in the financial industry since 1985. In this podcast we discuss: How the Russia/Ukraine conflict will impact markets, the importance of energy prices, whether non-US stocks can outperform, and current parallels to the late 1960s. Jurrien also discussed the case for S&P500 at 8000, why the 1970s parallels could be overstated, how to fit crypto into your portfolio, and the difference between bitcoin and the rest. Finally, Jurrien revealed the books that influenced him the most: Going to Pieces Without Falling Apart (Epstein) and The Art of Loving (Fromm). For great macro and investment insights from some of the world's most seasoned researchers, visit macrohive.com

This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. John is the Kenneth C. Griffin Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago. His new book is The Voltage Effect: How to Make Good Ideas Great and Great Ideas Scale. He has worked with firms such as Lyft, Uber, Citadel and several non-profits. His academic research includes more than 200 peer-reviewed journal articles and several published books. John was elected a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2011 and a fellow of the Econometric Society in 2015. He is a current editor of the Journal of Political Economy. In this podcast we discuss: The importance of field experiments and scaling in economics, what John learned at Uber, and the optimal way to get tips. He also discussed how to avoid false positives, thinking about spillovers and network effects, avoiding the cost trap, and how to incentivize scaling. On a more personal side, John revealed the books that influenced him the most: Wealth of Nations (Smith), The Theory of Moral Sentiments (Smith), Anna Karenina (Tolstoy), Principles of Economics (Marshall), Economics (Samuelson), Elementary Principles of Economics (Fisher).

Greg is a Special Writer at The Wall Street Journal. He is the author of A Shot to Save the World: The Inside Story of the Life-or-Death Race for a COVID-19 Vaccine. The book has been optioned by HBO for a series from Academy Award winning director Adam McKay. Greg is also the author of the bestseller: The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched a Quant Revolution. In this podcast we discuss: Why Big Pharma did not develop the COVID vaccine, how the vaccine was developed so quickly, key players in vaccine development, and what mRNA and adenovirus vaccines are. Greg also gave his views on the outlook of vaccine breakthroughs for other diseases, what made Jim Simons the top investor of all-time, and the importance of culture. On a personal note, Greg shared the books that influenced him most: Den of Thieves (Stewart) , Liar’s Poker (Lewis), Barbarians at the Gate (Burrough) and Indecent Exposure (McClintick).