Stop the World

Donald Trump met with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, then with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, then with a posse of European leaders who joined Zelenskyy as back up. Everyone was polite to one another, but as Russia expert Mark Galeotti reminds us on today’s episode, there were a lot of questions left unanswered.Mark, who hosts the popular podcast, In Moscow’s Shadows, says the best thing about the string of meetings over recent days was that it might kick start the hard work of proper, behind-the-scenes detailed negotiations, without which meetings of leaders aren’t going to advance the peace process. He talks through all the key issues, including the talk of a temporary ceasefire, the difficulties of security guarantees—particularly a European “coalition of the willing” with boots on the ground—the prospects for further sanctions on Russia, Russia’s broader intentions towards Europe, Putin’s own challenges at home, and the need ultimately for Ukraine to build up its own defence industrial base, and sustain a long-term military force that can protect the nation without massive international support.Mark is the author of Putin’s Wars, The Weaponisation of Everything, We Need To Talk About Putin and his latest book, Homo Criminalis: How Crime Organises the World.

Discover how Kim Jong-un navigates global politics, striking deals with Putin while maintaining his grip on power. Anna Fifield reveals North Korea's unique two-track economy, where elite prosperity contrasts sharply with the citizens' struggles. Explore the implications of Kim's daughter’s potential succession and the complexities of North Korea's relationships with China and Russia. Learn why denuclearization is off the table and how the regime's glossy facade masks harsh realities for the populace.

Britain’s 2018 “fusion doctrine” was an effort to bring together the elements of national power to enhance the country’s security and strategic interests under the post-Brexit “global Britain”.  Its architect, Lord Mark Sedwill, is today’s guest. He assesses the key global trends, challenges and crises—Donald Trump’s second administration; Chinese assertiveness; Russia’s war on Ukraine and the unfolding tragedy in Gaza—and talks about what a fusion doctrine might look like for 2025, including the dynamic elements of rapid technology advances and turmoil in international trade. Mark held the dual roles of national security adviser and cabinet secretary—or the head of the UK civil service—under Prime Ministers Theresa May and Boris Johnson. He’s previously served as UK ambassador to Afghanistan, the NATO senior civilian representative in Afghanistan and the head of the Home Office. He’s now a Member of the UK House of Lords and chair of the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Jocelinn Kang, ASPI's Resident Technical Specialist, dives into the complex world of hyperscale cloud computing and its strategic implications for countries. She discusses the tension between data sovereignty and reliance on major tech firms like Microsoft and Google. What happens if data centers are targeted or undersea cables are severed? The conversation highlights Asia's unique approaches to cloud adoption and the critical need for local innovation to ensure resilience. Jocelinn emphasizes collaboration and the challenges of integrating AI amidst these security concerns.

Today we speak with China military scholar Elsa B. Kania about China’s military modernisation. How good is the People’s Liberation Army? Where has it progressed? Where is it still deficient? And the big ones: can it match the US and how ready is it to take Taiwan by force if Xi Jinping gives the order?Much of Elsa’s recent work has focussed on the role of technology in the PLA’s capabilities, doctrine and command structure. She talks about the role of artificial intelligence, the concepts of informatisation and intelligentisation, and the Chinese view of the ethics of automating lethal force. She also talks about China’s military rehearsals around Taiwan, its concept of “peace disease”, and China’s overall strategy with its growing military assertiveness.Elsa is a PhD candidate in Harvard University's Department of Government, where she’s just recently defended her dissertation, "China's Command Revolution." Her research focuses on China's military strategy, defense innovation, and emerging capabilities. She is an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Center for a New American Security's Technology and National Security Program, and she was also a Fulbright Specialist and Non-Resident Fellow with the International Cyber Policy Centre at ASPI.

Julia Ebner is a leading researcher in the area of extremism, radicalisation and conspiracy theories. She’s spent time undercover among incels, anti-vaxxers and neo-nazis, and combines this brave reportage with a deep understanding of politics.In today’s episode, Julia explains the unsettling trend of kooky and dangerous ideas making their way into the political mainstream, as fringe ideas are repackaged as successful populist weapons. She talks about conspiracy theories such as QAnon, the idea of “identity fusion” which brings together people with a wide range of anti-establishment grievances, the psychology behind conspiracy myths, the anxieties that modern society creates, and the state of US politics.Finally she talks solutions, promoting four elegant principles of “critical thinking, lateral reading, self awareness and emotional intelligence” — a useful lesson for us all.

Bethany Allen explains her investigation into a British university’s joint venture campus in China and the risks of critical tech collaboration. Recently an ASPI team led by our head of China investigations and analysis Bethany Allen published a report on a joint venture university campus between Xi’an Jiaotong University in China and Liverpool University in Britain. Their findings raise serious questions about research collaboration into sensitive technologies, including those with military applications.  In today’s episode, Bethany talks through the findings, including the joint university’s partnerships and close links with entities sanctioned by Britain, the US, the EU and other nations for supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and helping with China’s military modernisation. She explains the risks that these partnerships create, how widespread they might be, and what more needs to be done by universities themselves by way of due diligence into their partnerships, but also the need for governments to set clearer rules and guidelines about what defines unacceptable risk. Read the article A British university’s technology entanglements with Russia and China, by Bethany Allen, Danielle Cave and Adam Ziogas.

Executive director Justin Bassi and resident senior fellow David Wroe discuss issues of the week, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit to China, US President Donald Trump’s overdue but welcome change of heart on support for Ukraine, and the clashes in Syria that prompted Israel to intervene on behalf of the Druze population and strike Syrian targets including in Damascus.They talk about risks that Australia becomes once again vulnerable to economic coercion despite lessons from the recent past, and that we send Beijing the signal that we are prioritising short-term economics over security. They discuss their tentative hopes that Trump might hold to his changed position that Russia finally needs to be pressured to come to the peace table. And they unpack their views on the complex flareup in southern Syria during the week that has reportedly left hundreds dead.

This week on Stop the World, we were delighted to host Sir Stephen Lovegrove, the UK Prime Minister’s special representative on AUKUS. Dave speaks to Sir Stephen about the UK and US reviews of AUKUS, what success looks like for pillars one and two and where we need to move more quickly, including focusing on specific capabilities in pillar two.It’s a frank conversation and Sir Stephen conveys a vigilant confidence that AUKUS is on a good track provided it gets the attention and nurturing that it deserves. He describes AUKUS as the most monumental strategic partnership in decades and, although it will evolve over time,  with commitment from all three countries, the partnership will succeed.

For a brief spell after the Cold War, the idea of an international community that would coordinate and intervene in conflicts for the global good felt like an aspiration on the move. It feels distant today, but all is not lost. Comfort Ero, the President and CEO of the International Crisis Group, gives us her take on the toughest conflicts plaguing humanity in recent times. Rather than feeling dispirited and paralysed by dysfunction at the global level, we should concentrate on tackling each crisis with the tools available and making a difference one step at a time, whatever it takes. It’s a tough but ultimately inspiring message as Comfort talks about some of the conflicts that rarely trouble the front pages—Sudan, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo—as well as the bigger picture amid the collapse of the rules-based order. Practicality and pragmatism, not magic multilateral wands, are what organisations like the Crisis Group have to work with.