Stop the World

What a week! And some of it was actually good news! Justin and Dave pull apart the latest events, starting with PM Anthony Albanese’s all-consuming meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House. After all the jangled nerves, it went rather well, but what does the critical minerals deal mean in geopolitical terms? Is AUKUS really safe? And just what did Navy Secretary John Phelan mean about clarifying ambiguities in the trilateral agreement? Justin and Dave discuss Trump’s confidence that Chinese leader Xi Jinping won’t move against Taiwan any time soon, the upcoming meeting between the two leaders on the side of APEC in Seoul, and the much-welcomed new sanctions an increasingly impatient Trump has slapped on an infuriatingly recalcitrant Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Finally, they discuss Dave’s favourite story of the week: an open letter calling for a pause on the development of superintelligent AI, the pros and cons of the movement, and the surprising signatories.

In today’s episode, Natalia Solieva, former spokesperson at Ukraine’s Embassy in Washington and an expert on Russian information operations, analyses Moscow’s wartime gaslighting (and not in the sense of its dwindling energy exports to Europe.)Natalia, now a resident in the United States, has studied extensively the battle of narratives over Moscow’s war against Ukraine. She explains the Ukrainian people’s hard-earned resilience to Russian disinformation, the weapons of influence Moscow has deployed against the US, the reassuring levels of American public support for Ukraine, Russia’s use of cognitive warfare and its attempts to intimidate Europe, the precarious state of the global information environment and the best ways to defend against disinformation.Natalia also shares with us her favourite Winston Churchill quote.

Though it’s on the opposite side of the world, Europe is vital to Australia’s security, not just because of our shared values but also because of the continent’s role in supporting Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s aggression—arguably the test case for future global order. Today, senior European Union diplomat Paola Pampaloni tells Stop the World about progress on the EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy amid rapid shifts in geopolitics.Paola, who is the EU’s Special Envoy for the Indo-Pacific and Acting Managing Director of the European External Action Service for the Asia-Pacific, talks about the proposed Australia-EU defence and security agreement, difficulties with the free trade agreement and the strategic importance of rules-based trade. She discusses cooperation in strategic sectors such as critical minerals, the risks of dependency on China and the broader question of economic security.She addresses the reality that China is enabling Russia’s war against Ukraine, and also covers Taiwan, EU defence spending, the authoritarian axis, the US under Donald Trump and technology cooperation with the Indo-Pacific.

Is artificial intelligence a “normal” technology like electrification, computing and the internet, or is it a new entity unlike anything we’ve ever created? The question makes all the difference to how we approach AI policy.Today on Stop the World, David Wroe speaks to Alice Friend, the Global Head of AI and Emerging Tech Policy at Google. They tackle the big questions including the nature of AI, the meaning of “general” versus narrow intelligence, the role of embodiment and agency in the real world,  the best ways to encourage adoption and integration, and the best approaches to regulation so that countries—and the world—can reap the economic benefits while reducing the safety and security risks. They discuss how the technology is evolving, how it might diffuse through economies and societies, the importance of rules and standards, what it means to “win or lose” the global AI race and what might happen if or when we achieve artificial general intelligence. It’s a healthy discussion and debate on what AI means for humanity.

For some, Greenland might have only entered their consciousness when US President Trump offered to buy it. But there’s much more to the story, even beyond its history with the United States. In today’s episode, Liz Buchanan gives Stop the World listeners a useful crash course on Greenland, from the mysterious disappearance of the Vikings in the 1400s, to Greenland’s pivotal role in World War II and the Cold War, and its continued – and increasing – strategic importance today.Liz covers everything from Arctic shipping routes and how they impact Australia despite our geographical distance, Greenland’s ideal positioning for prospective polar space launches, to the Cold War's “Project Iceworm”, a US-built underground ice city complete with a barber shop and bowling alley.As Liz explains, Greenland is far from an Arctic afterthought, and if you’ve only ever considered it as a desolate blob on top of the Mercator map, this episode will be sure to change that.Images used in this episode are credited to So You Want to Own Greenland? Lessons from the Vikings to Trump by Elizabeth Buchanan.Find Elizabeth’s book here https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/so-you-want-to-own-greenland/.

