The Political Risk Podcast

Charles Hecker spent forty years travelling and working in the Soviet Union and Russia as a political risk consultant and journalist. He is the author of ‘Zero Sum: The Arc of International Business in Russia’. We discuss this acclaimed new book and draw lessons from the highs and lows of doing business in post-Soviet Russia, from communism to capitalism, and to the exodus of three years ago. There’s also time to think about the postwar future, including potential conditions for a return to Russia by some Western firms, if the geopolitical mood-music changes and should sanctions be lifted.

Srdjan Todorovic is head of political violence and hostile environment solutions at Allianz Commercial. In this episode we talk through the Allianz Risk Barometer 2025. Geopolitics is a recurring theme throughout the report, and our conversation focuses on three of its top ten ranked risks, including business interruption, cyber risk, and political risk and political violence. We discuss the hot topic of state-sponsored sabotage operations, representing a serious risk management challenge for commercial clients, while provoking questions for underwriters across several lines of business. Lastly, here’s the link to the Allianz Risk Barometer. https://commercial.allianz.com/news-and-insights/reports/allianz-risk-barometer.html

The insurance industry and the private sector are on the frontline of hybrid warfare, already a big news story in 2025. Elisabeth Braw is a journalist and author focused on responses to ‘Gray-zone’ aggression, including sabotage operations, cyber-attacks and damaging subsea cables. She is a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative, and a senior associate fellow at the European Leadership Network. She is the author of “Goodbye Globalization: The Return of a Divided World” and “The Defender’s Dilemma: Identifying and Deterring Gray-Zone Aggression”. Her next book, “The Undersea War”, is due out in 2026. Elisabeth is also a columnist for Foreign Policy and Politico Europe, plus a podcaster for WTW’s “Geopolcast”.

Southeast Asia is at the forefront of Asia Pacific geopolitics, with the US and China vying for influence. Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia recently became BRICS ‘partner countries’. The Philippines has tilted towards the US since Bongbong Marcos took office, and regularly clashes with China to defend its maritime borders. Meanwhile, several ASEAN countries are developing a biometric cross-border ‘Schengen’ visa, but focused on tax, immigration and security concerns. This episodes features Aidan Mooney, senior intelligence analyst, and Adrian Poole-Robb, managing director for Asia business development, KCS Group Asia.

A special episode, in association with Mosaic, focused on the integrity of borders amid a volatile new ‘age of secession’. Mark Wheeler is co-CEO and co-founder of next-gen specialty insurer Mosaic Insurance. Dr Timothy Less is a senior advisor for geopolitics at Cambridge University’s Centre for Risk Studies, and previously worked in the British Diplomatic Service. The thawing out of frozen conflicts in the Balkans represents a ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’, Tim argues, for resurging great power competition and attempts to redraw borders globally. Link to Tim’s “Age of Secession” CIRSD article below. https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-summer-2024--issue-no-27/the-new-age-of-secession

Infrastructure is on the frontline of so-called ‘grey zone’ tactics used by government-sponsored actors, including cyber-attacks that can be aimed at disruption, theft and corporate espionage, meaning businesses should be vigilant and resilient against the threats. Which is where AnotherDay comes in, as a Gallagher company and specialist crisis and risk management consultancy. Sneha Nichols‑Dawda is a cyber risk consultant at AnotherDay, with a background in cyber security, technology policy and governance, and was previously a researcher at defence and security think-tank The Royal United Services Institute. She has previously appeared in media such as Times Radio and Channel 4 News, providing insights into cyber security issues and events, and holds a Masters from the University of Sheffield in Global Security, and a Bachelors degree from Aberystwyth University in International Politics.

Marvin Barth is creator of Thematic Markets, providing independent research and analytics on the global political economy. An economics PhD, he has worked as an economist, strategist and portfolio manager at big banks and asset managers, and across the policy spectrum, including the Federal Reserve, US Treasury and the Bank for International Settlements. Our conversation focuses on the political and geopolitical fallout of Donald Trump's shock landslide Presidential Election victory. But Trump's win wasn’t so much of a surprise to Marvin, because he accurately predicted it. https://thematicmarkets.substack.com/

Dan Callow is lead underwriter for political violence, terrorism and war lines of business at specialty insurer and reinsurer IQUW. The political violence market can be characterised as competitive. Pricing is soft and driven by a growing number of insurance companies collectively offering a large volume of direct and facultative capacity. The underlying risks are best described as volatile, with a lot of exposure to war and civil unrest risks in hotspots like the Middle East.

A special episode, in association with Mosaic Insurance, focused on the political violence outlook for the US Presidential Election set for November 5 2024. Tina Fordham is a geopolitical strategist and advisor, and founder of Fordham Global Foresight. Adam McGrath is the global head of war, terrorism and political violence at Mosaic.

Savannah Thompson is The Fidelis Partnership’s head of political risk and underwriting development. She’s also a great example of young female talent and career progression in the London market. In this episode we talk about: tips for industry joiners and her remarkable career so far; The Fidelis Partnership's new Syndicate 3123 at Lloyd’s; and the role of political risk in sustainability projects, particularly re/insuring Debt for Nature Swaps with countries like Ecuador, restructuring sovereign debt in return for conservation commitments to ensure ecological treasures such as the Galapagos Islands are nurtured for the future.