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Lead-Lag Live

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Aug 11, 2024 • 44min

Axel Merk on Market Crisis Signals, Federal Reserve Dynamics, and Gold's Strategic Role in Diverse Portfolios

What if today's market turbulence signals the onset of another financial crisis akin to 1987, 1998, or 2008? Join me, Michael Gayed, Publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, as I engage in a profound discussion with Axel Merk, an authority in the gold industry. We dissect current market conditions, compare them with past crises, and uncover the diverse profiles of gold investors—from dollar skeptics to diversification seekers. Axel underscores the necessity of a well-rounded investment toolkit to navigate the unpredictability of financial markets, urging you to expand your comfort zone and prepare for the future.Unravel the intricate relationship between Federal Reserve policies and market narratives in our compelling conversation. We scrutinize the Fed's prioritization of systemic risk over stock market valuations, the complexities of forecasting economic recessions, and the crucial role of credit spreads. Delving into the significance of timely yet limited jobs reports and the rapid shifts driven by media, Axel and I explore the unique market dynamics during slower summer months and the inherent challenges of economic predictions in a tightening monetary landscape.Expand your global perspective as we analyze Japan's precarious financial situation and its potential worldwide impact, including rising borrowing costs and fiscal hurdles. We explore China's strategic gold purchases amid sanctions, the ramifications of increasing credit card delinquencies, and the evolving global economic landscape influenced by China's ascent. Reflecting on skepticism in investment trends and the enduring value of gold in diverse portfolios, I invite you to follow my live insights on Twitter for real-time financial market updates.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Today's sponsor is CBDX, home of premium, legal THC gummies. Perfect for relaxation, creativity, or unwinding after a long day, these delicious gummies deliver the quality you can trust. With fast discreet shipping and great flavors, CBDX makes enjoying THC easy and hassle-free.Visit CBDX.com and use code LEADLAG to save on your first order!  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show
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Aug 9, 2024 • 56min

Weston Nakamura on Yen Carry Trade Risks, Japan's Currency Interventions, and Global Market Implications

Unlock the secrets of the global margin call and understand why the yen's strength could be a critical point of failure in finance with macro researcher Weston Nakamura. In this fascinating episode, we uncover the latest developments in the yen carry trade and its ripple effects on markets like the NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Nakamura provides a deep dive into the Japan Ministry of Finance's interventions and their knock-on effects, drawing intriguing parallels with the post-1990s bubble burst era in Japan.We also revisit the infamous 2008 financial crisis through the lens of the carry trade, particularly focusing on the AUD/JPY currency pair and its significant role in market volatility. Listen as we dissect the monetary policy mismatches between Japan and other global economies, and how geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices are adding layers of complexity to Japan's economic landscape. Nakamura explains the profound impact of these dynamics on the Japanese yen and the broader economy, especially given Japan's dependency on imported oil and the socio-political ramifications of rising energy costs.In the latter part of the episode, we explore the unique investment behaviors of Japanese NISA account holders and their growing interest in U.S. equities amidst a depreciating yen. Discover how this shift is influencing global equity markets, particularly the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, and consider the potential for a reverse carry trade scenario. We also discuss the broader market trends driven by systematic and CTA flows, and what the future holds for Japan's interest rate policies under the Bank of Japan. This episode is packed with expert insights and analyses that will keep you well-informed on the shifting tides of global markets.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Today's sponsor is CBDX, home of premium, legal THC gummies. Perfect for relaxation, creativity, or unwinding after a long day, these delicious gummies deliver the quality you can trust. With fast discreet shipping and great flavors, CBDX makes enjoying THC easy and hassle-free.Visit CBDX.com and use code LEADLAG to save on your first order!  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show
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Aug 8, 2024 • 46min

Tavi Costa on Dollar Bearishness, Mining Investment Opportunities, and AI’s Dual Inflationary Effects

Ever wondered how Japan's delayed rate hikes or the U.S.'s soaring interest payments relative to GDP could reshape global markets? Get ready for a deep dive with Tavi Costa from Crescat Capital as we untangle the intricate web of current macroeconomic trends. Discover why Tavi holds a bearish outlook on the dollar and what that means for fiat currencies, as well as his perspectives on the dramatic positioning in mega caps and the unpredictable behavior of equity markets amidst recent turmoil.Moving into the metals and mining industry, Tavi offers a goldmine of opportunities, literally. We discuss the concept of fiscal exceptionalism, the undervaluation of mining assets, and why private mining deals could be a jackpot for savvy investors. Tavi reveals how inefficiencies and conservative gold price assumptions create fertile ground for significant returns, especially through leveraged buyouts and strategic investments. If you're looking for new investment frontiers, this segment is not to be missed.Lastly, we tackle the twin giants of AI and infrastructure spending. Learn about the paradoxical nature of AI's initial inflationary pressures juxtaposed with its long-term deflationary effects. Tavi also sheds light on China's aggressive stockpiling of metals and its undisclosed gold purchases, a strategy that could provide unexpected liquidity and act as a market tailwind. This episode is packed with critical insights for anyone keen on understanding the future trajectory of global markets and the burgeoning demand for metals. Prepare to reframe your perspectives with expert analysis from Tavi Costa.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Today's sponsor is CBDX, home of premium, legal THC gummies. Perfect for relaxation, creativity, or unwinding after a long day, these delicious gummies deliver the quality you can trust. With fast discreet shipping and great flavors, CBDX makes enjoying THC easy and hassle-free.Visit CBDX.com and use code LEADLAG to save on your first order!  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show
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Aug 6, 2024 • 1h 1min

