Deal Flow Friday

In this episode, David Moghavem interviews Ben Murphy, the investment sales director at Commercial Integrity, about the investment landscape in Portland, Oregon. They discuss the unique opportunities in the Portland market, including the impact of inclusionary zoning, the recovery of the urban core, and the growth of suburban areas. Ben shares insights on why investing in blue states can be beneficial, the challenges posed by regulatory environments, and the potential for value-add opportunities in older properties. The conversation emphasizes the importance of understanding local market dynamics and offers advice for new investors looking to enter the Portland market.Chapters00:00 Intro: Meet Ben Murphy03:32 Why Portland? The Contrarian Case for Blue States06:34 Portland = The Midwest of the West?08:44 Unique Ownership Structure in Portland10:05 The Affordability Advantage12:26 Why No One Is Building in Portland16:19 Urban Core Recovery & Deep Discounts19:21 Policy Reversal & Urban Revitalization22:56 Suburban Boom: Where to Look26:29 Advice for New Investors in Portland29:14 Don't Sleep on 60s & 70s Product31:29 Final Thoughts & How to Reach Benwww.dealflowfriday.comX:@dealflowfridayInstagram:@dealflowfridayBen Murphy Contact Info:+1-503-707-6570ben.murphy@cinw.com

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem sits down with Andrew Kwok, Principal at Arcus Harbor Real Estate Capital, to dive deep into the rapidly evolving debt and equity landscape in commercial real estate. They explore why private credit is on fire, the regulatory pressures driving borrowers away from traditional banks, and how debt funds are competing for deals. Andrew shares valuable insights from his 20+ years in the industry, including lessons learned from launching Arcus Harbor and navigating capital markets post-COVID.From structured finance to agency lending, Andrew and David break down how sponsors can smartly recapitalize, refinance, or acquire assets in today’s climate—where positive leverage is back and the devil is in the details. If you're trying to make sound capital decisions in 2025, this episode is packed with strategy, nuance, and perspective. Chapters 00:00 – Introduction & Arcus Swag Talk01:38 – The Arcus Team’s Deep History03:03 – USC Real Estate Board & Market Thought Leadership04:48 – Why Private Credit is Booming07:18 – Operators Entering the Credit Game09:18 – Shifting from Credit to Equity?10:38 – Appetite Swings in Debt Fund Lending12:08 – CLOs, Back Leverage & Loan Sales Explained13:48 – How Bank Regulation Benefits Private Credit17:08 – Why Arcus Rebranded & How It’s Structured20:18 – Arcus Lending Products and Market Coverage23:18 – A More Nimble, Client-First Approach27:18 – Deal Volume: Agency vs. Alternatives29:48 – Refinances, Maturities & Acquisition Trends34:18 – Seller Capitulation & Buying Below Replacement Cost36:48 – Positive Leverage is Back38:28 – Syndicators: Old School vs. New Age40:38 – Strategic Recapitalizations with Cash-In Refinances43:18 – Insurance Market Dislocation & Recovery45:18 – Advice for Sponsors Making Tough Decisions47:48 – Why Term Sheets Aren’t Always What They Seem49:18 – Deep Diligence and Underwriting is Back51:48 – Term Sheet Minutiae: Strike Prices, Floors, and Caps53:38 – Creative Cap Structures and Market Nuances55:08 – Wrapping Up With Golf & Gratitude

In this episode, David Moghavem sits down with Michael Khalilzad, founder of Castle Square, to discuss the realities of raising equity in today’s market and how creative structuring is unlocking deals. Michael shares why capital is demanding high cash-on-cash yields and strong basis, how he structured a second-loss equity position to overcome investor objections, and why reputation and certainty are driving discounted acquisitions. They dive into ground-up development challenges, co-GP structures with blue-chip developers to unlock financing, and why Michael believes innovative hybrid equity products will be key to getting deals done in this market. If you want real insights on where capital is flowing and how to structure deals creatively, this episode is packed with tactical takeaways. Chapters00:00 Introduction & Podcasting with Sam Zell07:14 Today’s Capital Markets Reality10:03 Creative Structures to Get Deals Done15:26 What Investors Are Looking For Today18:18 Midwest Six Caps, Below Replacement Cost21:14 Seller Capitulation is Happening, We Have The Receipts! 24:54 How To Source Great Deals in This Market27:48 PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: The Importance of Proper Underwriting29:48 Underwriting Sponsors33:58 Deploying Ground Up Construction Capital in An Unfavorable Development Market36:55 CO-GP Ground Up Development Program40:21 Loan Guarantee & Credit Enhancement Program42:34 Advice for Emerging Operators and Capital Raisers46:14 The Need for Innovative Capital Products

