#23 - Are central banks insolvent? Guest: Dario Perkins
Nov 12, 2023
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Dario Perkins, central bank watcher and creator of the Perkins rule, discusses central bank insolvency, fiscal consequences of quantitative easing (QE), and the impact of Asian trade on Federal Reserve's decision. They also explore the long-term consequences of QE and delve into the factors driving the recent move in Bitcoin.
Central banks can face negative equity and operating losses with fiscal consequences and potential impact on their independence.
European central banks have overtightened, leading to a bigger monetary squeeze on a weaker economy, signaling a deflationary environment.
The Perkins Rule serves as an indicator of an impending recession, helping investors recognize when to exit risk assets.
Deep dives
The impact of central bank insolvency
Dario Perkins discusses the implications of central banks facing negative equity and operating losses. While central banks cannot go bankrupt, these losses can have fiscal consequences and potentially dilute their independence. Perkins encourages central banks to develop mechanisms that automatically address losses and maintain their independence.
Challenges faced by European central banks
Perkins argues that European central banks have overtightened, creating a bigger monetary squeeze on an economy that is fundamentally weaker. Negative foreign direct investment flows into China and declining inflation numbers indicate an ongoing deflationary environment. Perkins suggests that the European Central Bank needs to cut interest rates as it is sliding into a recession.
The significance of the Perkins Rule
Perkins introduces his rule as an indicator of an impending recession. He defines a recession as a negative payroll number that cannot be explained by external factors. The Perkins Rule suggests that central banks are more likely to ease their policies when a recession is on the horizon. This insight helps investors recognize when to exit risk assets.
The potential reasons behind Bitcoin's recent surge
Mass Eberhardt attributes Bitcoin's recent surge to two main factors. The first is the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which historically has led to new all-time highs for Bitcoin. The second factor is the anticipated approval of a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC in the United States, similar to what happened with gold ETFs in the past. This ETF will provide institutional and retail investors easier access to Bitcoin.
Opportunities in digital assets and cryptocurrency
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We are joined by one of the best central bank watchers in the world, Dario Perkins of TS Lombard to discuss whether negative equity in central banks practically matter.
Dario says theoretically no, but practically yes while also introducing his "Perkins rule" for recession watching.
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Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Emil Møller Guest. Dario Perkins Special guest: Mads Eberhardt
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