The Horn

As rains swell the Blue Nile, Ethiopia has made clear its intent to soon start filling the massive dam it is building. However, it has yet to reach an agreement with its two downstream neighbours, Sudan, and Egypt.Trilateral talks resumed in early June, and while most elements have been agreed upon, two key issues remain unresolved: drought mitigation and dispute resolution. The gap to reach an agreement is closing fast.William Davison, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, returns to The Horn once more to unpack the complex dynamics at play. He and Alan discuss negotiations, technical issues, and the parties' various concerns. He stresses that all three need to compromise if they hope to reach a deal, lest tensions rise further.For more information, read our statement: Nile Dam Talks: A Short Window to Embrace Compromise Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The "age-old story of the rise and fall of great powers", already in motion, has been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.So says Abdul Mohammed, chief of staff and senior political advisor for the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel. Amid waning U.S. influence, the steady rise of China, and a new era of competition between the two, he asks, where does Africa fit in?The continent has undergone a dynamic transformation over the past twenty years. In the absence of robust, long-term U.S. engagement, China has emerged as the continent's most important economic partner. Meanwhile, the U.S. is now primarily focused on sidelining China in Africa rather than providing the transformative engagement needed.With the continent now caught between these two opposing geopolitical forces, just like the rest of the world, Abdul argues that Africans cannot afford to be passive. They will need to "play a weak hand well" by positioning themselves as relevant actors, both in managing the current pandemic and in contributing to the shaping of a future global order. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Africa’s priority in fighting COVID-19 is to find the right “balance between saving lives and saving livelihoods”, based on the experience of what happened in Europe, the United States, and China, says Dr. John Nkengasong, Director of Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), the African Union body coordinating the response to the pandemic on the continent.The wave of COVID-19 infections that many predicted would cruelly expose Africa’s weak health systems has not materialized on the continent thanks to early lockdown measures, lessons learnt from the Ebola and HIV crises, and strong leadership and coordination on a continental level.But Africa is not out of the woods yet, and as European countries start easing lockdowns, Africa needs to redouble its efforts if it wants to avoid a massive spread of the disease. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Africa has been hit with a double punch. The economic fallout of COVID-19 has preceded the health crisis, resulting in job losses and endangering food supplies. The pandemic's impact on the region's tumultuous political transitions could be grave. The international community has moved surprisingly quickly in response to the pandemic, but is it enough? EU Special Representative to the Horn of Africa Alexander Rondos explains that greater regional cooperation is needed to address the potential consequences wrought by the crisis. Only by working more closely together can they develop an effective strategy for pandemic relief. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

“Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change across the world, and yet is the least responsible”.Climate change is a threat multiplier. Its ability to disrupt livelihoods, change migration patterns, and complicate political imbalances make it an increasingly significant driver of conflict. David Mozersky, co-founder of Energy Peace Partners and a former Crisis Group project director for the region, is Alan’s guest this week. They examine the conflict in Darfur, UN climate goals, and the international community’s carbon footprint.For more information, see our President and CEO Robert Malley talking to the UN Security Council: https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=791719564689357&ref=watch_permalink Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

“COVID-19 is not just an epidemic, but a highly complex emergency”. The implications of the coronavirus pandemic are still unclear. But the looming global recession and direct impact of containment measures on livelihoods make this an unprecedented crisis for Africa. Furthermore, the U.S., once an important ally in times of health crises, has turned its back on the continent, especially after President Trump’s “reckless” decision to terminate funding for the World Health Organization. Worst-hit countries are now faced with the prospect of major food shortages, political fragility, and major economic dislocation. Alex de Waal, an expert on the continent who has written extensively on the effects of pandemics on political power, joins Alan this week to discuss the international system’s ability to respond to the new crisis in Africa and the value of community-led strategies to help blunt the impact.Articles on COVID-19:New Pathogen, Old Politics (Boston Review)COVID-19 in Africa: “Know your Epidemic, Act on its Politics." (African Arguments)Governance Implications of Epidemic Disease in Africa: Updating the Agenda for COVID-19Books discussed: AIDS and Power: Why there is no Political Crisis - YetThe Real Politics of the Horn of AfricaMass Starvation: The History and Future of Famine Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We continue our COVID-19 series with a 360-degree view of perspectives on the pandemic’s impact. Five Crisis Group analysts look at the risks and opportunities in Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania, and South Sudan, as well as the profound political and economic implications of the disease. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

COVID-19 poses an enormous threat in the Horn of Africa. Beyond deadly risks to public health and hospitals, democratic systems are already affected and critical diplomatic efforts disrupted. Outbreaks in camps housing refugees and other populations displaced by conflict could be catastrophic.Kenyan diplomat Ambassador Mahboub Maalim joins Alan for this second special COVID-19 episode. They discuss the implications of the disease on vulnerable populations, the threat to multilateral institutions and the limits of virtual diplomacy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The death and disruption wrought by the coronavirus pandemic have already been felt by much of the world. With the disease now making its way across East Africa, Alan Boswell sat down with journalist April Zhu to discuss the challenges the region faces.Overstretched healthcare systems, the consequences of a global economic depression on stability, and the long-term geopolitical implications of China’s growing engagement are all covered in this first episode of a special COVID-19 series on The Horn.For more information, see our recent briefing on the possible political effects of the contagion: COVID-19 and Conflict: Seven Trends to Watch. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan are struggling to reach agreement over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.Ethiopia, which sees the dam as a defining national development project, is ready to start filling it; Sudan, a historic ally of Egypt, covets the cheap electricity and expanded agricultural production that it promises; while Egypt remains deeply concerned about the impact it could have on the Nile’s water flow.Harry Verhoeven, a leading academic expert on the issue, joins Alan this week to discuss the current impasse. They examine the technical issues, the politicization of the dam, understandings of security and power, the role of the U.S. Treasury, and what the dam could contribute toward poverty reduction, environmental sustainability and agricultural productivity in the Nile Basin.For more information, see our Commentary, Calming the Choppy Nile Dam Talks and our report, Bridging the Gap in the Nile Waters Dispute Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.