All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions Ep68 “Is It Better to Overestimate or Underestimate Your Enemies?” with H.R. McMaster
Nov 12, 2025
H.R. McMaster, a former U.S. National Security Advisor and military strategist, shares his insights on U.S. intelligence errors. He discusses how the U.S. often overestimates enemy capabilities, drawing on historical misjudgments and the complexities of modern proxy warfare. McMaster highlights the need for a balanced view of threats, especially concerning China and Iran. He also explores the impact of information warfare and the challenges of understanding authoritarian regimes, emphasizing the importance of critical assessment in intelligence.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Asymmetric Incentives Skew Threat Estimates
- Intelligence often overestimates enemies because analysts face asymmetric career incentives to avoid underestimation.
- Jonathan Berk argues this bias persists since overestimation carries fewer personal costs than underestimation.
Count Vs. Combat Effectiveness
- H.R. McMaster says intelligence units count weapons well but miss combat effectiveness and context.
- He urges commanders to place intelligence in an operational perspective comparing enemy and own capabilities.
Overestimation Can Encourage Passive Policy
- Overestimating a weak enemy can prevent seizing initiative and allowing proxies to inflict sustained harm.
- McMaster uses Iran's proxy campaign as an example where perceived strength led to insufficient response.
