Macro Mondays

The podcast discusses the potential impact of rising energy prices on the US economy and the dollar, including the challenge to the dominance of the US dollar and the possibility of an earlier recession. They also analyze the consequences of a lack of agreement on spending, including automatic spending cuts and the possibility of a recession. The speakers discuss recent trends and signals in the energy market, including their long energy bias and the cracks in gasoline prices. They also touch on the decline in gasoline demand, implications for the transportation industry, and the decision to buy consumer discretionary stocks. Finally, they discuss the argument for being long on a certain metric and their temptation to say that the dollar is a strong place to hide.

This podcast discusses the state of nuclear energy, including the current conditions of the commodity and energy markets. They explore the rising prices and decreased availability of uranium, as well as the need to fill a significant gap in demand. The speaker also shares their hesitations about taking on trades in the nuclear market and proposes shifting focus within the energy space. Additionally, they discuss concerns about Europe's overperformance and a potential market downturn.

Former President of the Atlanta Fed and former FOMC member Dennis Lockhart shares his view on central banks and the US economy. Frances Donald, Global Chief Economist at Manulife Investment, discusses market analysis and the potential for risk asset surges. They cover central bank decisions/non-decisions, impact of oil on disinflation, recession risk, asset allocation, variable rate mortgages, immigration's impact on housing market, and trading strategies.

The podcast discusses the state of the European economy, the energy situation in Europe, the potential crisis in commercial real estate, Asian tourism trends, and the effects of Chinese tourists on other countries. They also explore the implications of China's stabilization for energy prices and the opportunities in Japan's tourism economy.

Mikael Sarwe, an expert from Nordea Bank, discusses the impact of production cuts on inflation and growth. Topics include oil price rallies, OPEC's actions, GDP vs GDI, current momentum in geographies, US housing market, prospects of Europe bringing inflation, and a four-day working week in Germany.

Michael Cembalest of J.P. Morgan discusses The Rasputin Effect, the US labor market, fiscal policy, interest rates, and the impact of the Chips Act and IRA. The podcast also explores the projection of US tax revenue being consumed by entitlements and interest. Economic challenges for Europe and China are also analyzed, along with discussions on adjustments, establishing a floor, and transparency.

Former Director at The Economist Intelligence Unit in Asia, Tony Nash, joins the hosts to discuss the evolving crisis in Beijing. They talk about the impact of the weak Chinese currency on import prices, the downfall of the banking industry in Ireland, and portfolio bets on European vulnerability and Asian assets. They also explore the similarities between the Euro and the Korean won and offer an exclusive discount for the audience.

The podcast discusses the current state of the Chinese economy, the acceleration of passenger car exports from China, the importance of the 730 handle holding, China's response to the real estate market, uncertainty surrounding the Chinese strategic petroleum reserve, and activist protests against fossil fuel production.

The yield curve inversion was never a recession signal. An uninversion and higher rates (via bear steepening) is needed to push the economy in to recession. We discuss the allocation playbook given the knowledge we have on the yield curve with Bob Elliot, former Bridgewater and now CIO of Unlimited Funds. You can use Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription at www.stenoresearch.com

Is the big rotation now ongoing in rates and equities after the BoJ steepened the JGB curve?Find out as we discuss the bizarre developments in Niger, Jeddah and Japan in light of the material steepening of the USD curve.You can find more on www.stenoresearch.com and use the exclusive code Macro30 to get 30% off your annual subscription.