Recent developments in AI are prompting a critical reassessment of safety strategies. Topics include the implications of tight timelines and the impact of the Trump presidency on AI governance. The discussion explores new paradigms like o1 computing and budget shifts in AI data centers. With mainstream discourse lacking consideration for AI risks, the episode emphasizes what safety-focused individuals should prioritize going forward. The potential effects on US-China competition are also examined, questioning traditional methods and strategies.

Crossposted from my blog. (This could end up being the most important thing I’ve ever written. Please like and restack it—if you have a big blog, please write about it). A mother holds her sick baby to her chest. She knows he doesn’t have long to live. She hears him coughing—those body-wracking coughs—that expel mucus and phlegm, leaving him desperately gasping for air. He is just a few months old. And yet that's how old he will be when he dies. The aforementioned scene is likely to become increasingly common in the coming years. Fortunately, there is still hope. Trump recently signed an executive order shutting off almost all foreign aid. Most terrifyingly, this included shutting off the PEPFAR program—the single most successful foreign aid program in my lifetime. PEPFAR provides treatment and prevention of HIV and AIDS—it has saved about 25 million people since its implementation in [...] The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI. --- First published: January 27th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BRqBvkjskZ6c2G6rn/the-upcoming-pepfar-cut-will-kill-millions-many-of-them --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

In 2023[1] GiveWell raised $355 million - $100 million from Open Philanthropy, and $255 million from other donors. In their post on 10th April 2023, GiveWell forecast the amount they expected to raise in 2023, albeit with wide confidence intervals, and stated that their 10th percentile estimate for total funds raised was $416 million, and 10th percentile estimate for funds raised outside of Open Philanthropy was $260 million. 10th percentile estimateMedian estimateAmount raisedTotal$416 million$581 million$355 millionExcluding Open Philanthropy$260 million$330 million$255 million Regarding Open Philanthropy, the April 2023 post states that they "tentatively plans to give $250 million in 2023", however Open Philanthropy gave a grant of $300 million to cover 2023-2025, to be split however GiveWell saw fit, and it used $100 million of that grant in 2023. However for other donors I'm not sure what caused the missed estimate Credit to 'Arnold' on GiveWell's December 2024 Open Thread for [...] The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: January 19th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RdbDH4T8bxWwZpc9h/givewell-raised-less-than-its-10th-percentile-forecast-in --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Note: This post was crossposted from the Open Philanthropy Farm Animal Welfare Research Newsletter by the Forum team, with the author's permission. The author may not see or respond to comments on this post. They’re imperfect agents of change The world's three largest animal welfare groups are under attack. Their antagonists are not factory farmers, but other animal groups. And the ASPCA, HSUS, and RSPCA stand accused not of hurting farmers, but of hurting animals, through their work with GAP and RSPCA Assured, which certify animal products as being less cruelly produced. The attacks began last summer when the UK animal rights group Animal Rising released a report and footage showing abuses on RSPCA Assured farms. They’ve since forced the RSPCA to cancel its 200th year celebrations, plastered portraits of RSPCA patron King Charles, and persuaded the ceremonial president and two vice-presidents of the RSPCA to resign in protest. [...] --- First published: January 24th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/np6vRZvsWgF5rq5W7/in-defense-of-the-certifiers --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

In recent years, many in the Effective Altruism community have shifted to working on AI risks, reflecting the growing consensus that AI will profoundly shape our future. In response to this significant shift, there have been efforts to preserve a "principles-first EA" approach, or to give special thought into how to support non-AI causes. This has often led to discussions being framed around "AI Safety vs. everything else". And it feels like the community is somewhat divided along the following lines: Those working on AI Safety, because they believe that transformative AI is coming. Those focusing on other causes, implicitly acting as if transformative AI is not coming.[1] Instead of framing priorities this way, I believe it would be valuable for more people to adopt a mindset that assumes transformative AI is likely coming and asks: What should we work on in light of that? If we [...] The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: January 22nd, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/psNGNSoJpXRodmDSg/preparing-effective-altruism-for-an-ai-transformed-world --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This post is my personal perspective. I’m sure that my colleagues on the Forum Team and at CEA disagree with parts of this. However, since I am the Interim EA Forum Project Lead, I recognize that my opinions and beliefs carry extra weight. I’m very happy to receive feedback and push back from others, since I believe that my decisions matter a fair amount. You’re welcome to reply to this post, DM me, find me at EAG Bay Area, contact our team, or leave our team anonymous feedback here. When I took the role of Interim EA Forum Project Lead in late August 2024, I spent some time investigating where the Forum was at and thinking about what (if anything) our team should prioritize working on. Over the course of 2024 (and indeed, since early 2023), Forum usage metrics have steadily gone down[1]. My subjective opinion was that the [...] ---Outline:(01:21) The Forum Team as community builders(05:41) What does the best version of the Forum community  look like?(07:23) We're not there yet(09:50) What is the Forum Team doing?(12:01) What are we not doing?(13:00) How you can help(14:31) Appendix: The value of the ForumThe original text contained 27 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI. --- First published: January 13th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wpDGEXjAtHJa2eCFA/what-are-we-doing-about-the-ea-forum-jan-2025 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