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, host David Moghavem sits down with Jared Zeisler, Principal at Capital Solutions, to unpack where capital is (and isn’t) flowing in today’s market. Jared shares why buying below replacement cost remains core to their strategy, why rescue capital isn’t the opportunity it seems without resetting basis, and how Capital Solutions is approaching deals with a “downside first” framework. They discuss why bridge debt is creeping back into deals (and why it still scares them), the real story behind student housing deals they’re buying at half of replacement cost, how their portfolio has held up through rate hikes, what makes a deal actually get capitalized today, and why conviction and downside protection matter more than pro forma upside in this market. If you’re an operator looking to raise equity or an allocator looking to deploy smart capital, this episode is packed with candid insights on underwriting, market cycles, and what it takes to get deals done in 2025. Chapters00:00 Introduction to Capital Solutions and Market Overview03:28 What Gets Funded Today vs. Passed On07:56 Development Challenges: High Costs, Low Absorption11:39 Portfolio Performance: Winners, Losers, and Lessons15:13 Rescue Capital Reality Check19:03 Does that "Positive Leverage Day One" deal really exist? 23:01 The Return of Bridge Debt. Did People Not Learn Their Lesson???28:28 The "Perks" of Multifamily? Government-Backed Leverage31:39 Investing in Student Housing36:37 Picking The Right Partner, Especially in a Down Cycle40:39 Advice for Operators Looking for Equity44:45 Haven't seen the "Flush Out" of Distress... Yet.

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, host David Moghavem speaks with Joe Paskov from Bentall Green Oak about the current state of the real estate investment market. They discuss the challenges and opportunities in various asset classes, the impact of interest rates on investment strategies, and the importance of building strong relationships in the industry. Joe shares insights on BGOs geographic focus, market analysis, AI-driven algorithmic approach to choosing markets, and the dynamics of institutional investors, emphasizing the need for a long-term perspective in navigating the evolving landscape of real estate investing.Chapters00:00 Introduction & BGO Overview03:59 Where’s the Opportunity Now?  ZIRP era vs. Today12:17 Redemption Clauses & The Liquidity Crunch16:34 What Will Get BGO Off the Sidelines?24:16 Geographic Focuses in BGO's Fund Strategies26:03 Inside BGO’s AI-Driven Decision Making in Market Analysis33:26 Future Deal Activity and Market Trends39:33 Building Relationships with Institutional Partnerswww.dealflowfriday.com

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, host David Moghavem speaks with Garrett Nondorf of Flagship Capital, a highly active Middle Market Credit and Equity allocator. They discuss the active deal flow at Flagship, including recent term sheets and the company's approach to investments in steady markets such as the Midwest, dive into the challenges in the Sun Belt, the supply side story within the Pacific Northwest, and operational issues affecting real estate in various geographies. Garrett shares insights on how sponsors can navigate the current market conditions and successfully raise capital.Chapters00:00 Intro, 'Stash talk', & LinkedIn Meme Game02:55 How is Flagship Capital Getting Deals Done?06:42 Focus on Equity Investments09:30 Steady-eddy Midwest16:39 SunBelt Owners Are Starting to Capitulate.20:46 Operational Challenges in the Market23:06 Pac-NorthWest, Supply-Side Story24:50 Challenges in California's Housing Market26:18 Navigating Investment Committee Challenges29:32 Identifying Opportunities in Secondary Markets32:18 Operational Challenges and Cost Stabilization37:20 Advice for Capital Raising in Today's Marketwww.dealflowfriday.com

