The Red Line

When Obama left the White House he stated that the thing that kept him up at night more than anything else was the potential for Pakistan and India to stumble into an unplanned nuclear exchange.  What was once a regional conflict has now drawn in a number of great powers such as China, and the US, but no side yet has a real plan to try to avert the risk of this simmering conflict going nuclear. The estimate is that in the event of an Indian invasion toward Islamabad the Pakistani command may only have around 6 hours to either "use or lose" their nuclear weapons, so we ask our panel what the likely outcome will be for this nightmare scenario.  On the panel this week.  Ayesha Jalal (Tufts University) Adam Weinstein (Foreign Policy) Andrew Small (George Marshall Fund) For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For a number of years Iraq has been spiraling, with worsening insurgencies, sectarian violence and numerous regional players all treating Iraq like a political battleground. How did we get here though? What was the decision made to bring Iraq to the point we stand at now, and will decisions coming up better or worsen the situation? On the panel this week.  JAMES LEBOVIC  (George Washington University) DIYAR AMEEN (Kurdistan Mission to the EU) JOSEPH VOTEL (Rtr 4-Star US General) For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We dont think much about it but Rare Earth elements are a huge part of our everyday life, powering our phones, laptops, satellites and cars. The thing we all overlook though is where those Rare Earths are coming from, and right now China controls 98%+ of the market, meaning that every single high technology item we use at some point relies on China.  That issue compounds as well when you realise that this problem extends to the defence industry, with state of the art US fighters such as the F-35 being unbuildable if the Chinese refuse to do their part of the process. The situation is far more complicated than many people realise, and we may be a decade from any real solution.  This weeks guests - Guillaume Pitron (Le Monde Diplomatique) - Julie Klinger (University of Delaware) - Teague Egan (EnergyX) - Sophia Kalantzakos (New York University) For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on - @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on - @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Lake Chad has shrunk by almost 90% since 1960, and the situation on the ground is becoming a breeding ground for regional terrorism. Outfits like Boko Haram, and ISIS in Africa are now capturing big patches of land in Lake Chad Region.  France, the US, and their regional partners are trying desperately to avoid the situation spinning out of control, but with a shrinking lake how successful can they be? This weeks panel Tomasz Rolbiecki (Uni of Gdansk) Vincent Foucher (CNRS + Crisis Group) John Campbell (CFR + Fmr US Ambassador) For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Russias entire defense strategy relies on a friendly or neutral Ukraine, so when Ukraine almost turned to the west in a revolution in 2014 panic swept the Kremlin; and Russia invaded and occupied the Crimean peninsula and the Donbas region in the East.  Will this war slow down to frozen conflict like in Transnistria, or will it roar back to life like in Karabakh, we ask our expert panel.  This week  Steven Pifer (Brookings Institute) Gustav Gressel (European Council of Foreign Relations) Thomas Graham (Yale University) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus More info at - www.theredlinepodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Xi has thrown down the gauntlet and stated that Taiwan will return to the Peoples Republic of China by 2049, whether Taiwan wants it or not. So now a countdown timer has started, and Taiwan scrambles to prepare for what Beijing may throw at it. Should they build a large navy? Should they try and push the Chinese back into sea fighting on the beaches? Should the Taiwanese retreat to the jungles and fight a bloody insurgency from there? We ask our expert panel what strategy Taiwan is likely to take, and whether or not it is likely to be effective against the entire PLA. This weeks panel Eric Gomez (CATO Institute) Sheena Chestnut Greitens (University of Texas) Robert D Kaplan (Geopolitics Author) More info at - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

No country could possibly feel more like "the edge of the known world" than the Central Asian republic of Tajikistan.  A nation where the president has been in power since '92 and has ruled the country with an iron fist, amassing a huge amount of wealth for himself using everything from Aluminum to Heroine; but things are beginning to change and Dushanbe could very soon be answering to new masters. Tajikistan is the latest battleground between Beijing and Moscow, the winner of which is yet to be decided.  This weeks panel  Peter Leonard (Eurasianet) John Heathershaw (Exeter University) Edward Lemon (Oxus Society) Mathieu Boulegue (Chatham House) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Or follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus More info at - www.theredlinepodcast.com Support the show at - https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Colombia has always been closely associated with the international Cocaine trade, but the situation there is far more complicated with wider ramifications for the entire region.  The government of Bogota has been at war with the rebels in a 6-way struggle for almost 60 years, with a peace deal now sitting on the table. Is this deal a workable peace though, or just the start of the next phase? We ask our expert panel.  Allison Fedirka (Geopolitical Futures) Ted Piccone (Brookings Institution) Chris Sabatini (Chatham House) For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod or Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Like many of the ex-soviet republics, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been part of the frozen conflict now since the early '90s, but Azerbaijan has spent the last few years building up a massive modern army. Baku has now used that army to engage in a full-scale war with Armenia in an attempt to recapture the land lost in 91.  With the Armenians in full retreat and the Azeris moving into their old positions what will this mean for the region? Will Ankara or Moscow have the final say on the battlefield? We ask our expert panel. ALEX RAUFOGLU (Eurasia Journalist) NICK MUTCH (Byline Times) CAREY CAVANAUGH (Fmr US Ambassador) LAURENCE BROERS (Chatham House) More info on - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at - www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The podcast explores the geopolitical importance of Indonesia in the power balance between the US and China. It discusses Indonesia's diversity, national identity, and challenges faced in the past. The role of Sukano, a visionary leader, and the expectations on President Jokowidodo are explored. The challenges in infrastructure development, Indonesian armed forces, and Indonesia's role in ASEAN are also discussed, along with navigating geopolitical challenges in Southeast Asia.