Sinica Podcast

Lyle Goldstein, Director for China engagement at Defense Priorities, talks about a wargaming exercise on a Chinese assault on Taiwan. He discusses the value of wargaming, the assumptions made, and the role of other countries. The possibility of nuclear escalation and the report's conclusions are also explored.

This week on Sinica, Paul Triolo returns to the show to give us a rundown on what’s happening in the exciting arena of generative AI in China. The veteran China tech watcher, who is now Senior VP for China and Technology Policy Lead at Dentons Global Advisors ASG, is Just back from a trip to China during which he spoke with numerous companies working in the space, Paul offers a great overview of what various companies are doing, and how they’re responding to U.S. restrictions on the export of key hardware needed for large AI training and modeling.03:38 – The Chinese AI community’s reaction to the unveiling of ChatGPT by OpenAI08:14 – What drives China’s National AI Development strategy?14:31 – Chinese AI researchers and their perspectives on regulation21:28 – Is there a lot of investor money going into Generative AI startups?24:25 – U.S. policy on China’s AI development35:53 – What will China’s Generative AI look like?44:14– Companies involved in Chinese AI51:31 – The changing availability of innovative AI scientists in China55:10 – How will decoupling effect AI competition?A complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations:Paul: The Alignment Problem by Brian ChristianA Lonesome Dove trilogy by Larry McMurtryBlood Meridian by Cormac McCarthyKaiser: The Righteous Gemstones on HBOJustified: City Prime Evil on Hulu TSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, with Kaiser on holiday we're running a terrific Twitter Spaces conversation convened by Neysun Mahboubi of UPenn's Center for the Study of Contemporary China. He's gathered a great group including Yawei Liu, whose U.S.-China Perception Monitor under the Carter Center is the co-sponsor for Neysun's series, as well as Anna Ashton of the Eurasia Group, Robert Daly of the Kissinger Institute, Rorry Daniels of the Asia Society Policy Institute, and Ian Johnson of the Council on Foreign Relations. Enjoy this in-depth exploration of the state of U.S.-China relations — as well as the opening segment on the fate of ex-PRC Foreign Minister Qin Gang.No transcript this week, but enjoy the show!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser is joined by Margaret (Maggie) Lewis, professor of law at Seton Hall University and veteran Taiwan observer, and Paul Heer, former national intelligence officer for East Asia in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) under the Obama administration. Both were members of the Council on Foreign Relations’s task force on U.S.-Taiwan policy, which produced a report titled “U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era: Responding to a More Assertive China.” Both also wrote dissents, included in the report, about some of its findings and recommendations. They discuss what they think the report got right — and what it got wrong.01:01 – Introduction to the CFR’s report U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era: Responding to a More Assertive China05:09 – The mechanics of producing the report06:46 – Areas of common consensus among participants08:48 – What is the significance of the PLA’s centennial in 2027 in view of the CFR task force?10:54 – Is the report too focused on the military at the expense of political, diplomatic, and economic considerations?14:22 – Taiwanese perspectives in the report16:36 – Strategic ambiguity and President Biden’s “gaffes” as a new baseline for U.S. declaratory policy20:48 – The issue of deterrence: American and Chinese approaches25:48 – What has the United States done to move the status quo in terms of the Taiwan issue?41:06 – Is there evidence yet of Chinese preparation for a military action against Taiwan?A complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations:Maggie: Fever: The Hunt for Covid’s Origin by John Sudworth (podcast)Paul: Oppenheimer by Christopher Nolan Kennan: A life between Worlds by Frank Costigliola Kaiser: The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline by Yasheng HuangSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser welcomes back Jeremy Daum, senior research scholar in law and senior fellow at the Paul Tsai China Law Center. Jeremy has a well-deserved reputation as a debunker of myths and misperceptions about China. This time, he takes on the much-discussed “overseas police stations,” and examines how they are — and aren’t — related to China’s transnational repression.01:03 – The overview of the investigation on Chinese overseas police stations06:19 – The disparity between the press release and the actual charges against the investigated Chinese individuals08:48 – The functions of so-called Chinese secret police stations in the U.S.11:10 – What was wrong with the report written by Safeguard Defenders?16:57 – What is being national in the aforementioned policies?19:22 – Evidence of a link between physical presence with transnational repression or repatriation of criminals26:29 – Is the media narrative regarding popular myths about China slowly changing?30:22 – Other governments’ views on and actions towards Chinese police stations31:38 – Tactics used on the return of alleged criminals to China34:11 – An update on the topic of draft regulations on Generative AIA complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations:Jeremy: I’m a Virgo, a television show on Amazon Prime.Kaiser: A perfect family dinner for the summer: An easy recipe for spicy salmon/tunaSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, UPenn legal scholar Neysun Mahboubi talks about his recently-concluded trip back to China — his first time back since the outbreak of the pandemic. Neysun talks about the importance of in-person, face-to-face scholarly exchange, and despite concerns over the more restrictive political space in China, sounds a hopeful note about what the restoration of in-person exchange might mean for the future of U.S.-China relations.05:02 – Neysun Mahboubi’s YouTube-based initiatives on the U.S.-China relations10:15 – The changes in Beijing in recent years13:49 – The recently observed growing reticence of Chinese people to speak up, and the third-rail topics16:50 – The effect of Chinese administrative handling of the pandemic on people’s trust25:01 – What is the view of Chinese liberal intellectuals on the role of the U.S. in the worsening U.S.-China relations?28:29 – Have the Biden administration’s recent efforts to thaw the U.S.-China relations been well received by the Chinese side?32:48 – The future of scholarly exchanges from China and the U.S. in light of the pandemic and escalating political tensions40:13 – The Ukraine War from the perspective of Chinese intellectualsA complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations:Neysun: To Live, directed by Zhang YimouKaiser: The Status Kuo, an American politics substack by Jay KuoMentioned: To Live: A Novel by Yu Hua (translated by Michael Berry)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser chats with Elsa Kania, a Ph.D. candidate in Harvard University's Department of Government and adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security who researches China's military strategy, defense innovation, and emerging technologies. Elsa joins the show to discuss China’s push for Military-Civil Fusion, debunking some of the myths about the program that U.S. pundits and policymakers have imbibed.03:54 – Did the concept of Military-Civil Fusion start with the leadership of Xi Jinping?06:48 What were the barriers to MCF’s successful implementation before Xi’s leadership?09:50 – The comparison between attempts and successes of MCF in China and the U.S.15:39 – Areas of focus of China’s MCF. Which areas offer the most significant possibility for success?20:17 – A look at the perceived legal obligation of Chinese companies to participate in MCF24:59 – The collaboration between Chinese and American researchers in light of MCF31:00 – The awareness of Chinese policy-makers of the sensitivities associated with MCF by other nations34:56 – Does MCF have the same place of prominence in the Biden administration that it did in the Trump’ administration?37:20 – How should we approach the policy of MCF?42:27 – Is the U.S. trying to “out-China” China?A complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations:Elsa: Translation State by Ann LeckieKaiser: A recipe for making homemade nuomi cha / genmai cha — green tea with roasted glutinous riceSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