In this conversation, Omar Morales and David Moghavem delve into the intricacies of the Miami real estate market, discussing the challenges and opportunities that have emerged in the wake of COVID-19. They explore the evolution of Trion, the impact of tariffs on development, and the importance of understanding local dynamics in order to find value in real estate investments. The discussion also highlights the significance of insurance rates, the emergence of new markets, and the challenges of fundraising in a changing economic landscape.Chapters00:00 Intro00:39 David's Background and Move to Miami03:03 Navigating Market Dynamics and Opportunities05:58 The Impact of Immigration on Miami's Growth08:54 Understanding Supply and Demand in Multifamily12:09 Challenges in Development and Construction14:55 The Role of Tariffs in Real Estate17:51 Investment Strategies and Market Trends21:01 Fundraising in a Changing Market24:08 Identifying Hidden Markets and Opportunities

In this episode, David Moghavem speaks with Adrian Berger from Cypress Equity Investments about the current state of the real estate market, the challenges and surprises in lending, and the importance of networking. They discuss the shift in off-market deals, the company's development strategy, and the potential opportunities in self-storage and affordable housing. Adrian shares insights on navigating insurance and operating expenses in LA, as well as the significance of building relationships in the industry.Chapters00:00 Intro01:35 Navigating the Current Market Landscape04:37 Surprises in Lending and Valuation07:38 The Shift in Deal Dynamics10:33 Cypress Equity's Evolution and Strategy13:26 Co-GP Partnerships and Diversification16:36 Future Directions and Market Opportunities21:07 Exploring Market Opportunities and Challenges24:32 Impact of Local Regulations on Development27:39 The Role of Long-Term Relationships in Development30:30 Adjusting Underwriting for Current Market Conditions32:30 Comparing LA with Other Markets33:40 Covered Land Plays and Their Benefits34:39 Investor Sentiment and Market Confidence35:33 The Future of the Entertainment Industry in LA37:54 The Ebb and Flow of LA's Market40:40 Investment Strategies in a Changing Landscape41:52 Navigating Affordable Housing Challenges45:14 The Complexity of Building in LA48:03 Insurance Challenges in Real Estate49:45 The Importance of Networking in Real EstateIG: https://www.instagram.com/dealflowfriday/X: https://x.com/dealflowfridayLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidmoghavem/www.dealflowfriday.com

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem, Max Sharkansky, and Mitch Paskover discuss the current state of the real estate market, focusing on the impact of tariffs, inflation, interest rates, and investment strategies. They explore how these factors are influencing consumer confidence, lender behavior, and overall market trends. The conversation also delves into geographical investment opportunities and the challenges faced by investors in today's economic climate, concluding with thoughts on future market predictions and operational challenges.Chapters00:00 Introduction and Yearly Recap02:16 Tariffs and Economic Predictions04:48 Impact of Tariffs on Multifamily Sector08:10 Interest Rates and Future Predictions11:31 Investment Strategies and Market Trends15:31 "The Party Is Over" In The Midwest19:28 Long West Coast? Depends Where. 23:06 Emerging Distress in the Market28:33 Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics33:46 Long-Term Perspectives on Real Estate Investments39:50 Optimism and Future Market Predictions

In this episode of Deal Flow Friday, host David Moghavem interviews Mike Sroka, founder and CEO of Dealpath, discussing the evolution of PropTech, the impact of economic changes on the real estate market, and the role of AI in enhancing real estate management. They explore how Deal Path has adapted to client needs and the importance of technology in navigating the current market landscape. The conversation also touches on the future of real estate technology and the potential for a rebound in the Bay Area.Chapters00:00 Introduction to Deal Path and PropTech Innovations03:31 Mike Sroka's Journey and the Birth of Dealpath09:27 Evolution of the Real Estate Software Landscape12:48 Navigating CRE Market Changes as a PropTech Company15:44 The Value of Dealpath in Different Market Conditions21:42 Adapting to Client Needs and Market Trends27:52 Leveraging Data for Product Development31:04 The Role of AI in Real Estate38:34 Assessing Technology Needs in Real Estate40:13 Real Estate's Digital Transformation Journey45:50 The Future of Real Estate in a Tech-Driven Market