Diego Parrilla on Anti-Bubble Investing, Technological Change, and Global Market Risks

Unlock the secrets of intelligent investing with Diego Parrilla, a former commodities and macro trading expert from JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Merrill Lynch. Now at Quadriga in Spain, Diego introduces his innovative "anti-bubble" framework, illuminating how misperceptions in the market create undervalued opportunities. His strategy blends gold, fixed income, and options volatility to provide a well-rounded defense for your portfolio. Get ready to rethink your approach to market risk and learn how to capture premiums during extreme market events.Discover the fascinating world of game-changing technologies and their market-shaking impacts. From the dot-com era to the rise of AI and ChatGPT, we discuss how technological excitement often leads to growth spurts and inevitable corrections. Learn why these bubbles might actually expedite the adoption of transformative innovations and how to shield your investments from their volatility. Diego provides insights into leveraging gold, volatility, and other precious metals to navigate through these turbulent times.Dive deep into the economic challenges faced by high-debt nations like Japan and explore the complex interplay of geopolitical risks, economic imbalances, and energy trends. Understand the implications of Japan's soaring debt-to-GDP ratio, the potential for currency devaluation, and the global market repercussions. Drawing from historical analysis and expert insights from Ray Dalio, we unravel the interconnectedness of economic policies and global energy shifts. Equip yourself with strategic protective measures to safeguard your portfolio against these multifaceted risks.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Today's sponsor is CBDX, home of premium, legal THC gummies. Perfect for relaxation, creativity, or unwinding after a long day, these delicious gummies deliver the quality you can trust. With fast discreet shipping and great flavors, CBDX makes enjoying THC easy and hassle-free.Visit CBDX.com and use code LEADLAG to save on your first order!  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show
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Aug 5, 2024 • 44min

Jesse Felder on Insider Trading Insights, Market Dynamics Comparison, and Algorithmic Investing Challenges

What if insider trading activity could reveal hidden market trends? Join us as we sit down with Jesse Felder, the brilliant mind behind The Felder Report, to uncover his remarkable transition from Bear Stearns to co-founding a hedge fund and pioneering financial blogging. Jesse shares his invaluable expertise in market analysis, emphasizing the underappreciated significance of insider trading and comparing today's market dynamics with the dot-com bubble era. He also addresses the ever-evolving challenges of creating engaging content in a landscape dominated by passive investing and algorithmic trading.Next, we dive into the economic implications of insider activity with Professor Najat Sehun from the University of Michigan Business School. Leveraging her groundbreaking data, we discuss historically low net insider buying, signaling a bearish outlook from insiders. We explore sector-specific trends, the potential impact of election uncertainties, and unique insider buying activities in the small-cap space. Notably, we highlight turnaround situations like Beyond Inc., where executives like Marcus Limonis play a pivotal role in influencing these purchases.Lastly, we tackle pressing issues like the potential misalignment between the forward PE ratio of the S&P 500 and current economic data, supported by indicators such as the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index. We delve into macro indicators like the dollar, interest rates, and oil prices, and their effects on earnings projections. Our conversation underscores the importance of market breadth, with key signals like the Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome forewarning potential downturns. Emphasizing a conservative investment approach, we suggest diversification into energy, materials, real estate, and commodities. Wrap up the episode with heartfelt thanks to our live audience and a reminder to stay connected for future insights.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Today's sponsor is CBDX, home of premium, legal THC gummies. Perfect for relaxation, creativity, or unwinding after a long day, these delicious gummies deliver the quality you can trust. With fast discreet shipping and great flavors, CBDX makes enjoying THC easy and hassle-free.Visit CBDX.com and use code LEADLAG to save on your first order!  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show
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Aug 3, 2024 • 54min

