Lead-Lag Live

Ready to get a clear perspective on the economic landscape, especially the outlook for treasuries and credit markets? Our guest, Jared Dillian, joins us for a deep and informative discussion on the potential repercussions of government interventions on private borrowing and the unusual tightness of credit spreads. We also dissect the bearish and bullish predictions concerning the possibility of a recession. The conversation doesn't stop there. Get ready to rethink your understanding of the stock market's performance as we reveal how a handful of tech stocks have heavily influenced the S&P 500. We delve into likely trends in work hours, productivity, and effort that could lead to stagnant or 1% GDP growth. Similarly, we discuss the potential for real debt and austerity progress within the next three years and the necessity of a crisis for substantial transformation to occur. Plus, we unpack the potential fallout from a treasury crash - a corporate credit risk blowout or a stock market crash, anyone?To wrap up, we take a closer look at cyclical tax regimes and consider how changes in tax rates could impact the economy overall. Is another banking crisis possible? And how is Jared, our financial guru, navigating these uncertain times with his own portfolio? We even take a moment to examine the current economic situation, including the perils of student loans and the implications of inflation. Don't miss out on our examination of Jared's Awesome Portfolio and his insights on applying it to the prevailing economic climate. Tune in to have all your pressing questions answered.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Start your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

Are you prepared for the seismic shifts that could reshape your financial portfolio? Guest Tavi Costa of Craskin Capital offers his expert perspective. Armed with a bearish outlook on financial assets and the treasury market, Tavi unpacks the shockwaves of the recent rate hike, the unexpected speed and magnitude of the sell-off, and the need for a thorough restructuring of investment portfolios. He also provides valuable insights on capitalizing on cheap volatility and prophesizes the potential aftermath of the fastest rate hike cycle in history.Probing further, we unravel Tavi's fears about fiscal stimulus, inflation, and the potential impact on financial markets. He casts a critical eye on the high levels of government spending against the backdrop of low tax revenues and how the economy is shackled to this spending pattern. The discussion takes a deeper dive into the Federal Reserve's predicament of plummeting demand for Federal debt and treasuries, and how this downward spiral could instigate more inflationary policies. Also, we scratch beneath the surface of the commodity cycle, deflation pulses, and the volatility-induced uncertainty around discount rates.We also chart a course for investing in Brazil's emerging markets, uncovering the role of the commodity cycle and its potential to ignite a significant shift. Tavi elucidates the distinct economic landscapes of the BRICS nations, underscoring the need for analysts and investors to prioritize profitability over mere growth. We touch on the influence of AI on emerging markets, and explore the potential of capital inflows into Brazilian markets. As we conclude, we also dissect the challenges posed to mega-cap stocks and the AI market by inflation and interest rates. Tune in for an episode teeming with expert insight, market forecasts, and invaluable investment advice.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitatioStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

Financial market and macro forecasting consultant, David Rosenberg, sheds light on the profound impact of interest rates on long-duration assets, the bond market, and the Federal Reserve's reaction. He discusses the surprising moves of the Federal Reserve in the market, explores the potential ramifications of an increased cost of capital on the corporate sector, and contemplates a credit event due to debt rollover. David also examines global economic influences such as real estate on regional banks, Japan as a source of credit stress, China's slowdown and debt, the strength of the US dollar, and Germany's trading partners.

The podcast features Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, discussing the rapid surge in mortgage rates and its impact on the US housing market. Topics covered include the historic volatility in rates, its effect on home sales and consumer debts, and a comparative study with the 1980s. The podcast also delves into demographic dynamics, the lock-in effect of mortgage rates, reduced homebuilding activity, and the nationwide housing shortage. It concludes by exploring the influence of second homes, vacant housing, short-term rentals, and remote work on the housing market's future.

Join analyst Amy Nixon as we explore the rise of passive income investments like Airbnb, the inflationary nature of administrative policies, the potential credit event and recession implications, the role of homebuilders in the real estate game, and the potential distress and foreclosure sales in the rental property market.

