Sinica Podcast

Wargaming a Taiwan invasion scenario: Lyle Goldstein on the CSIS wargame “The First Battle of the Next War"

Aug 17, 2023

Lyle Goldstein, Director for China engagement at Defense Priorities, talks about a wargaming exercise on a Chinese assault on Taiwan. He discusses the value of wargaming, the assumptions made, and the role of other countries. The possibility of nuclear escalation and the report's conclusions are also explored.

01:07:59

Episode guests

Lyle Goldstein

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Quick takeaways

The war gaming exercise 'The First Battle of the Next War' explored a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, revealing potential critiques and assumptions about the scenario.

The report analyzing potential losses and risks in a conflict with China emphasizes the need for a different strategic approach and highlights concerns about Taiwan's military capabilities.

The podcast discusses the nuclear risks involved in a conflict with China and the importance of diplomatic efforts to maintain stability in the Pacific region.

Deep dives

China Project's Student Ambassador Program

The China Project offers a Student Ambassador Program for university and graduate students interested in China. The program aims to develop leadership skills, connect students with China experts, and make an impact on their school and community.

Introduction

5min

The Importance of War Gaming and the History of War Plan Orange

3min

The Importance of War Gaming

11min

Assumptions in a Wargame Exercise on a Taiwan Invasion Scenario

27min

Decision-Making Process and Constitutional Issues

15min

China conference announcement and museum recommendation

3min

A Recommendation for 'The Story of Civilization' by Will Durant

5min

This week on Sinica, Kaiser welcomes back Lyle Goldstein, director for China engagement at the think tank Defense Priorities and previously a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, where he taught for 20 years. Lyle offers his perspectives on an extensive wargaming exercise focusing on a Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan, conducted under the auspices of CSIS (the Center for Strategic and International Studies) and published in January of this year — the first such exercise whose findings were made public. He offers insight into the real value of the exercise, as well as some of its shortcomings.

01:03 – The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan – the first large-scale publicly available wargame conducted by CSIS

04:05 – The history of wargaming and its significance

09:09 – What is the value of wargaming?

13:12 – The physical setup of the wargames and the role of dice and technology in contingency

17:49 – The assumptions that go into the game

22:05 – How much agency do the players have?

24:16 – How are the decisions of other countries factored in the wargame?

26:11 – Pros and cons of the CSIS wargame

31:57 – Thoughts on the possibility of nuclear escalation

38:43 – A take on the report’s assumptions and conclusions

47:37 – Will we get a warning?

A complete transcript of this episode is available at TheChinaProject.com.

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