Mark Yusko on AI, Data Security, and the Future of Fintech

Can Bitcoin truly be a better form of money than gold? Join us as we sit down with Mark Yusko, founder of Morgan Creek Capital Management, to unravel his transformative journey from traditional asset management to becoming a leading venture capitalist in the digital asset space. Mark opens up about his initial skepticism of Bitcoin, what led to his change of heart, and why he now sees it as a superior store of value. He also breaks down the distinctions between cryptocurrencies, utility tokens, and digital collectibles, offering a rich insight into the future of blockchain technology, which he intriguingly calls the "truth net."Is the stock market rational or driven by unpredictable forces? In our next segment, we explore the pivotal role of data in today's tech landscape and the evolution of AI. Mark shares his thoughts on the explosion of data creation over the last decade, the critical challenges around data security, and the innovative investments in encrypted data chips. We also dissect the erratic valuations of tech giants like Intel and Nvidia, comparing them to past phenomena such as MicroStrategy's dramatic rise and fall. Mark cautions against shorting momentum stocks, reminding us that the market often behaves irrationally.What does the future hold for global currencies? We delve into the complex world of cryptocurrency regulation and market dynamics, analyzing the SEC's approach to classifying cryptocurrencies like Cardano, Ethereum, and Solana. Mark discusses the SEC's enforcement tactics, their funding mechanisms, and the potential ramifications for investors. Wrapping up the episode, we turn our attention to Japan’s weakening yen and the broader economic implications. From the yen carry trade to demographic trends, Mark offers a compelling analysis of how Japan’s current economic situation could signal future challenges for the US and Europe. This episode is packed with thought-provoking insights and expert perspectives you won't want to miss!The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Today's sponsor is CBDX, home of premium, legal THC gummies. Perfect for relaxation, creativity, or unwinding after a long day, these delicious gummies deliver the quality you can trust. With fast discreet shipping and great flavors, CBDX makes enjoying THC easy and hassle-free.Visit CBDX.com and use code LEADLAG to save on your first order!  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show
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Jul 31, 2024 • 51min

Matt Stoller on U.S. Monopolies, Political Dynamics of Corporate Power, and Antitrust Enforcement Challenges

What if the American economy's foundation was built on small businesses rather than colossal corporations? Discover how we shifted from a decentralized landscape in the 1970s to today's monopolistic giants with our guest, Matt Stoller, an eminent public intellectual and author on monopolies and finance. Stoller reveals the philosophical shift that prioritized consumerism over citizenship, leading to a relaxation in antitrust laws and a landscape dominated by corporate mega-powers. Learn how this transition has created an economy riddled with extraction and bottlenecks, and how recent administrations are hinting at potential reforms to address these seismic changes.We also delve deep into the political arena, examining how corporate power shapes the strategies of key political figures like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Trump’s evolution towards a traditional Republican stance is contrasted with Harris's nuanced and often contradictory relationship with corporate power and Silicon Valley. Gain insight into Harris’s mixed record as California's Attorney General and the potential influences from powerful entities like Wall Street and labor unions that could sway future policies. This chapter is a compelling look at the intricate dance between politics and corporate dominance.On the global stage, Stoller tackles the complexities of antitrust enforcement, revealing the partisan divides that complicate the legislative process in the U.S. and similar challenges worldwide. Hear about the prolonged antitrust cases, such as the ongoing investigation into Google's monopoly, and the urgent need for more efficient enforcement. We also unpack the murky waters of pharmaceutical pricing, highlighting the significant role of pharmacy benefit managers in drug distribution and costs. This episode is a must-listen for those keen on understanding the systemic issues plaguing major industries and the emerging reform movements aimed at dismantling monopolistic control.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Today's sponsor is CBDX, home of premium, legal THC gummies. Perfect for relaxation, creativity, or unwinding after a long day, these delicious gummies deliver the quality you can trust. With fast discreet shipping and great flavors, CBDX makes enjoying THC easy and hassle-free.Visit CBDX.com and use code LEADLAG to save on your first order!  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show
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Jul 30, 2024 • 37min

Jeff Booth on Technology-Driven Deflation, Bitcoin's Role in Global Markets, and Future Financial Systems

What if the key to a more prosperous future lies in embracing deflation rather than fearing it? Join us as we sit down with Jeff Booth, technology entrepreneur and acclaimed author of "The Price of Tomorrow," to unravel the deflationary nature of technology and the transformative power of decentralized systems like Bitcoin and Nostr. Jeff provides a compelling argument for viewing Bitcoin as a protocol that offers a secure, decentralized alternative to our traditional, inflationary monetary systems. You'll gain a deeper understanding of how Nostr, a communication layer built on the Bitcoin protocol, ensures freedom of speech by preventing any central authority from controlling or limiting your audience.We dissect the real estate and stock markets through the lens of Bitcoin, revealing how properties that seem to appreciate in fiat terms are actually losing value against Bitcoin. This eye-opening perspective highlights the inefficiency of traditional investments and underscores why Bitcoin-based companies might yield superior returns. Delve into the potential centralization threats posed by Bitcoin's layer two solutions and grapple with the challenges of setting price targets for this revolutionary asset. Discover how Bitcoin has the potential to reshape market dynamics and human freedom on a global scale, offering more efficient and equitable financial systems.In our final chapter, we explore the staggering global debt and assets figures, discussing the insolvency of current systems and the potential for Bitcoin to reprice these assets fundamentally. We also touch upon the political ramifications of Bitcoin, noting the increasing engagement of politicians with the Bitcoin community to secure votes. As we wrap up, we entertain the idea of Jeff Booth for president and emphasize the importance of following him on platforms like Nostr and X. Don't miss out on Jeff's insightful book, "The Price of Tomorrow," and join us in expressing our gratitude to the audience for their continued support.The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Today's sponsor is CBDX, home of premium, legal THC gummies. Perfect for relaxation, creativity, or unwinding after a long day, these delicious gummies deliver the quality you can trust. With fast discreet shipping and great flavors, CBDX makes enjoying THC easy and hassle-free.Visit CBDX.com and use code LEADLAG to save on your first order!  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show
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Jul 27, 2024 • 47min

