All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions

Investment advice is everywhere, but how do you determine what's credible? The hosts dissect internet stock picks, revealing potential red flags like pump-and-dump schemes. They explain why genuine stock pickers often work in funds rather than message boards. The importance of sound financial advice, particularly in areas like diversification and tax planning, is emphasized. The discussion also covers private investment risks, the need for skilled manager selection, and why retail investors should focus on broad diversification instead of chasing trendy stock picks.

Jeff Hawkins, a renowned neuroscientist and computer scientist, dives into the fascinating distinctions between human brains and AI systems. He explains how the brain functions as a predictive learning system, contrasting it with AI's rely on rigid data models. Hawkins introduces a new, brain-like AI approach that promises efficiencies and fewer errors. He discusses AI's potential societal impact, predicting it will augment rather than replace human jobs, while emphasizing the enduring value of uniquely human skills like creativity and adaptability.

Bryan Caplan, an economist and author of "The Case Against Education," argues that modern higher education mainly serves as a labor-market signal rather than fosters essential job skills. He discusses how most college curricula lack real-world relevance and critiques the emphasis on liberal arts, which caters to a select few. Caplan suggests shifting focus to apprenticeships and on-the-job training as more effective learning methods. The conversation also explores the 'sheepskin effect' and how critical thinking may often stem from selection rather than education itself.

In this discussion, Veronica Rappoport, an Associate Professor at the London School of Economics and former Deputy Governor of Argentina's Central Bank, shares her insights on Argentina's historic inflation crisis. She emphasizes that price caps have exacerbated inflation rather than alleviating it, and debunks myths surrounding them. Rappoport also explores the role of fiscal deficits and government interventions, drawing lessons for countries like the U.S. This candid conversation highlights the complexities of inflation and the need for sustainable economic strategies.

Ludovic Phalippou, a Professor of Financial Economics at Oxford and author of 'Private Equity Laid Bare', delves into the rise of private equity and its allure for investors. He discusses the complexities of monitoring investments in private markets and the vital role of oversight. The conversation examines the tricky nature of measuring performance between private and public markets, as well as the influence of mega asset owners since the 2000s. Phalippou also highlights the importance of choosing appropriate benchmarks for assessing private equity returns.

In this insightful discussion, John Cochrane, a Senior Fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, breaks down the complex realities of trade deficits. He challenges the prevailing narrative that blames these deficits for economic woes and rebrands them as capital surpluses. The conversation dives into how trade deficits intertwine with investment patterns and the impact of tariffs, advocating for free trade as a catalyst for growth. Cochrane also addresses the broader implications for inflation and international relations, urging listeners to think critically about current trade policies.

For the summer season, All Else Equal will be alternating between new episodes and reruns. In this week’s episode, we’re revisiting our conversation with Ford Foundation Professor of International Political Economy at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, and the author of the book Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy, Dani Rodrik.With President Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, and other countries now in full swing, what consequences from an economic standpoint could the U.S. be facing? And what was the path that led us here? Hosts and finance professors Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen put the tariffs question to economist and author Dani Rodrik. Rodrik is  the Ford Foundation Professor of International Political Economy at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, and the author of the book Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy. Beginning with the historical context and purpose of tariffs, the conversation covers how the political and social dissatisfaction with hyperglobalization opened the door for these extreme tariffs, whether or not they’re an effective tool in modern trade policy, and what alternative strategies exist to rebuild America’s middle class.  Find All Else Equal on the web: https://lauder.wharton.upenn.edu/in-the-news/all-else-equal/All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Podcast is a production of the UPenn Wharton Lauder Institute through University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Madhav Rajan, Dean of the Booth School of Business, brings a wealth of experience from Stanford and Wharton. He discusses the decline of traditional full-time MBA programs as students seek more flexible options. The conversation shifts to the evolving MBA curriculum, emphasizing practical skills over technical finance. Rajan also explores the innovative modular MBA concepts and the increasing importance of networking within MBA programs, highlighting how these factors influence fundraising and career opportunities in today's job market.

Victor Davis Hanson, Emeritus Professor of Classics, delves into the rise and fall of great societies. He discusses how prosperity can breed complacency and vulnerability, drawing parallels between historical civilizations and modern challenges. The conversation highlights the psychological impacts of perceived stagnation despite advancements, and critiques our societal obsessions with mortality and existential threats. Through historical lenses, they explore how understanding the past can illuminate our present dilemmas and future prospects.

In this conversation with Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens College at Cambridge and chief economic advisor at Allianz, the issues surrounding U.S. national debt are dissected. They explore the alarming current debt of $34 trillion and its historical context. El-Erian critiques traditional debt metrics, advocating for a broader view of fiscal sustainability. The discussion also dives into the impact of demographics and technology on economic growth, addressing both challenges and opportunities for the future. A fresh perspective on inflation trends rounds out the insightful dialogue.