Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

This episode is sponsored by Amber Group Marion is a senior economist at Deutsche Bank in London and a lecturer at Harvard University. She has extensive private sector, public policy, and monetary policy experience, including at the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, the Luxembourg Central Bank, and Barclays. She received first prize from the American Society of Actuaries, Revue Banque nominated her as a rising star in finance, and Business Insider named her a cryptocurrency mastermind. Laboure holds a bachelor’s degree from Université Paris Dauphine, a master’s degree from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and a Doctorate of Philosophy from the Ecole normale supérieure in Paris. On this podcast we discussed: 1) Experience of working for the European Commission. 2) How fintech is impacting developing countries. 3) The financial challenges of millennials. 4) The problem of financial literacy amongst retail investors. 5) Why are crypto markets so volatile. 6) The impact of central bank liquidity on crypto. 7) Crypto: payment vs digital gold. 8) The rise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). 9) Will CBDC displace banks? 10) Can crypto displace the fiat financial system? 11) Books that influenced Marion: The Curse of Cash (Rogoff), The End of Alchemy (King).

Ray is the Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at Pictet Asset Management. He joined Pictet in 2010 as Head of Total Return Fixed Income, before becoming CIO in 2017 and an Equity Partner in 2018. Before joining Pictet, Raymond was head of dollar and euro credit investments at Swiss Re Asset Management. Before that, he worked for Bank Brussels Lambert (ING) trading US Credit. He has traded credit across all major geographies and began his career at ING Barings in Emerging Markets in 1997. Raymond holds a Bachelor's in Economics from the London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Master's in Contemporary Theology in the Catholic Tradition from Heythrop College, University of London. On this podcast we discussed: 1) Why investing globally gives you an edge. 2) The importance of trading across the capital structure of companies. 3) Why price matters. 4) Making illiquidity your friend. 5) What investors are currently missing – the credit cycle. 6) How to manage an investment team. 7) Nurture vs narcissism. 8) What to look for in new hires. 9) The importance of managing the exit process well. 10) When trading, knowing when to cut. 11) Understanding that it’s easier to buy and harder to sell. 12) Books that influenced Ray: Brave New World (Huxley), Liar’s Poker (Lewis), The New Encyclopedia of Modern Bodybuilding (Schwarzenegger).

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a Senior Macro Strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha-generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in-depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy- and sell-side. Before moving to the US, she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss:   1) How the Fed is setting policy based on the latest inflation print. 2) Why the Fed has lost its bearings in its inflation strategy. 3) Why a terminal Fed Funds Rate around 8% is likely. 4) Why the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey tells us more about inflation than growth. 5) Why the Fed could struggle to slow the economy. 6) What investors should look out for. 7) Why higher demand for consumer durables could be the new normal. 8) Whether the US will go into recession in 2023  You can follow Dominque’s work here     

Thorsten spent twenty years trading equity derivatives and was a partner at Bear Stearns. He was also head of equity derivatives at Panmure Gordan and Head of Trading Warrants and Structured Products at WestLB. Currently, he educates and lectures on derivative markets. On this podcast we discussed a simple explanation of options, how to understand volatility, and how to trade VIX. He also gave his views on skew and the volatility smile, how to manage your options position, understanding the greeks – delta, gamma, theta, and the different players in the options market. Finally, on a more personal note, Thorsten shared the books that influenced him the most: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefvre), and Atlas Shrugged (Rand).

Stéphane is CEO and Co-Founder of FRNT Financial – a crypto-focused investment bank. He began his capital markets career working in the Equity Products group on the trading floor at BMO Capital Markets (BMO) in 2010 as a Cash Equity Sales Trader. He eventually transitioned into BMO’s hedge fund sales trading group and added coverage of equity options and equity swaps. In 2018, Stéphane left BMO to start FRNT Financial. In August 2019, Stéphane was elected Chairman of the Canadian Security Traders Association (CSTA) following a term as Vice Chairman. On this podcast we discussed use cases for crypto, why the differences between Ethereum and bitcoin are exaggerated, what to look out for when investing in crypto, and much more.

Jay spent 40 years in international finance, including at Elliot Management and Lehmans. His primary focus was on distressed EM sovereign debt. He was central to the historic 15-year fight to recover billions of dollars in defaulted Argentine debt. That campaign, which included the court-approved seizure of an Argentinian Navy ship in Ghana with 200 people aboard in 2012, reached a successful conclusion in 2016. The Wall Street Journal reported that the settlement was worth $2.4 billion, a gain of roughly 10 to 15 times the original investment. The Financial Times said the settlement ‘is seen as one of the greatest hedge fund trades’ in history. Jay has now switched to writing with his debut novel, about dark money and global politics, Undermoney. On this podcast we discussed how to sue a country, how countries like Russia evade sanctions, how illicit money is moved through central banks, and much more.

Mike is the Chief Executive Officer of ReSolve Global Asset Management. He has over 29 years of experience in investment management and is responsible for investment decisions, coaching, and strategic leadership. He has co-authored the book Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Times – and Bad. Before his investment career, Mike played professional football. In this podcast, we discussed how to invest in different stages of the business cycle, whether valuations matter, the benefits of machine learning and much more. 

This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. Tymofiy Mylovanov is the President of the Kyiv School of Economics, advisor to Ukrainian President Zelensky and former Ukrainian Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture. He is currently focused on humanitarian work for Ukraine. In the podcast, we talk about the real reason for Russia’s invasion, the three levers of economic power Russia has over the world, the state of the Russian army compared to Soviet times, and much more.

Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about why recession risks are overstated, whether real earnings will increase, energy investment and higher inventories as the new normal, and so much more. 

John is a commodity guru amongst other things. He has 25 years of experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks on both sides of the Atlantic in research, strategy, asset allocation, and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world’s largest institutional and private investors in matters ranging from wealth preservation to enhancing returns through a wide variety of innovative strategies, and he has been ranked the #1 Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and The Golden Revolution (John Wiley and Sons, 2012), and The Golden Revolution, Revisited In this podcast we discuss why the inflation pressures will remain, why the dollar is vulnerable, risks of escalating global conflicts, and much more.