Joseph Wang on Federal Reserve Politics, Rate Cut Implications, and Trump's Dollar Strategy

Ever wondered how Federal Reserve policies are shaping the markets and economy? Join us as we welcome Joseph Wang, former senior trader at the Federal Reserve's open markets desk and author of "Central Banking 101." Joseph brings an unparalleled perspective to our discussion, shedding light on the Fed's increasing market interventions and its growing tendency to prioritize low unemployment over inflation control. You'll gain unique insights into the political dynamics within the Federal Reserve, including its apparent bias towards the Democratic Party and the political motivations behind calls for rate cuts.We also tackle the intricate effects of rate cuts on various sectors, such as REITs and RMBS REITs, distinguishing between cuts spurred by economic downturns and those driven by declining inflation. Joseph provides an expert analysis of the banking sector's health, especially focusing on the challenges faced by regional banks and potential risks from commercial real estate. The conversation broadens to encompass the global rate-cutting cycle, exploring the actions of other central banks like the ECB and the Bank of Canada and their implications for the Fed and global monetary policy.Looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election, we delve into how a potential Trump administration could influence US currency policy, particularly in terms of favoring a weaker dollar to boost exports. Joseph offers intriguing market indicators, including Taiwan's stock market and its impact on the tech sector, alongside classic Trump trades like immigration and tax cuts. We also highlight gold as an attractive investment, driven by global geopolitical tensions and US fiscal policies. This episode is packed with valuable insights on monetary policy, economic trends, and investment strategies you won't want to miss.Today's sponsor is CBDX, home of premium, legal THC gummies. Perfect for relaxation, creativity, or unwinding after a long day, these delicious gummies deliver the quality you can trust. With fast discreet shipping and great flavors, CBDX makes enjoying THC easy and hassle-free.Visit CBDX.com and use code LEADLAG to save on your first order!  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show
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Jul 24, 2024 • 46min

Julian Brigden on Tech Market Sustainability, Small vs. Large Cap Dynamics, and Inflation Risks

Can the tech sector sustain its dominance in a volatile market? Join us as we sit down with Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, to uncover the secrets behind his innovative firm that mimics the strategic morning meetings of top macro hedge funds. Julian delves into the unexpected market shifts between small and large caps, and the intricate dance of CPI on macro trading strategies. He also sheds light on the pivotal role tech plays in fueling market rallies, questioning whether this momentum is truly sustainable amidst a backdrop of uneven productivity gains.In this episode, Julian unpacks the potential for a dramatic rotation from growth to value stocks, drawing comparisons to the dot-com bubble burst of the early 2000s. We explore the dynamics influencing gold and silver prices amid market turbulence and the critical factors that could transform a harsh market environment into a more favorable one. Julian also highlights the looming threat of rebounding inflation metrics in Q4, the Fed's possible delayed responses, and the historical parallels that could indicate severe equity market declines. All this, while considering the looming influence of upcoming elections on inflation trends.Dive deep into the global macro hedge fund thesis with an exploration of Soros’ concept of reflexivity and its profound impact on financial markets. Julian provides a detailed analysis of how US monetary policy divergence and global negative interest rates have fueled a hyper-financialized economy, leading to significant capital inflows into US assets. We wrap up by examining the structural shifts in the bond market, the impact of changing demographics on bond demand, and how Macro Intelligence Partners equips institutional clients with essential macroeconomic insights and actionable trade recommendations amidst market chaos. Don't miss this episode packed with expert analysis and nuanced market perspectives!The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Today's sponsor is CBDX, home of premium, legal THC gummies. Perfect for relaxation, creativity, or unwinding after a long day, these delicious gummies deliver the quality you can trust. With fast discreet shipping and great flavors, CBDX makes enjoying THC easy and hassle-free.Visit CBDX.com and use code LEADLAG to save on your first order!  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show

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