The Importance of War Gaming and the History of War Plan Orange

This week on Sinica, Kaiser welcomes back Lyle Goldstein, director for China engagement at the think tank Defense Priorities and previously a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, where he taught for 20 years. Lyle offers his perspectives on an extensive wargaming exercise focusing on a Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan, conducted under the auspices of CSIS (the Center for Strategic and International Studies) and published in January of this year — the first such exercise whose findings were made public. He offers insight into the real value of the exercise, as well as some of its shortcomings.

01:03 – The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan – the first large-scale publicly available wargame conducted by CSIS

04:05 – The history of wargaming and its significance

09:09 – What is the value of wargaming?

13:12 – The physical setup of the wargames and the role of dice and technology in contingency

17:49 – The assumptions that go into the game

22:05 – How much agency do the players have?

24:16 – How are the decisions of other countries factored in the wargame?

26:11 – Pros and cons of the CSIS wargame

31:57 – Thoughts on the possibility of nuclear escalation

38:43 – A take on the report’s assumptions and conclusions

47:37 – Will we get a warning?

A complete transcript of this episode is available at TheChinaProject.com.

Recommendations:

CSIS Report: The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

Lyle: Yin Yu Tang in Peabody Essex Museum, Salem, Massachusetts

Kaiser: The Story of Civilization [Volumes 1 to 11] by Will & Ariel Durant

Our Oriental Heritage: The Story of Civilization, Volume 1 by Will Durant

Mentioned:

Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry by Lyle J. Goldstein

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