Ukraine's pro-Russian or neutral position is crucial for Russia's defense strategy.
The conflict in Ukraine poses challenges in political reforms, corruption, and revitalizing the economy.
Russia aims to keep Ukraine under its influence to achieve its strategic goals.
Deep dives
Understanding Russia's Strategic Thinking
Russia's strategic thinking is based on the concept of defense in depth, which stems from historical invasions by Napoleon and Hitler. This strategy involves stretching forces thin across a long front line, making it easier for the enemy to go around them and pocket them. After World War II, Russia pushed its defense perimeter westward to protect its heartland, anchoring itself south in the mountains and securing Austria and Yugoslavia as buffers. However, with NATO's expansion into the Baltics and the presence of bombers near St. Petersburg, Russia's defense has become more challenging.
The Importance of Ukraine
Ukraine plays a crucial role in Russia's defense strategy. If Ukraine were to flip to NATO, it would expose Russia's southern flank and significantly stretch its troops to defend the border. Ukraine's geopolitical orientation is of great concern to Russia, as it wants to maintain Ukraine's pro-Russian or neutral position. To prevent Ukraine from joining the West, Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, aiming to deter its nightmare scenario. However, the conflict in Ukraine continues, and the resolution depends on changing the calculation in the Kremlin and possible enhanced US engagement.
Challenges and Implications for Ukraine
For Ukraine, the conflict with Russia poses numerous challenges. Internally, Ukraine struggles with political reforms, combating corruption, and revitalizing its economy. It relies on international support to achieve stability and independence. Geopolitically, Ukraine's orientation towards the West, especially NATO, is crucial, but also a point of contention with Russia. The conflict in Donbas has resulted in territorial disputes and made Ukraine's path to NATO membership more challenging. The situation remains uncertain, and the resolution depends on changing the calculation in the Kremlin and addressing the critical issues in Donbas and Crimea.
Russia's goal of regaining control over breakaway states
Russia's post-Soviet strategy has been to regain control over breakaway states and bring them back into its orbit. The biggest chunk is Ukraine, which holds significant historical, emotional, and strategic importance for Russia. Crimea, in particular, plays a crucial role in strengthening Russia's military position and increasing pressure on Ukraine. While the emotional attachment and perceived historical significance outweigh the geoeconomic benefits, Russia's aim is to keep Ukraine under its influence to achieve its strategic goals.
Russian military tactics in Crimea and Donbass
In Crimea, the Russian annexation involved a swift and short-lived incursion by Russian soldiers, which quickly led to the referendum and annexation. The soldiers disguised themselves as local performers but were easily identified as regular Russian troops. On the other hand, in Donbass, Russia aimed to hide the direct presence of its armed forces, using local separatists and volunteers armed by the Russian military intelligence service. The control exerted in Donbass relied more on irregular forces and complex political maneuvers. The nature of war differed in both regions, influencing the tactics employed by Russia.
Russias entire defense strategy relies on a friendly or neutral Ukraine, so when Ukraine almost turned to the west in a revolution in 2014 panic swept the Kremlin; and Russia invaded and occupied the Crimean peninsula and the Donbas region in the East. Will this war slow down to frozen conflict like in Transnistria, or will it roar back to life like in Karabakh, we ask our expert panel. This week Steven Pifer (Brookings Institute) Gustav Gressel (European Council of Foreign Relations) Thomas Graham (Yale University) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus More info at - www.theredlinepodcast.com
