The Political Risk Podcast

Marvin Barth is creator of Thematic Markets, providing independent research and analytics on the global political economy. An economics PhD, he has worked as an economist, strategist and portfolio manager at big banks and asset managers, and across the policy spectrum, including the Federal Reserve, US Treasury and the Bank for International Settlements. Our conversation focuses on the political and geopolitical fallout of Donald Trump's shock landslide Presidential Election victory. But Trump's win wasn’t so much of a surprise to Marvin, because he accurately predicted it. https://thematicmarkets.substack.com/

Dan Callow is lead underwriter for political violence, terrorism and war lines of business at specialty insurer and reinsurer IQUW. The political violence market can be characterised as competitive. Pricing is soft and driven by a growing number of insurance companies collectively offering a large volume of direct and facultative capacity. The underlying risks are best described as volatile, with a lot of exposure to war and civil unrest risks in hotspots like the Middle East.

A special episode, in association with Mosaic Insurance, focused on the political violence outlook for the US Presidential Election set for November 5 2024. Tina Fordham is a geopolitical strategist and advisor, and founder of Fordham Global Foresight. Adam McGrath is the global head of war, terrorism and political violence at Mosaic.

Savannah Thompson is The Fidelis Partnership’s head of political risk and underwriting development. She’s also a great example of young female talent and career progression in the London market. In this episode we talk about: tips for industry joiners and her remarkable career so far; The Fidelis Partnership's new Syndicate 3123 at Lloyd’s; and the role of political risk in sustainability projects, particularly re/insuring Debt for Nature Swaps with countries like Ecuador, restructuring sovereign debt in return for conservation commitments to ensure ecological treasures such as the Galapagos Islands are nurtured for the future.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s mining industry is highly exposed to political risk and particularly expropriatory acts by host governments. In this special episode, in association with Gallagher Specialty, Rupert Morgan, Executive Director, Structured Credit and Political Risks, Arthur J. Gallagher International, focuses on five countries: Burkina Faso; Mali; Ghana; Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania. The ep coincides with the Africa Down Under conference in Perth, Australia, and the Q3 publication of Gallagher Specialty’s Structured Credit and Political Risk Insurance Market Update.

The CrowdStrike outage is the latest cyber event to leave underwriters fearing unforeseen catastrophe scenarios and questioning cyber risk aggregations. But could the dramatic headlines and re/insurance buzz about cyber cat be a whole lot of hyperbole? Tom Johansmeyer, global head of index classes, Price Forbes Re, and a POLIR PhD candidate at the University of Kent, Canterbury, certainly thinks so.

Sam Wilkin, director of political risk analytics at WTW, delves into the unsettling trends of global political risk and the decline of the rules-based international order. He discusses how this decline affects peace, democracy, and foreign investment, using Malawi's military coup as a historical reference. The conversation also highlights China's rising influence and the shifting dynamics in bilateral investment treaties. Wilkin emphasizes the need for businesses to adapt strategies to navigate increasing political uncertainties in a multipolar world.

Carbon is tipped to become ‘the next cyber’ for insurance, a future trillion dollar market, as organisations launch net zero projects to curb climate change and trade carbon credits. Most carbon investment comes from the West, but most carbon projects happen in the Global South. This episode features James Kench, head of insurance at Kita, a Lloyd's MGA that insures carbon, and is launching a new political risk product for this beguiling new growth market.  

Political risk experts Finn McGuirk and Maximilian Hess discuss the challenges of a multipolar world on financial markets, including the weaponization of the global financial system. They analyze the impact of emerging players like China, the importance of international arbitration in resolving disputes, and the evolving dynamics of global finance. The discussion also highlights the influence of bilateral support on emerging markets, the strategic moves of China and Russia, and the role of recoveries in financial transactions in understanding the global economy.

An episode dedicated to political risk and investor confidence in a selection of African territories, featuring Africa Specialty Risks’ head of political risk & trade credit, Genevieve Ahinful, and senior liability underwriter, Tyrone Hopwood. South Africa has a new coalition government. Rwanda is preparing for an election in July. Kenya has debt and supply chain issues. Egypt faces macroeconomic concerns. Ghana goes to the polls in December and faces debt restructuring. Essential listening!