The Indo-Pacific is a strategic theatre named after two oceans, but according to retired US four-star general Charles Flynn, land forces would be crucial in any conflict, including over Taiwan. In today’s episode, David Wroe speaks with Charles, who retired last year as commanding general of the US Army Pacific, about the often misunderstood and overlooked importance of land power. They consider scenarios including a Chinese full-scale invasion of Taiwan and the crucial hard power that only armies could deliver in such a conflict. Charles, who is also a senior advisor at Palantir explains the technology lessons that China and North Korea are learning from Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the challenges for large organisations including militaries to reorientate themselves around new and transformative technologies. And to those worried about US reliability in the Indo-Pacific, he has a message: don’t panic. Editor’s Note: In the introduction, Olivia mentions that ASPI last hosted General Flynn in 2021. ASPI hosted him in February 2022.

Senator James Paterson, Shadow Finance Minister and Liberal Senator for Victoria since 2016, dives into Australia's strategic future. He discusses the pressing threats from authoritarian powers and the necessity of increased defence spending. Paterson highlights the importance of technology, especially AI, in boosting economic competitiveness while warning against foreign-controlled platforms like TikTok. He advocates for balancing reliance on U.S. alliances with fostering self-reliance and prioritizing policies that inspire hope in younger generations.

In this special episode of Stop the World, David Wroe speaks with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the Belarusian democracy advocate who leads a government-elect from exile. After dictator Alexander Lukashenka declared himself winner of the 2020 election despite sweeping evidence that the people had chosen Sviatlana, 1.5 million Belarusians took to the streets, sparking a brutal crackdown and Sviatlana’s deportation to neighbouring Lithuania.  Sviatlana says that the fight for freedom has made her more human, that it’s “not just about politics—it's about love. It's about dedication. It’s a fight not only for your family, but for your country.” She tells the story of how 2020 unfolded, the nature of the regime and its repression, Lukashenka’s deep dependence on Vladimir Putin—and the price that Putin extracts—the importance of Ukraine’s liberation, the role of the United States and the security of Europe. She also shares her own story, including the five-year imprisonment of her husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, an activist and blogger whom she replaced at the last moment as a 2020 candidate after Siarhei was abruptly detained on trumped-up charges. As the interview took place, news was breaking that Poland was forced to shoot down several Russian drones, at least some of which came from Belarus—a reminder of what’s at stake in both Belarus’ and Ukraine’s fights for freedom.

History is littered with missed calls and downright bad predictions. Think Arab Spring, the post-2003 occupation of Iraq, the Sino-Soviet split, the fall of the USSR, Operation Barbarossa and the assumption that engagement with China would mean liberalisation.Futurist Florence Gaub’s job is to help NATO make sure it isn’t caught like a deer in headlights when events take an unexpected turn.In today’s episode, Florence, who directs the research division at the NATO Defense College, explains how she and her team consider the “what if” events that could throw NATO’s strategic plans into disarray. She talks about the science of forecasting, the enormous complexity of geopolitics, the value of being prepared, and communicating with decision-makers.Florence reflects on forecasts that have proven useful, the value of science fiction in forecasting, the role of powerful individuals in history, major trends shaping the world today, and the value of diverse cultures, personalities and perspectives in a forecasting team.

This week, Australia made international headlines when it revealed Iran had directed at least two antisemitic attacks in Australia using local criminals as proxies. In response, the Australian Government expelled Iran’s Ambassador, the first time we have done so since World War Two. While this sort of activity is new for Australia, it fits a growing pattern in Europe where Russia and to some extent Iran have been using this tactic of hiring what are in effect gig workers to carry out such sabotage operations against other countries. To discuss hybrid threat activities and explain this tactic of using disposable agents, David Wroe speaks to Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. Elisabeth details the methods of sabotage, the purposes of sabotage to interfere in other countries and their politics and the enabling role of technology in these activities.