What would it mean for you to navigate the murky waters of the Federal Reserve's rapid tightening of monetary policy like a seasoned trader? Imagine the feeling of control as you grasp the interplay of intermarket relationships and lending standards to assess the unpredictability of a new bull market. Join us alongside Doug Moglia, a leading voice from Game of Trades, as we dissect these complexities and explore the implications for banks as they tighten their lending standards against a backdrop of a faltering economy.Feel the pulse of the market as we venture into the world of volatility and the subtle nuances of trading. With Doug guiding us, we unpack the significance of the VIX for hedging and the potential influence of zero DTE volume trading on intraday market movements. We dare to question the possibility of a 2021 recession and its depth, scrutinizing the wealth effect of stocks and housing prices. We examine the potential impact of inflation on company earnings and ponder on the investment value of precious metals during a recession.As we move through the storm, we look for beacons to guide us to safer and potentially lucrative investment shores. We investigate potential indicators of when to venture into riskier market areas during a recession, considering credit spreads, energy weightings, and the influence of the US dollar on international equities. Doug suggests an unexpected potential investment in Turkish stocks due to a policy shift combating inflation. As we wrap up, find out how to stay connected with Game of Trades beyond this conversation. Listen in, learn, and evolve your trading strategy with us.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all inStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

Erik Smolinski, an expert in bonds, options, and market trends, delves into the fascinating world of bonds, options, and how Twitter's Spaces platform is shaping up. They explore the potential 'end of the world' scenario as the bull case for stocks. They also discuss the rising speed of treasury yields, the correlation between stocks and treasuries, and the potential impact of the looming pension refinancing crisis on the stock market. They analyze options pricing, overvaluation, the dollar's impact on the market, using options for trading earnings, and volatility products.

Will the market crash? How are inflation, AI mania, and reshoring in America shaping our financial future? These are just a few of the complex dynamics that we tackle with our guest, Herb Greenberg. Herb, a seasoned financial analyst, helps us make sense of the increasing market red flags and the potential looming recession. With his unique perspective, we traverse the effects of inflation on everyday activities and the consequent implications for certain companies. Venturing into the world of stocks, we dissect the concept of stock avoidance and the frenzy around AI in the market. We delve into the idea of long-term investing as a viable alternative to short-term trading, and the opportunities that bear markets present for identifying stocks to avoid. We also shine a light on the potential of reshoring in America, a potential economic boon that's often overlooked. Lastly, we address the elephant in the room - the media. From its impact on market caps to the influence of social media on algorithms and the global market, we lay it all bare. We ponder the potential of a deceptive lost decade caused by our current market structure and discuss the often underappreciated role of management quality in investment decisions. With Herb sharing his experience as a CNBC contributor, we also delve into the need for maintaining a respectful tone during interviews. Join us in this enlightening conversation - a treasure trove of valuable insights for anyone invested in the future of finance.ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Start your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

Get ready to explore the nooks and crannies of the fascinating world of artificial intelligence with our esteemed guest, Paul Scharre. With an impressive background across the US Army, the Pentagon and as an author, Paul navigates us through the intricate terrain of autonomous weapons. This episode takes you on a journey across the multifaceted layers of AI, from its integration into warfare to its disruptive impact across various sectors. Be prepared to have your horizons broadened as we delve deep into the technical, legal, ethical, and political questions that AI brings up.Have you ever wondered how AI is influencing the race for technological supremacy? Or perhaps, how businesses need to gear up to stay relevant? Our conversation with Paul unravels these complex issues, touching upon the data and hardware requirements for training large AI models and how the media plays a significant role in shaping AI demand. You'll hear pointers on how certain professions could gain a disproportionate advantage from AI. Not just that, we also address the public's perception of AI, its landscape, and the implications of AI regulation in the US and China.Finally, we shift our focus to some of the pressing concerns surrounding AI proliferation and potential fraud. Amidst the challenges of verifying identities in an era where AI can mimic human interaction, we discuss how current authentication methods might need to evolve. Paul offers his insights into the readiness of local law enforcement to handle these potential issues. This episode is a goldmine of information for anyone intrigued by the future of AI in jobs, power, and public perception. Trust us, you won't want to miss this one!ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

Think you know the ripple effects of Japan's Quantitative Easing experiment on global markets? Test your knowledge as we engage in an in-depth conversation with the renowned financial expert, Danny Moses. Our discussion not only shines a light on his illustrious career journey but also dissects the effects of Japan's QE measures on the global arena, particularly focusing on U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. government.Feel the pulse of the market as we navigate through the widening credit spreads, revealing the stark divide between the haves and have-nots in the corporate credit market. This episode navigates the often-underestimated role of leverage and its potential risks in a landscape of rising interest rates. We also dissect the impact of high levels of floating rate debt, the financialization of the economy, and the withdrawal of bank lending, all of which are key aspects shaping the U.S. consumer's financial scenario.Last but not least, join us as we explore the possibilities and conjecture surrounding the classification of cannabis as a Schedule 1 drug. We take you through the potential catalysts that could bring about this change. Listen in for Danny's unique insights on portfolio allocation and market trends, as we deep-dive into his strategic positioning for various scenarios. This episode promises to be an enlightening journey for anyone interested in the global market dynamics, offering expert insights from the one and only, Danny Moses. Don't miss out!ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at https://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive and get 30% off as a podcast listener.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Start your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show