As 2024 draws to a close, I’m reflecting on the work and stories that inspired me this year: those from the effective altruism community, those I found out about through EA-related channels, and those otherwise related to EA. I’ve appreciated the celebration of wins and successes over the past few years from @Shakeel Hashim's posts in 2022 and 2023. As @Lizka and @MaxDalton put very well in a post in 2022: We often have high standards in effective altruism. This seems absolutely right: our work matters, so we must constantly strive to do better. But we think that it's really important that the effective altruism community celebrate successes: If we focus too much on failures, we incentivize others/ourselves to minimize the risk of failure, and we will probably be too risk averse. We're humans: we're more motivated if we celebrate things that have gone well. Rather than attempting [...] ---Outline:(01:54) What progress in the world did you find exciting?(03:14) What individual stories inspired you?(04:29) What popular media or articles did you appreciate?(05:40) What writing from this year did you appreciate or find compelling?(06:19) What made you grateful or excited to be involved in or related to effective altruism?The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI. --- First published: December 31st, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SkfMyerJ5bGK7scnW/what-i-m-celebrating-from-ea-and-adjacent-work-in-2024 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Until recently I thought Julia and I were digging a bit into savings to donate more. With the tighter funding climate for effective altruism we thought it was worth spending down a bit, especially considering that our expenses should decrease significantly in 1.5y when our youngest starts kindergarten. I was surprised, then, when I ran the numbers and realized that despite donating 50% of a reduced income, we were $9k (0.5%) [1] richer than when I left Google two years earlier. This is a good problem to have! After thinking it over for the last month, however, I've decided to start earning less: I've asked for a voluntary salary reduction of $15k/y (10%). [2] This is something I've been thinking about off and on since I started working at a non-profit: it's much more efficient to reduce your salary than it is to make a donation. [...] --- First published: January 15th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3TLTrJS2DZJ5mcrkc/voluntary-salary-reduction --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

It's time once again for EA Forum Wrapped 🎁, a summary of how you used the Forum in 2024 [1].Open your EA Forum Wrapped Thank you for being a part of our community this year! :)^ You can also view your stats from 2023 and 2022. The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI. --- First published: January 3rd, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Xem5o4iRHMSduNcPu/your-2024-ea-forum-wrapped --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Cross-posted from Otherwise. Most EAs won't find these arguments new. Last month, Emma Goldberg wrote a NYT piece contrasting effective altruism with approaches that refuse to quantify meaningful experiences. The piece indicates that effective altruism is creepily numbers-focused. Goldberg asks “what if charity shouldn’t be optimized?” The egalitarian answer Dylan Matthews gives a try at answering a question in the piece: “How can anyone put a numerical value on a holy space” like Notre Dame cathedral? For the $760 million spent restoring the cathedral, he estimates you could prevent 47,500 deaths from malaria. “47,500 people is about five times the population of the town I grew up in. . . . It's useful to imagine walking down Main Street, stopping at each table at the diner Lou's, shaking hands with as many people as you can, and telling them, ‘I think you need to die to make a cathedral [...] ---Outline:(00:29) The egalitarian answer(01:16) Who prefers magnificence?(03:10) Inequality has its benefits(04:34) Is there enough for everybody to have access to the finer things?(05:37) The balance of good and bad(06:33) Both sides have ugly aspects(07:04) These aren't the only choices(08:58) Related:The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration. The original text contained 2 images which were described by AI. --- First published: January 13th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TiFeCBxKj79bohoDY/the-ugly-sides-of-two-approaches-to-charity --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.