The Political Risk Podcast

Sub-Saharan Africa’s mining industry is highly exposed to political risk and particularly expropriatory acts by host governments. In this special episode, in association with Gallagher Specialty, Rupert Morgan, Executive Director, Structured Credit and Political Risks, Arthur J. Gallagher International, focuses on five countries: Burkina Faso; Mali; Ghana; Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania. The ep coincides with the Africa Down Under conference in Perth, Australia, and the Q3 publication of Gallagher Specialty’s Structured Credit and Political Risk Insurance Market Update.

The CrowdStrike outage is the latest cyber event to leave underwriters fearing unforeseen catastrophe scenarios and questioning cyber risk aggregations. But could the dramatic headlines and re/insurance buzz about cyber cat be a whole lot of hyperbole? Tom Johansmeyer, global head of index classes, Price Forbes Re, and a POLIR PhD candidate at the University of Kent, Canterbury, certainly thinks so.

Sam Wilkin, director of political risk analytics at WTW, delves into the unsettling trends of global political risk and the decline of the rules-based international order. He discusses how this decline affects peace, democracy, and foreign investment, using Malawi's military coup as a historical reference. The conversation also highlights China's rising influence and the shifting dynamics in bilateral investment treaties. Wilkin emphasizes the need for businesses to adapt strategies to navigate increasing political uncertainties in a multipolar world.

Carbon is tipped to become ‘the next cyber’ for insurance, a future trillion dollar market, as organisations launch net zero projects to curb climate change and trade carbon credits. Most carbon investment comes from the West, but most carbon projects happen in the Global South. This episode features James Kench, head of insurance at Kita, a Lloyd's MGA that insures carbon, and is launching a new political risk product for this beguiling new growth market.  

Political risk experts Finn McGuirk and Maximilian Hess discuss the challenges of a multipolar world on financial markets, including the weaponization of the global financial system. They analyze the impact of emerging players like China, the importance of international arbitration in resolving disputes, and the evolving dynamics of global finance. The discussion also highlights the influence of bilateral support on emerging markets, the strategic moves of China and Russia, and the role of recoveries in financial transactions in understanding the global economy.

An episode dedicated to political risk and investor confidence in a selection of African territories, featuring Africa Specialty Risks’ head of political risk & trade credit, Genevieve Ahinful, and senior liability underwriter, Tyrone Hopwood. South Africa has a new coalition government. Rwanda is preparing for an election in July. Kenya has debt and supply chain issues. Egypt faces macroeconomic concerns. Ghana goes to the polls in December and faces debt restructuring. Essential listening!

Featuring Tom Clementi, CEO of Pool Re, the UK's government-backed mutual reinsurance fund for terrorism risk. We discuss freshly agreed plans to transform Pool Re's operating model into a treaty reinsurer. Tom also talks about the IFTRIP 2024 international meeting of terrorism pools, hosted by the US Treasury. Cyber reinsurance and the role of government-backed PPPs like Pool Re was on the agenda in DC, and is also the focus of an industry consultation with Pool Re in the UK.

War risk insurance experts Michael Burle and Neil Roberts discuss challenges in insuring ships amidst Houthi attacks, Somali piracy, and Ukrainian war risks. They explore market strategies, ethical dilemmas, and post-conflict rebuilding in Ukraine, along with evolving threats in the Red Sea like piracy and surveillance efforts.

Michael Feller, partner at Geopolitical Strategy, discusses the decline of Pax Americana and the concept of living in a period of geopolitical interregnum. Topics include the transition from Pax Americana to uncertain global power dynamics, potential impacts of US secondary sanctions on Middle Eastern countries, and exploring future scenarios for US power and global stability.

Carla Jordan and Rafic Abi Saleh discuss South Africa's political future, election dynamics, Santam's diverse business segments, political violence insurance market trends, global impacts, and the role of brokers in risk management in the Middle East and Africa markets.