The Horn

With President Farmajo’s mandate due to end in just two weeks and little consensus on the way forward, a delay in Somalia’s high-stakes elections appears inevitable.Back with Alan to explain why a mid-September agreement on electoral changes has unraveled is Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Somalia. Together they chart the various scenarios the country could be headed toward, taking into account the major issues fuelling tensions between Farmajo, regional states, and political opposition. To steer clear of contestation and resulting unrest further down the line, Omar underlines the need for renewed agreement between the parties on a realistic electoral timeline. He tells Alan that failure to establish a framework for political order in Somalia after 8 February could heighten clan-based grievances, the risks of Al-Shabaab violence, and the new involvement of regional actors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Director Murithi Mutiga joins Alan Boswell to debate which regional conflicts and crises are most prominent on their radars for 2021.From the myriad political and security crises in Ethiopia ahead of elections to the enduring economic woes troubling Sudan’s transition, this year promises to be pivotal.Murithi tells Alan that much hinges on political elites’ capacity for dialogue, compromise, and reform. Recent events have demonstrated how easily unrest can reverberate across borders, so whether our gaze is on who emerges successful out of Somalia’s polls or what Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki is planning, it is how these dynamics overlap that will prove most telling. For more information, explore our work on the Horn of Africa region: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

During our brief season break, we're re-running an earlier episode from Season 2 that new subscribers may have missed. We will be back in January with a brand new line-up!Alan talks to Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director Comfort Ero about how the politics of conflict and peacemaking have changed — and not changed — across the African continent during the decade that she has led the organization’s work on Africa.They discuss power struggles in the Horn of Africa as America’s primacy wanes, the African Union’s more assertive role in peace and security, and how African leaders should manage their relationships with China to strengthen conflict resolution on the continent, not repressive authoritarian regimes. They also explore the benefits and risks of talking about African solutions to African problems, and the need to take into account the crucial national interests that can drive a state to try to shape the future of a neighboring country. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The U.S. was South Sudan’s most important ally on its path to independence in 2011 and a major player during talks that led to a peace deal in 2015. The agreement collapsed soon after, plunging the country into a wider civil war and a humanitarian crisis that has deepened since. Joining Alan to look back on America’s role in South Sudan and the Obama administration’s struggles to bring peace to the young country is Jon Temin, Africa director at Freedom House and a former State Department official from 2014 to 2017. He reflects on what the U.S. got wrong in its approach to brokering peace once South Sudan achieved statehood, what factors influenced its policy at critical junctures along the way and why the country’s fate ultimately lies in the hands of the South Sudanese people and regional actors.As the incoming Biden administration configures its policy priorities in Africa, they also discuss how these takeaways will likely inform future peacemaking efforts on the continent. For more information, read Jon Temin’s report for the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum and his piece in Foreign Affairs: What the United States Got Wrong in South Sudan.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the conflict in Tigray declared over by the federal government, Ethiopia’s complex transition is at a daunting crossroads. Steering the country into calmer waters ahead of the upcoming elections will require difficult political navigation by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.Regional autonomy demands, border disputes, and recurring bouts of inter-ethnic violence lay bare the many fault lines that remain. What will it take to successfully bridge the competing agendas of ethnonationalism and pan-Ethiopianism to find a workable middle ground on which to advance Ethiopia’s democratic transition?Constitutional specialist and political analyst Adem Kassie Abebe, a Program Officer at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), joins Alan to give his personal take on the likelihood of a Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) insurgency, the imperative of inclusive national dialogue in the near future and the different directions the country could be headed in given these uncertainties. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The last four years of relative U.S. absence in Africa contrast starkly with the country’s historically oversized role in shaping peace and security on the continent. Has this shift set the tone for years to come or will President-elect Biden seek to re-engage as an active partner?Crisis Group’s Chief of Staff Brittany Brown, having worked on African affairs under Presidents Bush, Obama, and Trump, joins Alan for a look at what Biden’s foreign policy priorities should be. Together they draw parallels between previous U.S. administrations to envisage whether the incoming Biden team will mark a departure from past approaches to China, human rights, counter-terrorism, and multilateralism in Africa – and the Horn of Africa region in particular. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A war that many feared was possible but hoped would never happen appears to be underway between Ethiopia’s federal forces and those commanded by the northern Tigray region. William Davison, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, walks Alan through the long-simmering tensions that set both sides on the course to armed conflict. Joining from Addis Ababa, he gives his assessment of how the conflict is playing out, stressing the urgent need for concerted diplomatic intervention to bring a potentially protracted conflict situation to a halt. Alan is also joined by Crisis Group’s Deputy Africa Program Director Dino Mahtani for an overview of how a full-blown civil war could not only wreak devastation in Ethiopia but also have grave consequences for peace and security in its neighborhood and Africa at large. For more information, see:Ethiopia’s Clash with Tigray: Getting to a Ceasefire and National DialogueSteering Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis Away from ConflictThe Horn S1 Episode 9: Ethiopia’s Fragile Transition Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Almost eighteen months after a popular revolution ousted President Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s transition remains on shaky ground. While the Juba peace agreement signed in August and President Trump’s recent announcement that Sudan will be removed from the U.S. State Sponsors of Terrorism (SST) list are welcome developments, the economic crisis and societal frustrations remain unchanged in the absence of substantial support from the international community. On his return from Khartoum, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Sudan, Jonas Horner, joins Alan to explain how this lack of buy-in endangers these initial signs of progress, why the way political alignments are currently shifting in the capital is cause for concern, what post-Bashir Sudan looks like on the ground and where it looks to be headed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The onslaught of COVID-19 combined with a host of upcoming elections are putting Africa’s peacebuilding institutions and democratic resilience to the test. Managing the overlapping challenges in many countries, several of them undergoing critical transitions, will require a balance between forming consensus internally and collaborating with external partners. Joining Alan this week to discuss peace and security on the continent is Hanna Tetteh, UN Under Secretary General and Special Representative to the Secretary General to the African Union. Drawing on her own experience and the cases of Sudan and South Sudan in particular, she shares her thoughts on the importance of finding solutions on common issues within multilateral frameworks, strengthening the partnership between the AU and UN and building truly inclusive peace processes.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

President Isaias Afwerki has become virtually synonymous with the state of Eritrea, having single-handedly molded the country in his image since its inception in 1991. Alan is joined this week by Martin Plaut – author, journalist and now Senior Fellow at the University of London – who has covered Eritrea’s trajectory for almost 40 years.  Together they explore how Isaias has maintained his unyielding grip on power while pursuing his geopolitical ambitions in the region and further afield. Martin describes a country pervaded with regime paranoia, extreme domestic repression, and isolationism that has somehow also managed to leverage itself into strategic partnerships with actors ranging from the UAE and Saudi Arabia to insurgent groups.This in-depth conversation offers insights into the inner workings of the Horn of Africa’s most off-the-radar country, the shape-shifting quality of Isaias’ shrewd foreign policy as well as the uncertain future of a post-Isaias Eritrea.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.