With Secretary of State Antony Blinken's two days of meetings in Beijing just concluded, Kaiser spoke with Dennis Wilder, managing director for the Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues at Georgetown University, where he also serves as an assistant professor of practice in Asian Studies in the School of Foreign Service. Dennis was the National Security Council's director for China from 2004-2005, and then served as the NSC special assistant to the president and senior director for East Asian affairs from 2005 to 2009. From 2009 to 2015 Dennis served as the senior editor of the President’s Daily Brief, the worldwide intelligence update produced under the auspices of the director of national intelligence. He also served from 2015 to 2016 as the CIA’s deputy assistant director for East Asia and the Pacific. Who better to give an informed take on Secretary Blinken's diplomatic mission?Today is a public U.S. holiday so we'll get the transcript and podcast page with show notes up later in the week. Look for it on the TheChinaProject.com website.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser is joined by Keyu Jin, associate professor of economics at LSE, who talks about her new book, The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism, a wide-ranging, ambitious, and accessible book that explains the unique Chinese political economy, emphasizing both its successes to date and how it must change to meet the challenges to come.01:01 – An overview of the book The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism by Keyu Jin09:22 – Is the criticism about being pro-China justified?14:25 – The element of culture in the Chinese economy27:56 – What is the mayor economy and what are its pros and cons?38:00 – The power of the Chinese state to affect changes in the macroeconomy42:52 – The modern state-owned enterprise and its purpose47:39 – China’s financial system – the disparity between China’s GDP growth and its abyssmal stock market52:07 – The current situation with the real estate market: Is the bubble going to pop?1:02:03 – Pros and cons of the growth of the shadow banking sector in China1:06:32 – The position of China in the global trading system1:13:52 – How does China respond to technology restrictions in key areas such as semiconductor manufacturing?A complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations:Keyu: When the Facts Change: Essays, 1995-2010 by Tony JudtKaiser: 1776 (Musical)Mentioned:The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism by Keyu JinSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser chats with David Ownby, the University of Montreal historian who runs the excellent ReadingTheChinaDream.com website — a trove of translations of writings by mainstream Chinese intellectuals. David talks about the website’s mission and about tells about his recent three-week trip to Beijing and Shanghai, in which he met with many of the people he translates on his site. Many of them are profoundly disillusioned with the leadership’s handling of the end of Zero-COVID, he found.03:38 – Genesis of the project Reading the Chinese Dream09:32 – The choice of intellectuals being translated14:11 – An overview of common ideological denominators for the New Confucians, the Liberals, and the New Left.24:19 – The emerging groups as a direct response to certain phenomena happening in the West25:58 – How did we fail to understand the intellectual life in China?30:30 – An overview of David’s recent trip to China35:12 – How does the post-COVID reality in China affect Chinese intellectuals?45:34 – Are we observing a turning point in the intellectual community and its relationship with the Chinese government?47:41 – The attitudes of Chinese intellectuals towards the U.S.56:04 – Will the negativity currently observed among Chinese intellectuals a temporary or enduring issue?A complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations:David: Ties by Domenico Starnone, translated by Jhumpa LahiriKaiser: The Thirty Years War: Europe's Tragedy by Peter H. WilsonMentioned:Translating Myself and Others by Jhumpa LahiriSimplicissimus by Johann GrimmelshausenSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.